North Carolina Tar Heels vs. UCF Knights Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 20th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) meet the UCF Knights (2-0, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) in an inter-conference showdown on Saturday afternoon, and we have everything you need to know and the prediction. The Tar Heels earned a home win against Richmond last week. The Knights beat NC A&T in week two and had a bye last week.
Can the Tar Heels record their third win of the season on Saturday? Keep reading for the Tar Heels vs. Knights prediction. When it comes to college football selections, our NCAAF Predictions are stellar.
North Carolina Targets Third Win
The North Carolina Tar Heels are seeking their third win. It was a rough debut for the Tar Heels' new coach, Bill Belichick. The Hall of Fame coach and his Tar Heels were charged with a 48-14 home loss by a good TCU team in their home opener. The schedule was easier the next two weeks. The Tar Heels beat Charlotte by 20-3 in week two, and last week, they posted a 41-6 home win against Richmond to cover the 24-point spread. The Tar Heels have covered the spread in two of three games.
The Tar Heels have used two QBs. Gio Lopez is the #1 QB ahead of Max Johnson. Lopez posted 119 passing yards last week and has amassed 343 passing yards with three touchdowns. Senior Max Johnson has a ton of experience in the SEC and amassed 103 yards against TCU, but has not played in the last two games.
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UNC will run more than pass. Demon June did not play in the opener and was outstanding in the win last week, amassing 148 rushing yards. He has posted 200 rushing yards in two games. Caleb Hood did not see any carries last week. The senior back has 46 rushing yards. Jordan Shipp has been outstanding. The sophomore WR had brought in 52 or more receiving yards in two of three games. The sophomore WR leads the squad with 149 receiving yards. The North Carolina offense netted 312 total yards last week and is averaging 279 yards per game on the season.
The Tar Heels' defense was exposed in a big way in the opener against TCU, squandering 542 yards. They have not been challenged in their last two games against weak opposition. They kept Richmond to 199 yards. The Tar Heels are conceding an average of 337 yards. Linebacker Andrew Simpson has been a threat, making 20 tackles. The pass defense has been competitive, standing 64th. The rush defense is 72nd.
North Carolina is averaging 25 points on the young season, marking them 88th. The Tar Heels have kept the opposition to an average of 19 points, placing them 55th.
UCF Remains Undefeated in Easy Win
The Central Florida Knights are attempting to improve to 3-0 on the young season. UCF has enjoyed a very easy schedule to begin the year. First, they hosted Jacksonville State and came away with a 17-10 win, but did not cover the big 20.5-point spread. Next, the Knights issued a 68-7 home win against North Carolina A&T of the FCS in a clash that had the Knights marked as mammoth 37-point favorites. UCF had an early bye last week.
UCF uses two QBs. Tayven Jackson is in his first year under center with UCF. The junior QB spent last season with Indiana but was not the starter. Jackson was sharp in the season opener, but only converted on 57% of his passes against NC A&T in week two. Jackson has racked up 471 passing yards with a 2:0 TD to INT ratio in two games. Cam Fancher has missed the last few games due to a back injury. The senior QB has recovered, but UCF has not stated whether Jackson or Fancher will start this game.
UCF has opted for the run over the pass. Jaden Nixon has amassed 150 rushing yards. Myles Montgomery has seen most of the carries. The senior RB has posted 293 yards last season and already has 114 rushing yards this year. UCF is seeking an identity from its receiving core after most of the group from last season graduated. Duane Thomas Jr. is being targeted heavily. The junior WR has recorded 117 yards. DJ Black is just behind with 86 yards. The UCF offense is posting an average of 491 yards per game.
The Knights' defense has been superb so far, but has yet to be challenged by a potent offense. They kept NC A&T to just 200 yards and an average of 261 in two games. Lewis Carter transferred from Oklahoma and has nine tackles. The Knights have posted two sacks. The pass defense has been dominant, ranking third, while the rush defense has been a weakness, rating 102nd.
UCF is scoring an average of 42.5 points in two games, good for 24th. They have kept their opponents to an average of just 8.5 points, good for 10th.
North Carolina vs. UCF Pick
Spread Pick for North Carolina vs. UCF
- North Carolina +6.5 (5 units)
The North Carolina Tar Heels are getting a ton of press due to new head coach Bill Belichick. The first game was against a potent TCU squad, and the young group was still learning Belichick’s new systems. The squad has recovered from that one by winning two games in a row, including a dominating 20-3 win against Charlotte. The UCF Knights have only played two games, which I view as a disadvantage early in the season.
Furthermore, North Carolina has opted for the run over the pass by a big margin. This is key when considering the Knights' rush defense has been exposed. They are squandering an average of 162.5 rushing yards, pegging them 102nd. This is worrisome considering the easy opposition the Knights' defense has seen so far against Jacksonville State and NC A&T. UCF is unproven. This is a squad that won just two conference games last year. UCF is not a contender; they are expected to be near the bottom of the Big 12.
Over/Under Pick for North Carolina vs. UCF
- Over 47 (5 units)
I expect this one to have a ton of scoring, especially considering this lower number. The Tar Heels surrendered 48 points in the opener. While I don’t expect the Tar Heels' defense to give up that many in this game, the pass defense is subpar, rating 65th. UCF QB Tayven Jackson has managed 471 passing yards in two games.
In addition, UCF has a quick offense, ranking 40th in the country in offensive plays per game. Offensively, North Carolina should have their best game of the season. North Carolina is finding a groove after learning the new playbook, posting 41 points last week. This is by far the best offense the Knights have seen this season. The over is 4-1 in the Tar Heels' past five games.
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