SMU vs. Cal, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 29, 2025
It’s a matchup on the gridiron between ACC foes as they tangle in the Golden State looking to earn a win. The #21 SMU Mustangs are on the road as they travel to take on the Cal Golden Bears Saturday night. SMU comes in off a 38-6 win over Louisville last Saturday in their previous contest, covering the line as a 3.5-point favorite. Cal fell 31-10 on the road to Stanford last Saturday, losing outright as a 4.5-point favorite in their previous contest. In the all-time series between the programs, SMU has won both meetings, including a 38-6 home win in the most recent meeting, which came Non ovember 30, 2024. Read more about this UCLA vs. USC prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
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SMU Seeking to Close Regular Season With Win
SMU won their third straight and their sixth in the last seven games as they trounced Louisville in their previous contest. The Mustangs improved to 8-3 overall and stand 6-1 in the SEC as they take the field here. Against Louisville, SMU drove the length of the field for a touchdown after the opening kickoff and led the rest of the way. The Mustangs were up 7-3 after the opening quarter and took a 21-6 advantage at the half as they rolled to the victory. SMU owned a commanding 485-228 edge in total offense, picked up 28 first downs while allowing 12, owned a 35:56 to 24:04 and forced the game’s lone turnover.
The Mustangs enter this game 15th in the FBS in passing offense as they average 286.5 yards per game through the air while they are 100th in rushing offense with 127.2 yards per game. SMU is 35th in the nation in scoring offense as they put up 32.7 points per game while they are 21st in scoring defense by allowing an average of 19.1 points per game. Kevin Jennings is 255 of 386 passing for 3,113 yards with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions while ranking fifth on the team with 32 rushing yards and a score this season. Charlie Fiser (four of four, 30 yards, two rush yards) and Ty Hawkins is one of one for eight yards plus 12 rushing yards as the backups. T.J. Harden leads the team on the ground with 151 carries for 703 yards and six scores. Chris Johnson Jr. (52 carries, 335 yards, three TD), Derrick McFall (27 carries, 151 yards, four TD) and Dramecko Green (18 carries, 55 yards, TD) are also in the mix on the ground. Romello Brinson is tied for second on the team with 43 catches for 638 yards and three scores on the year. Jordan Hudson (50 receptions, 691 yards, five TD), Jalen Cooper (15 grabs, 271 yards, two TD), Yamir Knight (43 catches, 504 yards, five TD) and tight ends RJ Maryland Jr. (25 catches, 289 yards, two TD), along with other targets over 200 receiving yards this season. Collin Rogers is 12 of 12 on extra point attempts and one of four on field goals with a long of 43 this season. Sam Keltner has hit 28 of 30 extra point attempts and 13 of 18 field goal attempts with a long of 51 on the year. Stone Eby is two of two on extra point attempts and has not attempted a field goal last season.
Key Injury Report for SMU:
- No Key Trends
Golden Bears Hoping for Upset Win
Cal fell for the third time in four games as they were drubbed on the road by Stanford in their previous contest. The Golden Bears fell to 6-5 overall and stand tied for 10th in the ACC with a 3-5 mark in conference play. Against Stanford, Cal led 3-0 after the opening quarter and led 10-7 midway through the second quarter before giving up 24 unanswered points to wind up with the loss. The Golden Bears held a 297-282 advantage in total offense and owned a 33:40 to 26:20 edge in time of possession in the loss. Cal did give up 17 first downs while recording 15 and turned the ball over three times, including a pair of scoop-sixes, while failing to record a takeaway in the game. The team fired Justin Wilcox, so Nick Rolovich takes over on an interim basis.
This season, Cal is 32nd in the nation in passing offense with 265.5 yards per game through the air and 136th in the nation in rushing offense with 72.4 yards per game on the ground. The Golden Bears are 99th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 23.6 points per game, while they are 76th in scoring defense by allowing 25.7 points per contest. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is 257 of 413 passing for 2,787 yards with 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions, plus three rushing scores. Devin Brown (four of seven, 48 yards, TD, INT) is the backup quarterback. Kendrick Raphael leads the ground game with 182 carries for 742 yards and 11 scores. LJ Johnson Jr. (34 carries, 117 yards, two TD) and Brandon High Jr. (23 carries, 98 yards, TD) are next in line in the run game. Jacob De Jesus leads the team with 87 receptions for 795 yards and four touchdowns. Trond Grizzell (45 catches, 669 yards, TD), tight end Mason Mini (35 grabs, 387 yards, four TD), Jordan King (22 receptions, 267 yards, two TD), Raphael (26 grabs, 178 yards, TD) and Mark Hamper (17 catches, 202 yards) are each over 150 receiving yards on the year. Chase Meyer is 30 of 30 on extra point attempts and eight of 11 on field goal attempts with a long of 45 this year. Abram Murray has not attempted an extra point but is four of four on field goal attempts with a long of 49 this season.
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Key Injury Report for Cal:
- Wide receiver Mark Hamper (undisclosed) is out.
- Running back LJ Johnson (undisclosed) is questionable.
SMU vs. Cal Pick
Spread Pick for SMU vs. Cal
- SMU -13 (4 units)
Cal has struggled running the ball all season, ranking last in the FBS in rushing offense on the year. That makes the Golden Bears one-dimensional and they are subpar on the defensive side of the ball as well. SMU is tied for the top spot in the ACC this season with one game to play so they are going to be focused here. The Mustangs have outscored the opposition 109-39 in their three-game win streak and are clicking with Jennings running the offense. SMU is motivated and it’s unclear as to what to expect from a reeling Cal squad with Rolovich running the show this week. Take the Mustangs in this contest.
Over/Under Pick for SMU vs. Cal
- Under 53.5 (4 units)
SMU enters this game having stayed under the number in eight of their 11 games on the year. The Mustangs have turned in seven unders in their last nine games, including four of their five road games this season. Cal has seen the over post a 5-5-1 in their 11 games this season. The Golden Bears have seen the over post a 2-1-1 mark in their last four games entering this contest. Cal has scored at least 27 points six times this season, though they could be challenged here to get to that point. The Mustangs build a lead and shut the Golden Bears down, keeping this game under the number.
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