SMU Mustangs vs Missouri State Bears Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 13, 2025
The SMU Mustangs (1-1) are looking to recover as they are coming off Saturday’s 48-45 double-overtime home loss against the Baylor Bears. Junior quarterback Kevin Jennings looked sharp under center as he completed 16-of-22 passes for 295 yards with three passing touchdowns to one interception while also adding 14 rushes for 16 yards (1.1 yards per carry).
The Missouri State Bears (1-1) are looking to build a winning streak here as they are coming off a 21-20 road win to the Marshall Thundering Herd on Saturday. Senior quarterback Jacob Clark completed 21-of-31 passes for 359 yards with three passing touchdowns and one interception as well as 15 carries for 30 yards (2.0 yards per rush) on the ground.
Before kickoff: NCAAF predictions for SMU Mustangs vs Missouri State Bears in one clean snapshot.
Sign Up for Winners and Whiners News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Mustangs Looking to Get Back in the Win Column
The SMU Mustangs lost at home 48-45 double-overtime home loss against the Baylor Bears in their Week 2 game. The Mustangs blew a two-touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter. The offense was able to have a solid all-around performance as quarterback Kevin Jennings (16-22, 3 TD, 1 INT) had a strong game through the air while running back T.J. Harden was a major factor (19 carries, 115 yards, 3 TD) while wide receiver Romello Brunson (4 receptions, 126 yards, 2 TDs) was a force in the passing game.
The defense of the SMU Mustangs struggled as the Baylor Bears to 48 points on 601 total yards (440 passing, 161 rushing). The Mustangs allowed 32 total first downs as the Bears were 8-for-18 on third downs and 3-for-6 on fourth downs.
SMU has been able to score well as their 43.5 points per game is 27th in college football. The Mustangs are not as hot on the defensive side of the field either as they are 110th in the country with 30.5 points per game given up.
Injury Report for SMU
- Wide receiver Jordan Hudson: Upper Body (Questionable)
- Linebacker Alexander Kilgore: Leg (Questionable)
- Wide receiver Isaiah Robertson: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke: Knee (OUT)
Bears Ready to Roar
The Missouri State Bears are coming off a 21-20 road win against the Marshall Thundering Herd. That was their first win in FBS, after moving up from FCS. Quarterback Jacob Clark had a solid game (21-31, 3 passing TD, one interception, 15 carries, 30 yards) in the win. The team was able to keep drives alive and keep the opposing team off the field as the Bears had a 34:34 time of possession.
The defense of the Bears struggled as they allowed 20 points on 274 total yards of offense (83 passing, 191 rushing). The defense could not slow things down on the ground, though, as Marshall ran for 5.8 yards per attempt. However, Missouri State was able to limit Marshall to just 12 total first downs.
The Bears are not doing too much on the offensive side of the field as they are 117th in the nation by scoring 17.0 points per game. The defense of Missouri State is not doing much better as their 46.5 points per game allowed is 134th in football as well.
Injury Report for Missouri State
- Running back Sage White: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Wide receiver James BlackStrain: Thumb (Questionable)
- Tight end Gary Clinton: Leg (OUT)
SMU Mustangs vs. Missouri State Bears Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for SMU Mustangs vs. Missouri State Bears
- Missouri State Bears +27.5 (4 units)
This is a lot of points to be laying at home, which is the first thing that jumps off the page. Looking at last week, this SMU team has shown the ability to struggle defensively while Missouri State straightened itself out with just 20 points allowed. Jacob Clark also looked a lot better under center with three touchdown passes last week, so it seems like things are beginning to correct themselves in that aspect as well. All in all, go with the Missouri State Bears to keep this game relatively close in their own building.
Over/Under Pick for SMU Mustangs vs. Missouri State Bears
- OVER 61.5 (4 units)
These defenses have shown the inability to get stops as Missouri State allowed 73 points in Week 1 and SMU allowed 48 last week. Both quarterbacks can dominate and find the end zone regularly. With these teams moving the ball down the field quickly, they can score at a great level with strong deep threats littered on the field. Go with OVER 61.5 POINTS as the better bet to make.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $150
