North Texas vs Texas State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 19, 2026

The North Texas Mean Green visit the Texas State Bobcats on Saturday at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, with the opening kickoff at 12:00 PM ET and televised on USA Network. The Mean Green are 1-1 and 0-0 in American Conference play after a 44-6 win over UNLV. The Bobcats are 0-2 and 0-0 in Pac-12 play after a 31-26 loss to UTSA. North Texas rebounded from a 52-16 road loss to Indiana, while Texas State is still searching for its first victory after opening with a 59-7 loss at Texas. Check out our free NCAAF picks.

North Texas Mean Green Coming Off a Dominant Home Win

North Texas responded to its opening loss with its best performance of the season against UNLV. Tayven Jackson has completed 37 of 54 passes for 425 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, completing 68.5 percent of his attempts. The Mean Green have 476 passing yards and 335 rushing yards. Jahiem White leads the ground attack with 185 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. Brendon Haygood has added 64 yards and one touchdown on 18 carries.

Corri Milliner leads the receiving corps with seven catches for 131 yards, averaging 18.7 yards per reception, while Justin Stevenson has 90 yards on four catches. White has also contributed nine receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. North Texas has recorded four sacks and one interception on defense. CJ Coombes leads the Mean Green with 17 tackles, while Zakye Barker has 14. David Onuoha has recorded 1.5 sacks, and Bryce Garza has the team’s interception.

Injuries: No injuries to report.

Texas State Bobcats Searching for Their First Victory

Texas State played a much closer game against UTSA after its difficult opener at Texas. Brad Jackson has completed 32 of 53 passes for 342 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. The Bobcats have done more damage on the ground, rushing for 450 yards at 4.9 yards per attempt. Torrance Burgess Jr. leads Texas State with 183 yards on 29 carries, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. Davian Jackson has added 128 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries.

Kylen Evans leads Texas State’s receivers with 102 yards on six catches, while Chris Dawn Jr. has 11 receptions for 94 yards and the Bobcats’ only receiving touchdown. Tucker Cusano has added 83 yards while averaging 20.8 yards per reception. Defensively, Texas State has recorded only one sack and one interception. Jayden Lawton leads the Bobcats with 18 tackles, followed by Ryan Nolan with 17. Nolan also has the interception, while Tymere Jackson has recorded the team’s lone sack.

Injuries: Z. Sample, J. Sample and B. Sparks are questionable with undisclosed injuries.

North Texas vs Texas State Key to the Game

Texas State needs to limit North Texas on early downs and make Tayven Jackson work from longer situations. North Texas has averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt as a team, while White has averaged 7.1 yards per rush. Texas State has recorded only one sack, so creating pressure will be important against a quarterback completing 68.5 percent of his throws. The Bobcats can answer with Burgess and Davian Jackson on the ground, but slowing the Mean Green offense will be a big challenge.

North Texas vs Texas State Game Pick

• North Texas +3 (-118)

North Texas +3 is the pick after the Mean Green produced a convincing 44-6 response against UNLV. Tayven Jackson has completed 68.5% of his passes with only one interception, while White has averaged 7.1 yards per carry. Texas State has allowed 90 points across two losses and has recorded just one sack. The Bobcats have a productive rushing attack, but Brad Jackson has thrown three interceptions. North Texas has shown more balance on offense and has enough playmakers to stay within the number or win outright.

North Texas vs Texas State Over/Under Pick

• Over 63.5 (-110)

Over 63.5 is the pick, with each offense showing enough production to create a high-scoring game. North Texas scored 44 against UNLV and has averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt, while Texas State scored 26 against UTSA after struggling at Texas. The Bobcats have rushed for 450 yards, led by Burgess at 6.3 yards per carry, and North Texas has 811 combined passing and rushing yards. With both teams featuring productive rushing attacks and several receiving options, the scoring will cash over 63.5.