North Carolina Tar Heels vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction and Picks - November 29, 2025
ACC Saturday evening, College football action, and we have a North Carolina vs NC State prediction locked and loaded for you. The Tar Heels are off a 32-25 loss at home to Duke, which dropped them to 4-7 on the year. There will be no bowl for Belichick. NC State comes in at 6-5 on the year and off a 21-11 home win over Florida State. NC State has won the last four games in this series. Can the Heels break the string? Read on to see our North Carolina vs NC State prediction.
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The Heels Are Out Of The Bowl Picture
North Carolina’s last game was a 32-25 loss to Duke on November 22, a rivalry matchup where the Tar Heels fought hard but couldn’t hold off a late Blue Devils surge. Quarterback Gio Lopez threw for 204 yards and a touchdown, while Jordan Shipp caught eight passes for 83 yards and a score. Running back Davion Gause added a 12-yard touchdown run, but UNC’s defense gave up three rushing scores to Anderson Castle, including the game-winner with just over two minutes left.
The Tar Heels have struggled to find consistency this season, averaging 305 total yards in that Duke game and sitting at 4-7 overall. Lopez has been steady, completing 65% of his passes for over 1,600 yards, but the offense has lacked explosive plays. Shipp has been the most reliable target with 581 receiving yards and five touchdowns, while Gause and Omarion Hampton have rotated in the backfield. UNC’s offensive line has been inconsistent, leading to stalled drives, and penalties have been a recurring issue, as seen against Duke where they committed 12 for 103 yards.
Defensively, North Carolina has allowed too many big plays, giving up 352 yards to Duke and struggling to contain the run. Defensive Lineman Melkart Abou-Jaoude has been a bright spot with 10 sacks, but the secondary has been vulnerable, allowing opponents to convert key third downs. The Tar Heels have talent, but their inability to finish games has cost them in close matchups. Heading into Raleigh, they’ll need to tighten up defensively and rely on Lopez’s efficiency to keep pace with NC State’s balanced attack.
Defense Stands Tall Against FSU
NC State’s most recent game was a 21-11 win over Florida State on November 21, a gritty performance that secured bowl eligibility. Quarterback CJ Bailey threw for 152 yards and two touchdowns, including a late strike to tight end Justin Joly that sealed the victory. Running back Will Wilson added a one-yard touchdown run, and the defense forced four turnovers, including two interceptions by cornerback Devon Marshall.
The Wolfpack offense has been steady, averaging 362.5 yards per game and scoring 22.7 points per contest. Bailey has been the leader, throwing for 2,683 yards with 21 touchdowns, while Terrell Anderson has been his top target with 596 receiving yards and five scores. The ground game has leaned on Hollywood Smothers, who has rushed for 907 yards and six touchdowns, giving NC State balance. While not explosive, the offense has shown the ability to sustain long drives, as seen in the 15-play, nine-minute march against FSU that gave them control of the game.
Defensively, NC State has been solid, allowing 377.9 yards per game but tightening in key moments. Linebacker Caden Fordham leads the team with 118 tackles, and Marshall’s performance against FSU highlighted the secondary’s ability to step up. The Wolfpack have allowed 30.5 points per game overall, but their opportunistic defense has kept them competitive. Against North Carolina, they’ll look to pressure Lopez and force turnovers, while leaning on Smothers and Bailey to control tempo. With bowl eligibility secured, NC State has momentum heading into this rivalry clash.
North Carolina vs NC State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +706.00 |
North Carolina vs NC State Spread Pick
- North Carolina +7 (4 Units)
North Carolina +7 has value because the Tar Heels’ defense has quietly been the steadier unit, holding Duke to just 352 total yards last week despite the loss and keeping themselves in games with timely stops. Linebacker Melkart Abou-Jaoude has been disruptive with 10 sacks, and the secondary has shown flashes of tightening up in key moments. Offensively, Gio Lopez has been efficient enough to sustain drives, and Jordan Shipp gives them a reliable target who can move the chains. That combination of defensive grit and offensive balance makes UNC capable of hanging around in a rivalry game where emotions run high.
On the flip side, NC State has already locked in bowl eligibility, which can sometimes lead to a flatter performance in a rivalry spot. Their offense has been steady but not explosive, averaging 22.7 points per game, and while CJ Bailey has been solid, the Wolfpack rely heavily on Hollywood Smothers to establish the run. If UNC’s front seven can limit Smothers and force Bailey into obvious passing downs, the Tar Heels’ defense can keep this within striking distance. With the spread sitting at +7, North Carolina’s ability to grind out possessions and play spoiler makes them a live underdog in this matchup.
North Carolina vs NC State Over/Under Pick
- Under 48 (5 Units)
The Under 48 feels like the right angle because both North Carolina and NC State have leaned on defenses that can slow tempo, even if their offenses have shown flashes. The Tar Heels are averaging just 26 points per game while giving up long stretches of stalled drives, and NC State has been steady but not explosive, sitting at 22.7 points per contest. Rivalry games between these two often tighten up, with physical play at the line of scrimmage and turnovers shaping momentum. With UNC’s defense capable of keeping Gio Lopez and company in striking distance, and the Wolfpack relying on methodical drives rather than quick strikes, this matchup profiles as a grind that stays below the number.
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