San Diego State vs. New Mexico, Odds, Preview, Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Friday, the San Diego State Aztecs will visit the New Mexico Lobos for a pivotal Week 14 NCAAF game at University Stadium. The Mountain West Conference matchup is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
The Aztecs are one-point spread favorites, and the total is 41 points scored.
This San Diego State vs. New Mexico prediction highlights an SDSU team that leads the MWC and a UNM squad that's tied for second place. The Lobos upset the Aztecs 21-16 in San Diego last season, but SDSU is 9-1 straight-up (4-6 ATS) in the last ten matchups. The under was 7-3 in those games.
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Can Aztecs' defense make one last stand on the road?
Aside from road losses at Washington State and Hawaii, San Diego State has run the table this season.
The Aztecs (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS, and 3-7 O/U) easily handled San José State in their last game, limiting the Spartans to three points. SDSU jumped out to an 11-point lead and was up 18-3 at the half, then cruised to the win. While inefficient in the passing game, San Diego State rushed for 167 yards and won the turnover battle 2-0.
Junior QB Jayden Denegal leads the Aztecs' passing game with 1,645 yards and an 8:7 TD:INT ratio. He has completed 58.9 percent of his passing attempts, averaging 7.5 yards per pass. Denegal's top receiving target, sophomore WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions for 629 yards and two TDs), is out for the season. Junior RB Lucky Sutton (217 carries for 1,127 yards and nine TDs) paces SDSU's run game.
San Diego State scores 27.9 points per game (77th) and averages 374.6 total yards (97th), including 168.2 passing yards (121st) and 206.4 rushing yards (27th). The Aztecs' defense surrenders 12.8 points (4th) and 289.7 total yards (8th) per game, including 175.7 passing yards (12th) and 114.0 rushing yards (24th).
San Diego State Aztecs Football Injury Report:
- The Aztecs' leading tackler and leading receiver are both out for the rest of the season.
- Starting WR Jacob Bostick is also out for the season.
- Check the MWC availability report before kickoff for an updated injury list.
New Mexico hopes to pull off another upset of SDSU
New Mexico (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, and 5-6 O/U) dropped its first two Mountain West games, but responded with five straight victories.
In the Lobos' latest win, they held Air Force to three points and 161 total yards. UNM exerted its will on the ground, rushing for 172 yards, and was 7-for-12 on third down. The Falcons committed two turnovers and averaged just 2.3 yards per carry on 48 attempts.
Junior QB Jack Layne leads the New Mexico passing game with 2,271 yards and a 12:9 TD:INT ratio. He has completed 66.8 percent of his passing attempts, averaging 8.2 yards per pass. Layne's top receiving targets are senior WR Keagan Johnson (54 receptions for 693 yards and three TDs) and sophomore TE Dorian Thomas (48 receptions for 514 yards and four TDs). The Lobos feature two running backs who split the team's carries: senior Damon Bankston (94 carries for 522 yards and five TDs) and sophomore D.J. McKinney (105 carries for 408 yards and six TDs).
New Mexico scores 31.2 points per game (56th) and averages 412.7 total yards (72nd), including 244.7 passing yards (66th) and 168.0 rushing yards (70th). The Lobos' defense surrenders 25.3 points (63rd) and 383.8 total yards (58th) per game, including 267.0 passing yards (113th) and 116.8 rushing yards (26th).
New Mexico Lobos Football Injury Report:
- OL Richard Pearce, CB Abraham Williams, and DT Gabriel Lopez are questionable to play vs. San Diego State.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for San Diego State vs. New Mexico
- Aztecs -1 (5 Units)
This is an exciting, must-see game, as the winner will host the MWC Championship.
The Lobos have emerged as a threat after a 0-2 start with dominant play in the trenches, as their o-line ranks top-20 nationally in Line Yards and their d-line ranks top-20 in Stuff Rate. They will lean on their run game (48th nationally in run percentage) behind their line with their explosive, shifty backs, Bankston and McKinney. That won't be so easy, however, against the Aztecs' stop unit, which ranks ninth nationally in opponent runs of ten-plus yards. SDSU is also tough to score against, as its run defense stands tall in the red zone (third in opponent red zone scoring percentage).
While the San Diego State offense won't overwhelm most teams, it could have opportunities through the air against a porous Lobos pass defense that ranks 98th in passing plays of 20-plus yards allowed. Denegal likes to take big shots down the field, but it hasn't cost San Diego State, which ranks 13th in turnovers this season.
Over/Under Pick for San Diego State vs. New Mexico
- Under 41 (5 Units)
Will we see a few explosive passing plays by the Aztecs? Sure, but it shouldn't be enough to induce high-scoring, back-and-forth action. I expect both teams to run the football a lot — they rank 7th and 48th in run percentage — and find a lot of resistance moving the chains. Both defenses are tough to run against, and the Aztecs are especially stout on third down (18th in third down defense). The SDSU offense will take more big shots down the field, but it's inconsistent at picking up third downs (129th nationally).
The under has cashed in four straight San Diego State games and is 3-1 in New Mexico's last four. I anticipate those trends will hold up on Friday afternoon in Albuquerque!
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