Ohio Bobcats vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction and Picks - October 4th, 2025
Use Code WWWC College Football within the MAC on Saturday afternoon, and we have an Ohio vs Ball State Prediction locked and loaded for you. The Bobcats are off to a nice 3-2 start, which includes a 35-20 home win over Bowling Green last week. Ball State has not been good so far as they are just 1-3 on the year and come in off a 31-25 road loss to UConn. Ohio has won the last five games in this series. Can they make it six in a row? Continue reading to see our Ohio vs Ball State prediction.
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Bobcats Rout Bowling Green
Ohio comes off a 35–20 win over Bowling Green, where quarterback Parker Navarro accounted for four total touchdowns and 274 yards. Navarro has thrown for 1,078 yards and eight touchdowns on 66.1% passing, while adding 321 rushing yards and three scores. The Bobcats rank 38th nationally in rushing offense (200.0 YPG) and 54th in total offense (419.4 YPG), with Sieh Bangura leading the ground game at 414 yards and four touchdowns. Chase Hendricks has emerged as the top receiving threat with 481 yards and four scores on 29 catches.
Offensively, Ohio has been efficient and explosive, averaging 28.8 points per game and converting 114 first downs. They’ve committed seven turnovers but rank top-25 in penalty discipline and time of possession (31:51). The Bobcats have scored 18 total touchdowns and average 6.9 yards per play, with a balanced attack that can stretch defenses vertically and grind out drives. Their red zone scoring and third-down conversion rates have improved, and they’ve covered in four of five games this season.
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Defensively, Ohio allows 27.2 points per game and 410.2 total yards (113th nationally), with major issues in pass coverage. They’ve given up 1,236 passing yards and rank 122nd in pass defense, allowing 67.6% completions and eight touchdowns. The run defense has been more stable, giving up 163.0 yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. Linebacker Michael Molnar leads the team with 31 tackles, while Jay Crable has four sacks and four TFLs. Against a Ball State offense that ranks bottom-five nationally in scoring, Ohio’s defense has a chance to reset.
Ball State Struggling On Both Sides Of The Ball
Ball State enters Week 6 off a 31–25 loss to UConn, where quarterback Kiael Kelly threw for 209 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 27 more. The Cardinals rank 132nd nationally in total offense (272.0 YPG) and 130th in scoring (15.5 PPG), with a passing attack that averages just 122.8 yards per game. Kelly has thrown for 472 yards and three touchdowns on 64.8% passing, while Qua Ashley leads the ground game with 295 yards and three scores. Donovan Hamilton and Eric Weatherly have combined for 161 receiving yards.
The Cardinals have struggled to sustain drives, converting just 32.7% of third downs (117th nationally) and committing four turnovers. They’ve scored only six total touchdowns and rank 132nd in passing offense and 83rd in rushing. Ball State has averaged 6.5 yards per play in their last outing but remains inconsistent in execution. Their time of possession (28:24) and penalty discipline (110th nationally) have contributed to short fields and defensive exposure.
Defensively, Ball State allows 33.3 points per game and 429.3 total yards (122nd nationally), with breakdowns in both phases. They’ve given up 262.8 passing yards per game (116th) and 166.5 rushing yards (102nd), allowing 11 total touchdowns and ranking bottom-10 in scoring defense. The Cardinals have a -3 turnover margin and limited pass rush, with just four sacks through four games. With Western Michigan on deck, this home test against a surging Ohio team is a critical moment for Ball State to show fight and avoid a fourth straight loss.
Ohio vs Ball State Pick
Ohio vs Ball State Spread Pick
- Ohio -14 (4 Units)
Ohio -14 is a sharp play against a Ball State team that ranks bottom-five nationally in scoring and total offense. The Bobcats have covered in four of five games and bring a balanced attack led by Parker Navarro and Sieh Bangura, who’ve combined for over 1,800 total yards and 12 touchdowns. Ball State, meanwhile, averages just 15.5 points per game and has scored only six touchdowns all season. With Ohio converting 114 first downs and ranking top-25 in time of possession, they’re built to control tempo and wear down a Cardinals defense that’s allowed 33.3 points per game.
This is also a trench mismatch. Ohio ranks 38th in rushing offense and averages 6.9 yards per play, while Ball State gives up 166.5 rushing yards per game and ranks 122nd in total defense. The Cardinals have a -3 turnover margin and just four sacks through four games, which sets up clean pockets and extended drives for Navarro. With Ohio’s red zone efficiency trending up and Ball State struggling to get off the field, the Bobcats are positioned to build margin and cover the number with methodical pressure.
Ohio vs Ball State Over/Under Pick
- Under 51 (5 Units)
The Under 51 makes sense with Ball State averaging just 15.5 points per game and ranking 132nd nationally in total offense. The Cardinals have scored only six touchdowns all season and struggle to sustain drives, converting just 32.7% of third downs. Ohio’s defense has been shaky in coverage but solid against the run, and their ball-control offense (31:51 TOP) limits possessions. Unless Ball State finds unexpected explosiveness, this game profiles as a one-sided grind that stalls short of the number.
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