Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Northern Illinois Huskies will play the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Week 4 NCAAF action. The Bulldogs are 21.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 50 points scored. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET.
This Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State prediction highlights a Huskies team that split their first two games and a Bulldogs squad that is off to an undefeated start. This is the first-ever football matchup between these programs.
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Northern Illinois gets it done on the ground
Northern Illinois (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, and 0-2 O/U) beat FCS Holy Cross 19-17 in its season opener, but fell 20-9 to Maryland in Week 2. The Huskies were off last week and return home for games against San Diego State and Miami (OH) after their road trip to Starkville.
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UNI held around with Maryland in the first half, but couldn't pull off another Week 2 upset, as they did last season at Notre Dame. The Terps were just 3-for-12 on third down and lost the turnover and time-of-possession battles. Northern Illinois rushed for 180 yards, as sophomore RB Telly Johnson Jr. scored on a 74-yard run in the third quarter, but was ineffective through the air (91 passing yards).
Sophomore QB Josh Holst leads the Huskies' passing attack with 192 yards (65% CMP%), zero touchdowns, and one interception. His top receiving target is junior WR DeAree Rogers (ten receptions for 89 yards). Northern Illinois features two backs: senior Chavon Wright (38 carries for 167 yards and one TD) and Johnson Jr. (31 carries for 153 yards and one TD).
The Huskies score 19.0 points per game (115th) and average 558.0 total yards (9th), including 200.0 passing yards (89th) and 358.0 rushing yards (2nd). Northern Illinois' defense surrenders 17.0 points (44th) and 557.0 total yards (135th) per game, including 409.0 passing yards (136th) and 148.0 rushing yards (90th).
Northern Illinois Huskies Football Injury Report:
J. Williams DL Questionable - Undisclosed M. Armstrong CB Questionable - Undisclosed L. Ingold DL Questionable - Undisclosed G. Rumohr OG Questionable - Undisclosed L. Skartvedt OG Questionable - Undisclosed R. Taylor Jr. WR Questionable - Undisclosed J. Macon QB Questionable - Undisclosed L. Mahnesmith OG Questionable - Undisclosed
Mississippi State boasts a top-25 defense
Mississippi State (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, and 1-2 O/U) has picked up wins over Southern Miss (34-17), Arizona State (24-20), and Alcorn State (63-0). The Bulldogs have a challenging upcoming schedule after their date with the Huskies, including consecutive clashes against Tennessee and Texas A&M.
Mississippi State earned a key non-conference win in Week 2 against the Sun Devils. Senior QB Blake Shapen threw a 58-yard touchdown pass to senior WR Brenen Thompson with 30 seconds left to seal the win. It was a tale of two halves, as MSU led 17-3 at the half, but ASU stormed back with 20 straight points to take the lead with 1:38 remaining. It was State's first non-conference victory over a top-15 opponent since 1991.
Shapen directs the Bulldogs' offense with 724 passing yards (68% CMP%), six touchdowns, and two interceptions. His top receiving threats are Thompson (15 receptions for 278 yards and three TDs) and junior WR Anthony Evans III (17 receptions for 210 yards and two TDs). Sophomore RB Fluff Bothwell (30 carries for 170 yards and four TDs) and senior RB Davon Booth (27 carries for 127 yards and one TD) share the bulk of the Bulldogs' carries.
Mississippi State scores 40.3 points per game (30th) and averages 441.3 total yards (43rd), including 262.7 passing yards (40th) and 178.7 rushing yards (60th). The MSU defense allows 12.3 points (24th) and 265.0 total yards (28th) per game, including 124.7 passing yards (15th) and 140.3 rushing yards (81st).
Mississippi State Bulldogs Football Injury Report: W. Whitson DL Out - Undisclosed
Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State Pick
Spread Pick for Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State
- Northern Illinois +21.5 (5 Units)
UNI will keep the football on the ground in an effort to keep the score close. While they aren't dynamic, their run game is likely to be efficient enough to cover the spread against MSU. The Huskies are confident playing their style of game, and will make the Bulldogs play along, as they did last season against the Fighting Irish. I don't believe Mississippi State should be on upset alert, as the home team is well-balanced on offense and can be deadly through the air. However, the Huskies' determination will prevent the Bulldogs from winning by more than three touchdowns.
Over/Under Pick for Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State
- Under 50 (5 Units)
Northern Illinois ranks 19th nationally in time of possession, averaging 33:30 minutes per game. Last year, the Huskies ranked third in the country, averaging 33:21 minutes. Their run-oriented offense will be efficient enough to move the chains (they ranked 55th in third-down offense last season) and reduce Mississippi State's possession count. I don't anticipate a very low-scoring, close game, but the Huskies are confident and talented enough to dictate the style of play for a good portion of the matchup, preventing the total from reaching 50 points.
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