Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State, Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 28, 2025
A pair of SEC programs collide on the gridiron in the Magnolia State as the #6 Ole Miss Rebels travel to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl Friday afternoon and we have you covered with our Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction. Ole Miss comes in off a bye week last week. The Rebels come in off a 34-24 win over Florida, pushing the line as a 10-point favorite, in their previous contest November 15. Mississippi State comes in off a bye last week. The Bulldogs were trounced 49-27 by Missouri on the road in their previous contest, failing to cover the line as a seven-point underdog. In the all-time series between the teams, the Bulldogs own a 66-46-6 advantage and have won the last two meetings, including a 26-14 home win in the most recent matchup November 29, 2024. Read more about this Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
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Ole Miss Trying to Lock Down CFP Spot
Ole Miss won their fourth straight game as they downed Florida in their previous contest before last week’s bye. The Rebels improved to 10-1 overall on the season and stand 6-1 in the SEC, leaving them third in the conference standings. Against Florida, Ole Miss led 10-0 in the first quarter only to struggle defensively in the opening half. The Rebels trailed 24-20 at the half and after three quarters before rallying. The Rebels took the lead on the first play of the fourth quarter and then put the game away with under two minutes to play. Ole Miss rolled up a 538-326 edge in total offense, picked up 27 first downs while allowing 14 and owned a 37:57 to 22:03 margin in time of possession. Both teams turned the ball over once in the contest.
On the year, the Rebels are 5th in the nation in passing offense with 305.1 yards per game through the air and 30th in rushing offense with 188.7 yards per contest on the ground this season. Ole Miss is 13th in the FBS in scoring offense with 37.2 points per game and ranks 29th in scoring defense by allowing 20.2 points per contest. Trinidad Chambliss is 195 of 299 passing for 2,657 yards with 14 scores against three interceptions while ranking second on the team with 444 rushing yards and six scores. Austin Siimmons (41 of 70, 680 yards, four TD, five INT, 77 rush yards, TD) has seen action as well. Kewan Lacy leads the ground attack with 231 carries for 1,136 yards and 19 scores. Logan Diggs (23 carries, 163 yards, three TD) and Damien Taylor (24 carries, 105 yards, two TD) have seen work as well. Harrison Wallace III leads the team with 42 receptions for 647 yards and two scores. Deuce Alexander (32 catches, 483 yards, TD), Dae’Quan Wright (28 grabs, 485 yards, four TD), Cayden Lee (26 receptions, 460 yards, three TD), Winston Watkins (21 catches, 332 yards, TD) and De’Zhaun Stribling (34 catches, 467 yards, three TD) are all over the 300-yard mark in receiving yards on the year. Lucas Carneiro is 43 of 43 on extra point attempts and 21 of 23 field goal attempts with a long of 54 this year. Mike Baker is three of three on extra points and has not attempted a field goal this season.
Key Injury Report for Ole Miss:
- No Key Injuries
Bulldogs Seeking Bowl Eligibility
Mississippi State started the year 4-0 but enter this game with two straight losses and six defeats in their last seven games as they were beaten by Missouri in their previous contest. The Bulldogs fell to 5-6 overall, 1-6 in conference play, and need a win here to earn bowl eligibility. Against Missouri, Mississippi State never led in the game as they trailed 14-10 after the opening quarter and 21-10 at the half. The Bulldogs got within 21-17 early in the third quarter but gave up the next 14 points to trail 35-17 with 5:47 to play in the third quarter. They never got closer than 11 the rest of the way en route to the loss. Mississippi State was beaten 438-367 in total offense despite picking up a 27-17 advantage in first downs and controlling the clock by a 36:42 to 23:18 margin. The Bulldogs turned the ball over three times, including a pair of pick-sixes, while forcing two takeaways in the contest.
On the year, the Bulldogs are 56th in the nation in passing offense with 242.1 yards per contest, while they are 74th in rushing offense by picking up 152.5 yards per contest. Mississippi State is 43rd in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 31.5 points per game while they are 93rd in scoring defense by allowing 28.4 points per contest. Blake Shapen has hit 195 of 303 passes for 2,433 yards with 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions while adding 28 yards plus three scores on the ground this season. Kamario Taylor (15 of 24, 210 yards, four TD, 222 rush yards, five TD) and Luke Kromenhoek (two of four, 20 yards, 24 rush yards, TD) are next in line on the depth chart. Fluff Bothwell leading the team in the run game with 111 carries for 559 yards and six scores this season. Davon Booth (133 carries, 547 yards, seven TD) and Xavier Gayten (22 carries, 141 yards, two TD) are also in the mix. Anthony Evans III leads the team with 63 receptions for 751 yards and four scores on the year. Brenen Thompson (47 catches, 868 yards, six TD), Jordan Mosley (eight grabs, 168 yards, TD), Seydou Traore (30 receptions, 291 yards, five TD), Booth (14 grabs, 158 yards, two TD) and Ayden Williams (17 catches, 209 yards) are other options for Shapen to target. Kyle Ferrie is 42 of 42 on extra points and 11 of 14 on field goal attempts with a long of 55 this season. Marlon Hauck is two of two on extra point attempts but has not attempted a field goal this year.
Key Injury Report for Mississippi State:
- No Key Injuries
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
- Ole Miss -6.5 (4 units)
Rivalry games are always competitive and this one should be no different. The Rebels have off-field concerns as Lane Kiffin’s status as far as where he will be coaching continues to swirl, with an announcement expected Saturday. With that said, Ole Miss still has plenty to play for at this point as they are in the mix for a potential CFP spot. Mississippi State started the year 4-0 but has dropped five of their last six entering this contest. The Bulldogs have dropped three conference games by at least 20 points and they have dropped four of the last five meetings entering this contest, three of which were by double figures. Ole Miss is motivated, and they do the job to earn their 11th win of the season.
Over/Under Pick for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
- Under 63 (5 units)
We have two high-octane offensive units on the field here but that doesn’t mean you’re going to have a bonanza of points. The Rebels are very good at limiting the opposition from putting points on the board, ranking 13th in the FBS in that category. Ole Miss has had the over post a 6-5 mark in their 11 games on the year. Mississippi State has also seen the over post a 6-5 mark in their 11 games on the year. The thing is, when these two teams collide, the defenses tend to step up and make plays. Eight straight meetings have left over bettors disappointed and this one is poised to follow suit. This total is too high, especially with the Rebels’ defense, to reach. Take the under in this contest as a result.
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