San Diego State vs. Hawaii Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 8, 2025
Use Code WWWC San Diego State Aztecs (7-1) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (6-3)
Week 11 of the 2025 college football season will close down with the Mountain West Conference clash at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, HI, on Saturday night, so we’ve prepared the San Diego State vs. Hawaii prediction to get you covered.
The Aztecs aim for their sixth straight victory over Hawaii. Last season, San Diego State outlasted Hawaii 27-24 as a slight 1.5-point fave. Back in 2023, the Aztecs beat the Rainbow Warriors 41-34 as 6-point road favorites.
SDSU is a 6.5-point fave this time around, while the total sits at 50.5 points. Read more about this San Diego State vs. Hawaii prediction, and check out all our NCAAF picks for Week 11. The kick-off in Honolulu is set at 11:00 PM ET.
San Diego State looks unstoppable
The San Diego State Aztecs (7-1; 7-1 ATS; 3-5 O/U) are rolling on a six-game SU and ATS winning streak. During that stretch, the Aztecs have allowed just 44 points while recording a couple of shutouts against California 34-0 at home, and Fresno State, 23-0 on the road.
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Last week, the Aztecs advanced to 4-0 in conference play, beating Wyoming 24-7 in front of the home audience. San Diego State outgained the Cowboys 390-185 in total yards and won the turnover battle 4-2. The Aztecs went just 2-for-12 on 3rd down, but their defense was all over Wyoming.
SDSU picked off Wyoming’s signal-caller Kaden Anderson three times. Junior RB Lucky Sutton led the way for the Aztecs with 28 carries for 158 yards and a touchdown, while junior QB Jayden Denegal went 11-of-22 for 194 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions.
“It's great to have another one, to win six in a row as we have momentum going into the fourth quarter of the season,” SDSU coach Sean Lewis said. “It’s great to be in the position that we are right now, but we've got to get a heck of a lot better as we go forward. There's going to be lots of cleanup this week, because we have to go play a really good Hawaii team.”
The Aztecs lean on their sturdy defense. They surrender just 10.0 points per game (2nd in the country) on 88.5 rushing yards (11th) and 157.8 passing yards (9th). The Aztecs have only allowed 17 red-zone attempts to their rivals (5th) while posting 19 sacks (tied for 35th).
On the other side of the ball, SDSU tallies 28.9 points per game (67th) on 185.6 rushing yards (37th) and 181.5 passing yards (112th). Denegal has thrown for 1,415 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Lucky Sutton has amassed 820 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Sophomore wideout Jordan Napier leads the receiving corps with 45 catches for 610 yards and three scores.
Hawaii is coming off a tough loss
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (6-3; 6-3 ATS; 4-5 O/U) put an end to their three-game winning streak last Saturday. After beating Air Force 44-35, Utah State 44-26, and Colorado State 31-19, the Warriors suffered a 45-38 defeat at San Jose State in Week 10, falling to 3-2 in conference play.
The Warriors allowed a whopping 630 total yards at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose. They racked up 496 total yards in return, but the Warriors lost the turnover battle 1-0 while committing 11 penalties for 80 yards. Hawaii didn’t record a single sack or a tackle for loss.
Freshman QB Micah Alejado threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns last week. Sophomore WR Jackson Harris caught six passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns, while senior RB Landon Sims posted four receptions for 18 yards and a touchdown while rushing 13 times for 57 yards and a TD.
"We’ll go and look at some of the things we couldn’t do better," Hawaii coach Timmy Chang said. "Credit to them for making the plays when they needed to make them. We didn’t make enough plays tonight."
The Warriors score 29.7 points per game (60th in the nation) on 102.4 rushing yards (126th) and 307.6 passing yards (7th). Alejado has tossed for 2,124 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions across seven appearances, while wideouts Jackson Harris and Pofele Ashlock have combined for 1,199 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, the Warriors allow 25.7 points per game (tied for 80th) on 132.2 rushing yards (47th) and 225.4 passing yards (74th). They’ve allowed 32 red-zone attempts to their rivals, who have scored a touchdown on 17 occasions.
San Diego State vs. Hawaii Pick
Spread Pick for San Diego State vs. Hawaii
- San Diego State -6.5 (5 units)
This is a tricky spot for the Aztecs. A trip to Honolulu is never easy, but given the way the Aztecs have been playing all season, the Rainbow Warriors will have a mountain to climb.
SDSU’s defense has been nothing short of spectacular thus far. Hawaii leans on its passing offense, but the Warriors will now depend on Micah Alejado’s arm more than ever. It’s impossible to run efficiently against this San Diego State team.
The Aztecs are bullies at the line of scrimmage. Hawaii’s run defense is solid, but the Aztecs will find a way to move the ball enough to win this game and beat the number.
Over/Under Pick for San Diego State vs. Hawaii
- Under 50.5 (5 units)
The Aztecs will put a lot of pressure on Hawaii’s offensive line. The Warriors will struggle to rush, while their pass blocking will be properly tested in this matchup.
I will lean on SDSU’s sturdy defense and take the under. The Aztecs’ offense won’t have an easy task in this game. As I said, the Warriors’ run defense has been solid all season, and the Aztecs’ passing offense is not great by any stretch of the imagination.
The under is 8-4 in the last 12 encounters between San Diego State and Hawaii, and it is 5-1 in their previous six meetings in Honolulu.
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