Rice vs. Navy, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC We have a college football matchup in the AAC, involving Rice (3-1) and Navy (3-0) on Saturday afternoon from Annapolis at 3:30pmET. These teams last met in November of 2024, with the Owls winning 24-10 at home. In this Rice vs. Navy prediction, the Mids are coming off a bye week, while the Owls beat Charlotte 28-17 on the road in AAC play last Thursday. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Abell leads Rice to a strong start
Rice is off to a 3-1 start after going 4-8 last season with the arrival of new coach Scott Abell. His Owls have wins over Louisiana (14-12), FCS Prairie View (38-17) and Charlotte (28-17) last week. Their only loss came at the hands of Houston on the road as they fell 35-9. Last Thursday against the 49ers, the Owls were able to be successful because their ground attack produced 255 yards. QB Chase Jenkins threw just 11 times and completed eight for 87 yards and a TD. But he ran for a touchdown and 71 yards, while Daelen Alexander rushed for 73 yards and two scores. Quinton Jackson led the way with 80 yards rushing on 12 attempts.
Defensively, Rice held Charlotte to just 75 yards rushing and as the adage in football says, 'if you stop the run and you win the game'. That doesn't apply as much in today's game, but it does against run-heavy teams like Navy. Rice's defense has been solid this season, ranking 41st in yards allowed per game (304) and 62nd in rushing yards allowed (132.5ypg). On offense, they are similar to Navy, though in their spread option attack. They average just 77 passing yards per game (136th), but 246.3 rushing yards (15th). Jackson leads the team with 392 yards rushing, while Alexander adds 222, and Jenkins has 215 yards with a team-leading three rushing scores.
Rice is banged up at wide receiver, with five players listed as questionable, but the extra two days off should help.
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Mids looking to remain undefeated
Navy last played on Sept 13, dominating AAC foe Tulsa on the road, 42-23. That was coming off a shaky home performance against UAB in the previous week, but they were able to get by 38-4 as a 20.5-point favorite. Those two wins allowed the Mids to start the season at 2-0 in the AAC. In their win over Tulsa, QB Blake Horvath rushed for 159 yards and a TD, while tossing for 94 yards and a score.
Navy was down 14-7 in the first quarter against the Golden Hurricane, but managed to score 35 of the next 38 points for the easy win. They rushed for 367 yards and held Tulsa to 140 yards rushing and 189 yards passing. The only negative to come out of the game was that Horvath was picked off twice. The 6-2 senior is perfect for their Wing-T type of offense as he has 328 yards passing with three TDs and two picks, while rushing for 245 yards and three scores (6ypc).
Overall, Navy is averaging 493.3 yards per game (16th) and they lead the nation with 375.3 rushing yards per contest. Defensively, they are allowing 318 yards per game (47th) and 82.3 yards per game on the ground (16th). The bye week should help heal some of the injuries, especially on the defensive side.
Rice vs. Navy Pick
Spread Pick for Rice vs. Navy
- Rice +14 (4 units)
I know that Rice had a different coaching staff last season, but they figured out a way to slow down Horvath, picking him off twice and holding him to just 64 yards rushing on 16 carries last season. He also had two picks last week, so if Rice can slow him down, he's not as comfortable throwing the ball consistently. He threw 21 passes in last season's matchup and that's just not what Navy wants to do. Rice is improved from last season, especially with Jenkins at quarterback, who played sparingly for the Owls in two previous seasons, but fits this offense a lot better. His ability to run means teams have to focus on him, Alexander (5.3ypc) and the speedy 5-7 Jackson. Rice has enough weapons to keep this close against a team that might be a bit rusty coming off a game two weeks ago.
- Over 44.5
Now, while Navy has held to 10 points last season on the road vs. Rice, this is not happening this time from Annapolis. Yes, both teams will run early and often, but Navy can go vertical to take advantage of opponents playing the run. Both teams have tremendous rushing attacks and while the defenses have been pretty good against the run, neither team is your normal rushing attack.
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