San Jose State Spartans vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction and Picks - September 6, 2025

Coming off a 14-7 road loss to Ohio State, the Texas Longhorns will open their home schedule against the San Jose State Spartans. The Spartans dropped their opener last week to Central Michigan, 16-14.

Check out our Texas vs. San Jose State prediction for Saturday, September 6, 2025.

The Longhorns opened as 36.5-point favorites for this matchup. Texas won the only previous head-to-head meeting, 56-0 in 2017.

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Arch Manning falls short

Texas entered the season with lofty national championship expectations, but a hard-fought 14-7 road loss to Ohio State sent shockwaves through the program and betting markets. The Longhorns, previously favored in multiple futures markets, saw their title odds slip from +550 to +750 after the defeat.

Still, the talent and depth remain. The over 9.5 wins (-105 at BetMGM) is still a viable bet given Texas’ schedule and ability to rebound. In their opener, the Longhorns posted 336 total yards (170 passing, 166 rushing) with 16 first downs but struggled in key spots. They went just 5-for-14 on third down and failed on four of five fourth-down tries. The only turnover came on an Arch Manning interception, but Texas repeatedly stalled drives, settling for one touchdown and committing six penalties for 50 yards.

Manning finished with 170 passing yards and a score. Quintrevion Wisner led the ground game with 80 yards, and Jack Endries topped the receivers with 50 yards. Defensively, Liona Lefau paced the unit with nine tackles, but Texas failed to force turnovers. While Week 1 raised questions about Manning’s rhythm, the run game showed promise at 4.5 yards per carry, and the defense largely held Ohio State in check.

San Jose State upset in opener

San Jose State suffered a heartbreaking 16-14 loss to Central Michigan, undone by two missed field goals in the closing minutes. The Spartans rallied from a 13-0 hole to take the lead in the third quarter behind quarterback Walker Eget (308 passing yards, 2 TDs) and wideout Danny Scudero (189 yards, 9 receptions, 1 TD).

Turnovers were the difference. The Spartans lost the battle 3-0 and managed just 75 rushing yards. They finished with 19 first downs and were 8-for-16 on third down, but the ground attack averaged only 3.1 yards per carry. Defensively, linebacker Jordan Pollard recorded 15 tackles, holding Central Michigan to field goals after halftime, but special-teams miscues proved costly.

Eget and Scudero flashed big-play ability, but without a reliable run game or sharper execution late, San Jose State faces a steep uphill climb against Texas. The Spartans will need another explosive passing performance and opportunistic defense to have any chance of keeping this one close.

San Jose State vs. Texas pick

Spread Pick for San Jose State vs. Texas

• Pick: San Jose State +36.5 (3 untits)

I don’t love backing a team I don’t think can win outright, but 34 points is usually the cutoff for me if you like Texas. The Spartans were respectable last season, finishing 7-6 and losing to Boise State by just 21. They return a stable quarterback in Eget, who threw for 2,504 yards last year and has been in the program since 2021.

With Texas likely to lean on its ground game, especially after finding success against Ohio State, expect a more conservative approach late. That could leave the back door open for San Jose State to cover.

Over/Under Pick for San Jose State vs. Texas

• Total Pick: Over 52.5 (3 units)

The under has taken early money, which makes sense given Texas scored only seven points in Week 1 and San Jose State managed just 14 against Central Michigan. Still, this number feels too low.

Texas hung 52 on Colorado State, 56 on UTSA, and 51 on UL Monroe last season, showing they can clear this total themselves against inferior opponents. I don’t see the Longhorns scoring fewer than 40, and I think San Jose State can scratch into double digits, pushing the game over the number.