Sam Houston State vs Middle Tennessee Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025
The Sam Houston State Bearkats (2-9, 1-5 CUSA) are on the road Saturday in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium for a Conference USA game with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-9, 0-6 CUSA). Sam Houston State defeated Delaware 26-23 last time out and has won two straight, but before that, it lost each of its first eight games of the season. Middle Tennessee lost to Western Kentucky 42-26 last Saturday and has lost each of its last seven. Sam Houston State is next to last in the conference standings, while Middle Tennessee is last. Neither team will qualify for a bowl game this season. Exciting vibes? Get ready with our free NCAAF picks for Sam Houston State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction and stay ahead of the game.
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Sam Houston State is very weak on both sides of the wall
The Sam Houston State Bearkats score an average of 18.0 points (127th) per game and allow an average of 36.7 points (132nd) per game. Sam Houston State's offense is 96th in rushing yards and 115th in passing yards per game. The Bearkats average 307.3 yards of total offense, which is 125th. The defense is 127th in rushing yards allowed and 133rd in passing yards. Sam Houston State gives up 474.7 yards per game, which is 134th or second from the bottom.
Sam Houston State starting quarterback Hunter Watson is listed as questionable and has not played since October 31st. Landyn Locke has taken over in place of the injured Watson. Locke has thrown for 363 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Landan Brown is the leading rusher with 415 yards and four touchdowns. Chris Reed is the leading receiver with 344 yards and three touchdown receptions. Linebacker Antavious Fish is the leading tackler with 70. The Sam Houston State defense has made 19 quarterback sacks and intercepted seven passes.
Injuries: Sam Houston State will play without WR London Deyon, RB Ah’Marion Gaines-Smith, WR Terrence Guillory II, and QB Hunter Watson. Three others are listed as questionable.
Middle Tennessee is also struggling on both sides of the ball
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders score an average of 20.7 (115th) per game and allow an average of 33.0 (126th) per game. Middle Tennessee’s offense is 31st in passing yards and 132nd in rushing yards per game. The Blue Raiders average 354.0 yards per game of total offense, which is 96th. On defense, Middle Tennessee is 81st in rushing yards allowed and 111th in passing yards allowed. The Blue Raiders allow an average of 43.9 yards, which is 98th.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  David Hess | +786.00 |
| 2 |  Earle Sports Bets | +581.00 |
| 3 |  Stephen Nover | +556.00 |
| 4 |  Sniper Wes | +384.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +351.00 |
Middle Tennessee starting quarterback Nicholas Vattiato is listed as questionable and missed the last game. On the season, Vattiato has 2,150 yards passing with 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Backup Roman Gagliano, who started last week versus Western Kentucky, has thrown for 483 yards with three touchdown passes. Jekail Middlebrook is the leading rusher for Middle Tennessee with 551 yards and four touchdowns. Cam’ron Lacy is the leading receiver with 519 yards and three touchdown receptions. Linebacker Parker Hughes is the leading tackler with 80. Middle Tennessee's defense has made 20 quarterback sacks and intercepted seven passes.
Injuries: Middle Tennessee will play without RB Austion Clemons, WR Neo Clifton, S Jared Douglas, CB Trevon Ferrell, and WR Tyree Patterson. Four others are questionable, including QB Nicholas Vattiato.
Middle Tennessee vs. Sam Houston State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 | Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 | Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 | David Hess | +706.00 |
Spread Pick for Middle Tennessee vs. Sam Houston State
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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -6.5 (4 units)
Sam Houston may be without its starting quarterback, Hunter Watson, and the offense has struggled all season, sitting 127th in scoring and 125th in total offense. The running game is 96th, and the passing game is just 115th. Sam Houston’s defense is just as bad, sitting 132nd in points allowed at 36.7 per game, while 134th or two from the bottom in yards allowed at 474.7 per game. Middle Tennessee is not much better, but it is 115th in scoring and has a very strong passing attack, which is 31st and averages 267.1 yards per game. Middle Tennessee may be without its starting quarterback, Nicholas Vattiato, but backup Roman Gagliano threw for 389 yards and two touchdowns last Saturday versus Western Kentucky.
Over/Under Pick for Middle Tennessee vs. Sam Houston State
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Over 54.5 (4 units)
The total has finished over in six of Sam Houston State’s 10 games this season. The total has finished over in each of Middle Tennessee's last two games and three of the Blue Raiders' last four. Both defenses are very porous, as Sam Houston State is 132nd, allowing 36.7 points per game, and Middle Tennessee is not much better, allowing an average of 33.0 points per game, which is 126th.
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