Purdue vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Picks - September 20, 2025

A couple of familiar foes hook up on the college gridiron, and we have a Purdue vs. Notre Dame Prediction ready to rock and roll for you. The Boilermakers enter this game off a 33-13 home loss to USC to drop to 2-1 on the year. Notre Dame is off to a shocking 0-2 start as they have lost to Miami by 3 and then by just 1 point to Texas A&M last week. The Irish won last year's game by a score of 66-7. Can the Irish get back on track? Read on to see our Purdue vs. Notre Dame prediction.

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Boilermakers Lose Big To USC

Purdue enters South Bend at 2–1, but the record doesn’t quite reflect the volatility under first-year head coach Barry Odom. The Boilermakers were competitive early against USC last week before turnovers derailed their upset bid, ultimately falling 33–17. Quarterback Ryan Browne has flashed upside, throwing for 786 yards and five touchdowns through three games, but he’s also tossed four interceptions and taken a beating behind a shaky offensive line. The run game has been inconsistent—just 1.9 yards per carry against USC—but Devin Mockobee remains a capable back, and Purdue ranks top-25 nationally in third-down conversion rate thanks to a quick-strike passing scheme.

Offensively, Purdue is finding success through the air, ranking 32nd in passing success rate and 40th in net EPA per drive. Arhmad Branch and Michael Jackson III have emerged as reliable targets, and the Boilermakers are generating explosive plays both vertically and after the catch. But defensively, they’re still a work in progress. Purdue ranks 126th in EPA/pass allowed and gave up 460 yards to USC, including 282 through the air. They’ve been solid against the run—just 3.7 yards per carry allowed—but the secondary has struggled to generate stops and ranks outside the top 100 in pass defense success rate.

This isn’t the same Purdue team that went 1–11 last season. They’ve shown flashes of resilience and offensive creativity, and they’ve already covered twice this year. But they’ll need to clean up the turnovers and find a way to pressure CJ Carr if they want to hang around. The Boilermakers have enough firepower to score, but their defense will be tested early and often against a Notre Dame team desperate to get back on track.

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Notre Dame Suffers Bad Loss At Home

Notre Dame enters this matchup at 0–2, but the record doesn’t reflect how competitive they’ve been against elite competition. Both losses came by razor-thin margins—27–24 to Miami and 41–40 to Texas A&M—and in each case, the Irish had chances late to flip the result. Quarterback CJ Carr has been aggressive and efficient, throwing for 514 yards and three touchdowns while pushing the ball vertically with confidence. The offense ranks 26th in SP+ and 22nd nationally in completions of 20+ yards, thanks to Carr’s chemistry with Eli Raridon and Malachi Fields, who’ve emerged as reliable deep threats. The run game hasn’t fully clicked yet, but Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price offer versatility and burst, giving the Irish multiple ways to attack.

The bigger concern is on defense, where Notre Dame has struggled to generate stops and create disruption. They rank 105th in overall success rate and 134th in havoc rate, meaning they’re not producing tackles for loss, turnovers, or pressure at a sustainable level. Opponents are averaging nearly six yards per play, and the Irish have been particularly vulnerable in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 78% of opponent trips. Special teams miscues have compounded the problem, costing them field position and momentum in key moments. Despite the talent on the roster, the execution has been uneven, and the margin for error has been razor-thin.

Still, this is a must-win spot for Marcus Freeman’s squad. The Irish are heavily favored and have the talent edge across the board, but they’ll need to tighten up defensively and avoid the kind of lapses that have cost them late in games. If Carr continues to push the ball downfield and the run game finds rhythm, Notre Dame should control tempo and force Purdue into a one-dimensional attack. But the Boilermakers have enough firepower to keep things interesting, and the Irish can’t afford another shootout if they want to stabilize their season and reassert control at home.

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Purdue vs. Notre Dame Pick

Purdue vs. Notre Dame Spread Pick

• Notre Dame -25.5 (5 Units)

Notre Dame -25.5 is a sharp play with both historical dominance and situational urgency backing it. The Irish are 6–0 ATS in their last six matchups against Big Ten opponents—a trend that reflects how well they prepare for physical, power-style teams like Purdue. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are 0–6 ATS in their last six Game 4s, a spot that’s consistently exposed their lack of depth and early-season cohesion. Add in the fact that Notre Dame dismantled Purdue 66–7 last year, and you’ve got a psychological edge that’s hard to ignore. Marcus Freeman’s squad is 0–2 and desperate to make a statement, and this matchup offers the perfect opportunity to do just that.

The Irish have faced two top-tier teams in Miami and Texas A&M, losing by a combined four points, and now get a chance to unleash their frustrations on a defense that ranks 126th in EPA/pass allowed. CJ Carr has the arm talent and vertical weapons to stretch Purdue early, and the backfield duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price should feast against a front that gave up 460 yards to USC. Purdue’s offense has shown flashes, but their three turnovers last week and shaky pass protection make them vulnerable to a Notre Dame team that’s likely to play with urgency and aggression. If the Irish jump out early, they’ve got the firepower to bury Purdue again—and this time, they’ll be doing it with playoff hopes still flickering.

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Purdue vs. Notre Dame Over/Under Pick

• Over 54.5 (4 Units)

Over 54.5 is a strong lean given the offensive profiles and defensive inefficiencies on both sides. Notre Dame has averaged 32 points per game despite facing two top-tier defenses, and CJ Carr’s vertical passing attack has consistently generated chunk plays—ranking 22nd nationally in completions of 20+ yards. Purdue, meanwhile, has quietly built a top-40 passing offense and ranks 25th in third-down conversion rate, meaning they can sustain drives and contribute on the scoreboard. The Irish defense has been porous, allowing 5.88 yards per play and ranking 134th in havoc rate, while Purdue just gave up 460 yards to USC. With both teams capable of explosive plays and neither defense built to contain them, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout that pushes past the number.