Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. Texas Longhorns Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 20th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-3, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U) meet the Texas Longhorns (2-1, 0-3 ATS, 0-3 O/U) in an inter-conference showdown on Saturday evening, and we have the prediction. The Bearkats dropped a meeting against Hawaii in their recent action. The Longhorns posted a home win against UTEP.
Can Texas cover this mammoth spread on Saturday? Check out the Sam Houston vs. Texas prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Sam Houston State Eyes First Win of Season
The Sam Houston Bearkats are searching for their first win of the season. It has been a rough start due to a horrid defense. They lost their first game of the season to Western Kentucky and were hit with a home loss against UNLV in their home opener. Next, they were in Hawaii and were dealt a 37-20 defeat in a clash that had the Bearkats marked as seven-point dogs. The Bearkats have not covered the spread in their three games.
Hunter Watson did not play last week due to injury and is playing in this one. The senior QB has recorded 310 passing yards with no touchdowns against one pick in two games. Mabrey Mettauer is receiving playing time. The freshman QB has connected on 65% of his passes for 177 yards and a 1:2 TD to INT ratio in two games.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
The rushing offense has been a bit better than the passing game. Landon Brown has seen most of the carries. The sophomore RB has posted 94 rushing yards. Elijah Green has gained 76 yards. The running back also leads the squad with 124 receiving yards. Grady O’Neill is next up with 65 receiving yards. The Sam Houston offense is only averaging 320 yards per game.
The Bearkats' defense has been the biggest issue. The group ranks near the bottom in many categories. CJ Brown leads the squad with 21 tackles. They squandered 417 total yards against Hawaii and an average of 442 yards per game on the season. The pass defense is 132nd, while the rush defense is rated 66th.
Sam Houston is averaging 21.7 points on the year, marking them 101st. The Bearkats are conceding an average of 38.7 points, pegging them 130th.
Texas Offense Shaky in Win vs. UTEP
The #8 Texas Longhorns are seeking their third win of the season. Texas opened the season with a daunting matchup against #3 Ohio State and was competitive in a 14-7 defeat. Next, they rebounded with a blowout home win against San Jose State, but didn’t cover the spread. The Longhorns had another easy opponent last week and came away with a 27-10 home win against UTEP in a clash that had the Longhorns marked as huge 40-point favourites. The Longhorns have yet to cover the spread.
Arch Manning has a ton of hype, but has been inconsistent so far. The sophomore QB was outstanding against San Jose State, posting 295 yards, and struggled against the UTEP Miners last week, posting 114 yards and one pick. Manning has recorded 579 passing yards and a 6:3 TD to INT ratio. He leads the team with 112 yards on the ground.
Texas has opted for the run more than the pass. CJ Baxter posted 40 yards against the Buckeyes. The sophomore running back has amassed 110 rushing yards. He is injured and won't play in this one. The receiving core is a strength. Parker Livingstone brought in 128 yards in week two but only 23 yards last week. The freshman has reported 198 yards on the season. Jack Endries is a tight end with 106 yards. The Texas offense only managed 340 yards last week and is averaging 382 yards per game.
The Longhorns' defense is their top strength and one of the best in the country. They contained Ohio State on the road in the opener, conceding only 203 yards. They actually gave up more yards against UTEP last week, squandering 259 total yards. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. has made 15 tackles. The pass defense is rated 36th, while the rush defense is among the best, coming in at 11th.
Texas is scoring an average of 24 points, marking them 95th. The Longhorns are keeping opponents to just 10.3 points, good for 10th.
Sam Houston State vs. Texas Pick
Spread Pick for Sam Houston State vs. Texas
- Texas Longhorns -39 (5 units)
The Sam Houston Bearkats have yet to win a game and are expected to be near the bottom of the C-USA. They are a team that is probably only going to win two or three games at the most. Sam Houston has not been close in their defeats and has yet to play a power conference team. The Texas Longhorns have yet to find a groove, but have an elite defense and beat San Jose State by 31 points two weeks ago.
Furthermore, Sam Houston has a horrendous defense that is among the worst in the country. Arch Manning has been mediocre, but this is a defense he should expose. The Bearkats' pass defense is squandering an average of 315 passing yards per game, ranking them 132nd. Also, the Longhorns have one of the best defensive units in the country. Sam Houston is only averaging 185 passing yards and won’t post big numbers against a Longhorns pass defense that is keeping opponents to an average of 174 passing yards.
Over/Under Pick for Sam Houston State vs. Texas
- Over 52 (5 units)
I expect this one to go over. The Sam Houston offense has been decent and will contribute to this number. They have scored 21 or more points in all three games. They did not have their #1 QB last week, Hunter Watson, but he is back for this one.
In addition, Texas has yet to break out offensively, but it is better than the numbers indicate. Manning should rebound against a weak pass defense. He threw for 295 passing yards in the win against San Jose State, and the Bearkats have weaker defensive numbers than the Spartans. Also, Texas has a quick offense that stands 39th in the country in plays per game.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
