San Diego State vs Toledo Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 26, 2026

The San Diego State Aztecs visit the Toledo Rockets on Saturday at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, with the opening kickoff at 12:00 PM ET and televised on CBSSN. San Diego State is 1-2 overall and 0-0 in the Pac-12 after a 26-13 loss to James Madison. Toledo is 2-1 overall and 0-0 in the MAC following a 49-48 overtime win against Temple. The Aztecs have dropped two straight since their opening victory, while the Rockets have won two in a row after losing at Michigan State. Here’s a closer look at this matchup, part of our free NCAAF picks.

San Diego State Aztecs Trying to End a Two-Game Slide

San Diego State opened with a 53-20 win over Portland State before losses to UCLA and James Madison. Jayden Denegal has completed 36 of 67 passes for 391 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. Nathan Acevedo leads the receiving corps with 119 yards and two touchdowns on 11 catches, while Javion Kinnard has added 81 receiving yards. Kinnard has been the Aztecs’ main threat on the ground with 308 yards and one touchdown while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

San Diego State has rushed for 573 yards and five touchdowns on 124 attempts, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Lucky Sutton has added 139 yards and three scores. The Aztecs have six sacks and three interceptions on defense. Djibril Rahman has two sacks, while Mike Lindsay has recorded two interceptions. Sione Hala leads San Diego State with 31 tackles and one sack, with Tano Letuli adding 25 tackles.

Injuries: No injuries to report.

Toledo Rockets Coming Off an Overtime Win

Toledo followed a 30-20 loss at Michigan State with wins over Central Connecticut State and Temple, scoring 112 points across those two victories. John Alan Richter has completed 63 of 96 passes for 877 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. Adjatay Dabbs has 223 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while Rico Bond has 169 yards at 21.1 yards per catch. Connor Walendzak leads the rushing attack with 172 yards and four touchdowns.

The Rockets have recorded 938 passing yards and 440 rushing yards, scoring 18 offensive touchdowns. Toledo is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, with Walendzak averaging 6.9. The defense has six sacks and one interception. Isaac Zay has one sack and the interception, while Caden Camese, Nicholas Thompson and Lucas Lambert-Pipkin have one sack apiece. Julian Fox leads the Rockets with 27 tackles, followed by Zay with 24 and Mo Conteh with 21.

Injuries: T. Kelleher (questionable), K. Gilbert Jr. (questionable), T. Jones (questionable).

Key to the Game

San Diego State needs to keep Toledo’s passing attack from producing explosive gains. Richter is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns against one interception, while five Rockets have at least 95 receiving yards. The Aztecs can counter by controlling possessions with Kinnard and Sutton, especially after Toledo allowed 48 points against Temple. Denegal also needs to protect the football after throwing four interceptions. Limiting turnovers and keeping Richter off the field can help San Diego State stay close deep into the game.

San Diego State vs Toledo Game Pick

• Toledo -3

Toledo is the pick at home. Richter has thrown for 877 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception, and the Rockets have several receiving options who can stretch the field. San Diego State has relied more heavily on its running game, while Denegal has completed 53.7% of his passes with four touchdowns and four interceptions. Toledo has scored 49 and 63 points in its last two games, and the Rockets’ passing production creates a difficult matchup for an Aztecs team that has lost two straight.

San Diego State vs Toledo Over/Under Pick

• over 51.5

The play is over. Toledo has scored 112 points across its last two games and has produced 10 passing touchdowns and eight rushing scores this season. San Diego State also has a productive ground game, averaging 4.6 yards per carry behind Kinnard and Sutton. The Aztecs scored 53 in their opener and have enough rushing production to contribute against a Toledo defense coming off a 48-point outing against Temple. Richter’s early passing numbers add plenty of scoring potential on the other side.