Penn State vs. UCLA Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Penn State Nittany Lions will play the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl in Big Ten football action. The Week 6 NCAAF game kicks off at 12:30 p.m. PT.
PSU is a 25-point spread favorite, and the game total is 49.5 points scored.
This Penn State vs. UCLA prediction highlights a Nittany Lions team that lost a heartbreaker in double overtime to Oregon last week and a Bruins squad that's still searching for its first victory of the college football season. Saturday's game marks the eighth all-time meeting between PSU and UCLA on the gridiron. The schools faced off in Happy Valley last season in their meeting as conference opponents, a 27-11 Nittany Lions win. The Bruins lead the series 4-3.
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Penn State has to rebuild its confidence
Penn State (3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS, and 3-1 O/U) lost 30-24 as 3.5-point favorites to Oregon last weekend. The Nittany Lions beat Nevada (46-11), Florida International (34-0), and Villanova (52-6), but couldn't cover the spread in those matchups.
PSU had the Ducks where it wanted them last Saturday, but couldn't finish the job. Oregon scored a touchdown in the second overtime period, but failed to convert its two-point conversion, leaving the door open for the home team to win. Unfortunately for the 100,000-plus fans decked out in white, their hope didn't last long, as QB Drew Allar was picked off on the first play of the Nittany Lions' drive. It was especially tough for Penn State fans to stomach, as the home team battled back from a 17-3 deficit in the fourth quarter only to fall once again on the big stage. Head coach James Franklin has struggled against top competition, with a 16-37 record against Top-25 teams, including 15-29 during his tenure at PSU.
Allar was expected to be among college football's best quarterbacks, but he hasn't lived up to the hype in 2025. The senior signal-caller has completed just 62 percent of his passes and ranks 88th in the nation in QBR. He's averaging 6.8 yards per pass and under 200 yards per game. While ineffective through the air, Penn State has moved the chains on the ground, as seniors Kaytron Allen (46 carries for 327 yards and four TDs) and Nic Singleton (52 carries for 200 yards and five scores) are a two-headed monster.
Penn State scores 39.0 points per game (18th) and averages 397.0 total yards (67th), including 217.0 passing yards (82nd) and 180.0 rushing yards (52nd). The Nittany Lions' defense surrenders 11.8 points (11th) and 274.0 total yards (19th) per game, including 154.5 passing yards (17th) and 119.5 rushing yards (45th).
Penn State Nittany Lions Football Injury Report: No significant injuries to report for Saturday's NCAAF game against UCLA.
UCLA is a program in transition again
UCLA (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, and 1-3 O/U) had an extra week to prepare, but still lost 17-14 at Northwestern last Saturday. The Bruins covered the spread as 6.5-point underdogs in that Big Ten matchup, but were unable to cover in losses to Utah (43-10), UNLV (30-23), and New Mexico (35-10).
UCLA fired head coach DeShaun Foster after the team's loss to New Mexico, ending his short tenure (5-10 record) in LA. The Bruins also let go of first-year offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri on Wednesday, appointing Jerry Neuheisel as the new play-caller. It's been a disappointing start to the season for UCLA, as they haven't been competitive on either side of the ball. While they covered the spread last week, a loss to a bad Northwestern team off a bye week isn't encouraging. The Wildcats scored on their first three possessions, taking a 17-0 lead, and the Bruins found the end zone only once, in the fourth quarter.
UCLA is led by Tennessee transfer QB Nico Iamaleava, who has completed 65 percent of his passes for 788 yards and four touchdowns. The sophomore signal-caller has turned the ball over four times (three INTs and one lost fumble) and has been sacked nine times. Sophomore WR Kwazi Gilmer (19 receptions for 225 yards and one TD) is UCLA's top pass-catcher, and Iamaleava is the team's top rushing threat (44 carries for 204 yards and one score).
The Bruins score 14.3 points per game (134th) and average 321.3 total yards (119th), including 197.0 passing yards (99th) and 124.3 rushing yards (106th). The UCLA defense allows 31.3 points (119th) and 401.8 total yards (106th) per game, including 169.0 passing yards (26th) and 232.8 rushing yards (133rd).
UCLA Bruins Football Injury Report: No significant injuries to report for Saturday's NCAAF game against Penn State.
Penn State vs. UCLA Pick
Spread Pick for Penn State vs. UCLA
- Nittany Lions -25 (4 Units)
Penn State doesn't have a good track record in big games, but it rarely costs itself wins against inferior competition, which UCLA clearly is. The Bruins will struggle to stop Allen and Singleton, who could combine for 300 yards in Saturday's game. Allar is also likely to bounce back with a solid performance, but he's unlikely to be counted on much, with PSU expected to dominate on the ground. Iamaleava has struggled in his first season with the Bruins, and the Nittany Lions will be in his face all game long (UCLA ranks 113th in pass blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus).
Penn State will dominate in the trenches, blowing out UCLA to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Penn State vs. UCLA
- Under 49.5 (5 Units)
PSU will account for most of the scoring in this game, winning up front. The Lions will run the football down the Bruins' throats, mixing in the occasional pass through the air, to dominate the time of possession. UCLA won't be able to get a push against the PSU offensive line (last nationally in stuff rate, and second-last in line yards). I expect Penn State to play its second-stringers a healthy amount in the second half, as well. UCLA attracted a top transfer portal player in Iamaleava (6.4 yards per attempt), but he's in for a world of trouble. The switch to a new OC won't pay immediate dividends, either.
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