North Texas Mean Green at Charlotte 49ers Picks and Prediction for Friday, October 24, 2025
After playing three straight home games, the North Texas Mean Green (6-1, 2-1 AAC) will hit the road Friday night to face the Charlotte 49ers (1-6, 0-4 AAC) at Jerry Richardson Stadium. These teams have met twice all-time, with Charlotte winning both matchups in 2019 and 2020.
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Mean Green poses problems for the 49ers
After suffering their first loss of the season, a 63-36 setback to South Florida on Oct. 10, North Texas bounced back dominantly with a 55-17 rout of UTSA. The Mean Green outgained the Roadrunners 584-329 in total yards, showing impressive balance with 270 rushing yards and 314 passing yards.
Running back Caleb Hawkins led the ground game with 133 yards on 18 carries, while quarterback Drew Mestemaker went 22 of 35 for 277 yards and four touchdowns. Wide receiver Wyatt Young had a big night, catching six passes for 102 yards and three scores.
Mestemaker is one of the best stories in college football. He’s now the starting quarterback at North Texas, but he never started a varsity game in high school. His last full-time starting job before joining the Mean Green was on the freshman B team at Vandegrift High School in Austin, Texas.
The North Texas offense has been one of the most explosive in the nation, averaging 45.0 points per game to rank first in the FBS. Mestemaker has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,860 yards with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. On the ground, the duo of Hawkins and Makenzie McGill III has been highly effective. Both have 75 carries this season, with Hawkins leading with 499 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, while McGill has added 389 yards and five scores.
Defensively, North Texas has shown steady improvement. The unit ranks 57th nationally in total defense (355.7 yards per game allowed), excelling against the pass (eighth, 152.6 yards) while remaining vulnerable against the run (127th, 203.1 yards). Linebacker Shane Whitter leads the team with 57 tackles. Overall, North Texas ranks 33rd in interceptions per game and 36th in sacks per game, with the secondary recording seven picks.
Charlotte's season has been a mess
Charlotte has lost four straight games and is coming off a 49–14 homecoming loss to Temple. The program is in its first season under head coach Tim Albin, who took over after a successful run at Ohio University. Albin earned two MAC Coach of the Year honors and posted three consecutive 10-win seasons with the Bobcats before joining the 49ers.
Albin inherited a major rebuilding project. The 49ers rank near the bottom nationally in both scoring offense (17.1 points per game, 128th) and rushing (107.1 yards per game, 120th). The ground game has lacked consistency, with no feature back emerging. Rod Gainey Jr. leads the team with 201 rushing yards and one touchdown, while CJ Stokes, Cameren Smith, and Jariel Cobb have shared limited carries behind an underperforming offensive line.
Starting quarterback Conner Harrell suffered a season-ending injury, leaving Zach Wilcke and Grayson Loftis to share time under center. Loftis has completed 48.3 percent of his passes for 471 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Wilcke has connected on 69.2 percent of his attempts for 242 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
Defensively, the 49ers haven't been any better. allowing 438.4 total yards per game (124th nationally) and 216.6 rushing yards per game (134th). A weak front seven and inconsistent secondary have left them vulnerable to big plays. 
North Texas at Charlotte Predictions
ATS Pick for North Texas vs. Charlotte:
- North Texas Mean Green -27 (4 units)
Charlotte’s lack of offensive consistency and inability to stop the run or pass set up poorly against North Texas’ high-octane attack. With the Mean Green’s top-ranked scoring offense and deep running back rotation, expect them to take control early and never look back. Although the Mean Green's defense is vulnerable against the run, the 49ers lack the power run game to exploit it, and they also don’t have the passing game to open things up, or catch up once behind. The Mean Green should comfortably surpass 50 points as they cover the large number.
Total Pick for North Texas vs. Charlotte
- Over 61.5 (4 units)
This game profiles as a high-tempo, high-scoring contest. North Texas operates at one of the nation’s fastest offensive paces (22nd in plays per minute), while Charlotte ranks 47th, ensuring plenty of total snaps. Despite Charlotte’s offensive struggles, their tempo and frequent three-and-outs will create additional possessions for the nation’s most efficient scoring team. With North Texas likely pushing the scoreboard toward 50 points themselves, even minimal garbage-time scoring from Charlotte should drive the total over. I'm expecting a North Texas win in the range of 52-14.
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