Sam Houston State vs. Texas Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-3) vs. Texas Longhorns (2-1)
Week 4 of the 2025 college football season brings plenty of interesting matchups on Saturday, September 20, including the non-conference showdown at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX, so we’ve prepared the Sam Houston State vs. Texas prediction to get you covered.
The Bearkats meet the Longhorns for the first time since 2006, when Texas dismantled Sam Houston State 56-3 in front of the home fans. The Longhorns are legitimate championship contenders, and the bookies expect a strong display from Texas on Saturday night.
The kick-off is set at 8:00 PM ET, and Texas is a massive 39.5-point fave with a total of 51.5 points. Let’s look closer at this Sam Houston vs. Texas prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 4 of the 2025 NCAAF season.
Sam Houston is off to a rough start
The Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-3; 0-3 ATS; 2-1 O/U) are coming off a bye. They had an extra week to prepare for Week 4 and try to bounce back from a rough start to the season.
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The Bearkats opened their 2025 campaign with a 41-24 defeat at Western Kentucky in week zero. After a 38-21 home loss to UNLV in Week 1, the Bearkats suffered a 37-20 road loss against Hawaii in Week 2.
Senior QB Hunter Watson suffered an injury in the UNLV game. He sat out Week 2, so freshman Mabrey Mettauer started under center against Hawaii. Mettauer struggled a lot, throwing for 91 yards and an interception, while fellow freshman Landyn Locke tossed for 68 yards and a touchdown in relief.
The Bearkats racked up just 238 total yards in Week 2. They rushed 32 times for 79 yards and committed nine penalties for 95 yards. The Bearkats went 2-for-11 on third down, and the Rainbow Warriors, who mustered 417 total yards, covered a 7.5-point spread with ease.
Watson is cleared to play this weekend. According to the Bearkats' first-year head coach Phil Longo, Watson and Mettauer will both continue preparing as starters each week. Last season, Watson threw for 1,811 yards, 12 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while rushing 168 times for 647 yards and nine scores.
Texas aims for its third straight W
The No. 8 Texas Longhorns (2-1; 0-3 ATS, 0-3 O/U) started their 2025 campaign with a 14-7 road loss against the No. 3 Ohio State in Week 1. The Longhorns bounced back with a 38-7 home win over San Jose State in Week 2, but they failed to cover a 36.5-point spread.
Last week, the Longhorns outlasted UTEP 27-10, failing to cover a 39.5-point spread in front of the home audience. Sophomore QB Arch Manning completed just 11 of his 25 passing attempts, throwing for 114 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, and Texas rushed 56 times for 226 yards.
Manning scored twice on his own in Week 3. He carried the pigskin nine times for 51 yards, while running backs James Simon and Jerrick Gibson combined for 131 rushing yards. Sophomore wideout Ryan Wingo had three catches for 32 yards and a TD.
“He knew he missed some throws,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said of Manning. “I feel like we’ve done enough with him to have a pretty good understanding of who he is as a player and what he’s capable of. I know there’s a lot of football in him that’s high-level football.”
Manning has struggled over the previous three weeks. He’s completed just 55.3% of his passing attempts while tossing for 579 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Sam Houston State vs. Texas Pick
Spread Pick for Sam Houston State vs. Texas
- Sam Houston State +39.5 (5 units)
The Bearkats allow a whopping 314.7 passing yards per game (133rd in the country). Hereof, I expect Arch Manning to get things going, and the Longhorns should lean on their passing game in this matchup. The Bearkats’ run defense has been solid thus far, yielding 127.7 yards per game (66th) and 3.8 yards per carry (tied for 69th).
Texas will win this game, but covering a 39.5-point spread might be a tall task. Hunter Watson’s return is a huge boost for the Bearkats’ offense. Watson is a proper dual threat, and the Longhorns will see more QB run games than they’ve seen so far this season. I think that Sam Houston State will score enough to beat the number.
Over/Under Pick for Sam Houston State vs. Texas
- Over 51.5 (5 units)
As I noted above, the Bearkats’ pass defense has been awful thus far. Arch Manning will bounce back, and the Longhorns will play faster than they did against UTEP in Week 3. Texas could easily hit a 40-point mark in this game. The Bearkats’ defensive line will struggle to get to Manning, who has a lot of dangerous weapons in the receiving corps to lean on.
Hereof, I will go with the over on the total. I expect the Bearkats to score in double figures and push the total over the 51.5-point line.
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