Rice vs. Texas State, Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Friday, January 2, 2026

It's the New Year of 2026, but bowls are still around, which includes this Rice vs. Texas State prediction in the Armed Forces Bowl.  Rice (5-7) had a tough season (2-6) in the AAC, but found its way to this bowl game. Texas State (6-6) had a slightly better record in the Sun Belt (3-5). These teams last met in 2023 in the First Responder Bowl, with Texas State winning 45-21. Texas State is the hotter team, having won three straight games. They are also a 14.5-point favorite with a 58.5 total heading into this Armed Forces from Fort Worth on Friday at 1pmET. Check out more free college football picks and predictions at Winners and Whiners!

Rice struggles to end the season

The good news is that Rice has over a month to prepare for this game, as it last played on November 29. The bad news is that they were defeated by South Florida 52-3 in that game and have lost three of their last four contests. There's more bad news: starting quarterback Chase Jenkins has opted out of this bowl game to enter the transfer portal. Not only did they lose Jenkins, who has 1,025 passing yards with nine TDs and two picks, and 531 rushing yards, but they also lost backup Drew Devillier, who has played in six games this season.

With questions at quarterback, the Owls will need to lean on running back Quinton Jackson, who has 811 rushing yards and six scores (4.9ypc). LB Andrew Awe leads the Owls with 100 tackles and also has 2.5 sacks. Rice has produced just 23 sacks, with DL Tony Anywanwu leading the way with five.

Rice is averaging just 97.9 passing yards per game, so losing Jenkins isn't the end of the world. They average 213.3 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry.

Key Injury Report for Rice:

• CB Khary Crump (undisclosed) is questionable.

Bobcats looking to finish strong

Texas State is coming off winning three straight over Southern Miss (41-14), ULM (31-14), and South Alabama (49-26) at home on Nov. 29. The offense has been spectacular for most of the season, but this is also the same team that lost five straight before winning their last three. In that losing streak, they allowed 42.6 points per game in that span.

Offensively, they are elite when it comes to big plays, ranking in the top 10 with 90 plays of 30-plus yards, while they average 6.69 yards per play to rank 16th.

Brad Jackson leads the way at quarterback with 3,050 yards passing with 18 TDs and seven picks, while rushing for 692 yards and 16 TDs. The Bobcats are the only team in the Sun Belt with a 1,000-yard rusher in Lincoln Pare (1,022 yards, 11 TDs) and a 1,000-yard receiver in Beau Sparks (80 rec. for 1,113 yds, 9 TDs).

The defense, which has been horrific this season, is led by LB Treylin Payne, who has 102 tackles and two sacks. They allow 170. 1 rushing yards per game (95th), which is a big factor in this contest.

Key Injury Report for Texas State:

none

Spread Pick for Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State

Rice vs. Texas State Prediction and Pick

• Rice +14.5 (4 units)

Texas State is the big favorite because Rice will have a young quarterback with no to little experience. But they will have plenty of time to practice handing the ball off. Patrick Crayton Jr. and Lucas Scheerhorn both have some experience. Scheerhorn played more late in the season and has the mobility to keep their ground attack going. They will do enough on the ground against a poor rushing defense that they'll be able to keep the Texas State elite offense off the field. Rice is averaging over 200 yards rushing per game and Texas State is allowing nearly 200.

Over/Under Pick for Rice vs. Texas State

• Over 57.5 (5 units)

Both of these teams are horrific defensively. Rice has gone over in four of their last six games. Texas State has gone over in five of their last seven. Texas State has scored 30 or more points in eight of their last nine games. Rice has allowed 108 points combined in their last two games. In their last two road games, they gave up 52 to USF and 61 to UTSA.