North Texas vs. Tulane, Odds, Picks and Prediction, Friday, December 5th, 2025
The North Texas Mean Green (11-1) and the #24 Tulane Green Wave (10-2) play the AAC Conference Championship Game on Friday night, with a trip to the College Football Playoff possibly on the line in this North Texas vs. Tulane prediction. When these teams met last season, Tulane pulled out a high-scoring 45-37 win on the road. North Texas finished the season with a 52-25 home win over Temple, covering the 20.5-point spread in the process. Tulane cruised to an easy 27-0 home win over Charlotte, but missed the cover as 31-point favorites. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST and can be found on ABC. Keep reading for our North Texas vs. Tulane prediction, and keep up with all of our best College Football Picks!
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North Texas Has Just One Loss
The North Texas Mean Green almost ran the table this season, suffering only one loss on their road to the AAC Championship Game. Their loss came against South Florida, back when the Bulls were ranked 24th in the nation, and that same South Florida team already had wins over #25 Boise State and #13 Florida. USF took some losses after that game, as North Texas ran the table the rest of the way, coming into this matchup after six straight wins. In their last game, Drew Mestemaker passed for 366 yards and three touchdowns in their dismantling of Temple.
Mestemaker is having a strong season as their redshirt freshman quarterback. He exploded onto the scene this year with 3,835 passing yards and a very strong 29-4 TD-INT ratio. He is completing 70.9% of his passes this year, and is primarily a pocket passer as he has only rushed for 57 yards this season. Mestemaker is getting a lot of attention from bigger schools, hoping to land a high-profile transfer in the offseason, but Mestemaker has not made any announcements about his future yet. Their top running back is also a freshman, as Caleb Hawkins has 1,216 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns on the year. Hawkins ran for over 180 yards in three of his last four games.
Wyatt Young has been their top pass catcher. The 6'0 sophomore receiver leads the team with 1,203 yards on 62 receptions with ten touchdowns. Their defensive unit has 23 sacks on the year, led by defensive lineman Keviyan Huddleston with five. They have generated 13 interceptions, with four different members of the secondary tied at the top with two interceptions each.
Injury Report for North Texas:
- Out: LB Shane Whitter (58 tackles)
- Questionable: DL Briceon Hayes (30 tackles), RB Jayden Becks (87 rushing yards)
Green Wave Hold the Final Spot
The Tulane Green Wave are projected to grab the final spot in the College Football Playoff as the Group of Five representative. They are currently the only Group of Five team that the committee ranked in the top 25, but would still need to win this game to advance. The only other team with a chance is James Madison, but they are likely to get left out due to the strength of schedule. In Tulane's last game, Jake Retzlaff passed for 291 yards but threw two interceptions in their win over Charlotte.
Retzlaff is their 6'1 junior quarterback playing in his first season with the team. He transferred over from BYU, where he was the starter last season. So far this year, he has 2,717 passing yards with 14 touchdown passes against six interceptions. He is completing 62.6% of his passes, but makes up for it with his ground game. Retzlaff is the leading rusher on the team with 561 yards on the ground to go with another 14 touchdowns. When he does hand the ball off, his best option is freshman Javin Gordon, who has contributed 479 yards and five touchdowns.
Shazz Preston has been the top receiver for the Green Wave; he has 36 catches for 582 yards with four touchdowns. The team has 29 sacks on the season, with linebackers Harvey Dyson and Jordan Norman both leading the way with six. The defense has 12 interceptions, with Jahiem Johnson helping to lead the way with three out of the secondary.
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Key Injury Report for Tulane:
- Out: DL Gerrod Henderson (20 tackles)
- Questionable: WR Bryce Bohanon (417 receiving yards), S Jack Tchienchou (68 tackles)
Betting Trends for North Texas vs. Tulane
North Texas is:
- 6-0 ATS last 6 games.
- 6-1 Over last 7 games.
- 5-0 Over last 5 on the road.
Tulane is:
- 7-2 Under last 9 games.
North Texas vs. Tulane Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for North Texas vs. Tulane
- North Texas -2.5 (4 units)
The weather looks clear for this AAC Championship game, which will allow the more explosive offensive team to put on a strong performance on its way to a win. This game is likely a College Football Playoff play-in game, as the winner is projected to grab the Group of Five spot. North Texas has won their last six games and has only lost to one opponent this season, which was a ranked team. Tulane took a bad loss to UTSA, and their offense can stall out as Retzlaff is connecting on under 63% of his passes this season. Mestemaker has been much more efficient while completing over 70% of his passes, and has a running back and a wide receiver who have each gone over 1,200 yards this season. The Mean Green roll here.
Take North Texas to win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for North Texas vs. Tulane
- Over 66 (4 units)
This game will be a shootout, with both coaches taking risks on their way to try to push the ball down the field. This is the biggest game of their lives for most players on the team, as North Texas and Tulane do not typically get the nationally televised spot in a prime-time game. Each quarterback has been putting up impressive numbers, but in different ways, as Mestemaker has over 3,800 passing yards, while Retzlaff has 14 rushing touchdowns. Tulane has scored 26 or more in each of its last five games, while North Texas has been unstoppable lately, scoring over 50 points in each of their last three games. Expect more of the same here.
Take the over.
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