Penn State vs. Michigan State, Odds, Preview, Picks and Predictions, Saturday, November 15th, 2025
The Penn State Nittany Lions (3-6, 0-6 Big Ten) and the Michigan State Spartans (3-6, 0-6 Big Ten) will battle on Saturday, with one team finally getting a conference victory in this Penn State vs. Michigan State prediction. These teams did not meet last season. Penn State just lost a hard-fought battle against #2 Indiana, falling 27-24 as 13.5-point home dogs. Michigan State had a weekend off, but recently fell 23-20 against Minnesota as 5.5-point road dogs. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST and can be found on CBS. See below for our Penn State vs. Michigan State prediction, and check in on all of our best College Football Picks!
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Penn State Keeps Fighting
The Penn State Nittany Lions collapse this season has been well documented. They fired their long-time coach, James Franklin, and lost their starting quarterback for the season. Drew Allar is out for the season at quarterback, but the Nittany Lions may have found his replacement in Ethan Grunkmeyer. Penn State is on a six-game losing streak, but it also stole a victory against the #2 team in the nation last week against Indiana. In that game, Penn State held the lead with four minutes left before giving up a late touchdown in the loss.
Grunkmeyer was under center for that game, and the 6'2 freshman quarterback figures to hold the starting job for the rest of the season. Against Indiana, Grunkmeyer passed for 219 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the tight loss. He does not look to scramble out of the pocket much, as he has negative rushing yards on the season. Kaytron Allen is their top back. Defenses have been loading up the box against him lately, but he still leads the team with 736 yards and ten touchdowns. Allen had 145 yards and two touchdowns in their loss against Iowa.
The passing game has been quieter for Penn State this season, as their top pass catcher is Trebor Pena with 331 yards and one touchdown through nine games. The team has 17 sacks on the season, with edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton helping to lead the way with three. The defense has six interceptions on the year, from six different players.
Spartans Winless in League Play
The best part of this matchup for both teams is that someone will finally get a win in Big Ten play. The Michigan State Spartans are joined by Penn State and Purdue as the only three teams that have yet to win a conference game in the Big Ten. The Spartans missed their best chance last week, as they fell by just three points against Minnesota. In that game, Alessio Milivojevic passed for 311 yards and one touchdown, but it wasn't enough to get a win.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +1,154.00 |
| 2 |  David Hess | +808.00 |
| 3 |  Stephen Nover | +644.00 |
| 4 |  Dan Kaiser | +547.00 |
| 5 |  Rob Vincilleti | +500.00 |
Milivojevic finally got his chance to take over the offense as a 6'2 freshman, and did not disappoint in his first start against Minnesota. Of course, the Spartans wish they whad on the game, but they got a strong showing from their freshman quarterback who finished 20 for 28 passing with his 311 yards. Milivojevic should get the nod here, but the coaching staff has not yet made it clear if junior quarterback Aidan Chiles will get a shot after starting for most of the season. Makhi Frazier is their best option out of the backfield, he has 493 yards and two touchdowns as a 5'10 sophomore back.
Two receivers share the workload in the passing game, as Nick Marsh is a 6'3 sophomore with 554 yards and five touchdowns, while Omari Kelly is a 6'0 senior with 529 yards and another touchdown. The defense has 15 sacks as a unit, with no player having more than two on the season. The secondary has not been active, with three interceptions over nine games.
Penn State vs. Michigan State Picks and Predictions
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 | Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 | David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 | Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread pick for Penn State vs. Michigan State
- Michigan State +7.5 (5 units)
This is just too many points at home. Take the names off these jerseys, and the Nittany Lions do not look like they should be more than a touchdown favorite in this one. Penn State has fallen apart, an interim head coach, a new quarterback, and no direction. This will be a let-down spot for Penn State, as they played as well as they possibly could last week, but still lost to Indiana. It will be difficult to get the unit to play that well again, and Michigan State will be able to keep this game close at home. The Spartans may have found something with Milivojevic; he was excellent against Minnesota and is the more prolific passer in this game. Penn State has not moved the ball well through the air, and will not be able to cover this big number.
Take Michigan State to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Penn State vs. Michigan State
- Under 49.5 (4 units)
Winless teams, backup quarterbacks, a new coach, and a cold day in the Midwest is the perfect recipe for an under. I am surprised this number is not lower, as neither team has been competitive in Big Ten play, with the teams going a combined 0-12 in conference play. Each team is starting a quarterback who was not their day one starter, so growing pains will be inevitable for the two freshman quarterbacks. This will be a conservatively played game, as neither will look to consistently air it out in the passing game. This will be a low scoring game.
Take the under.
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