SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 20th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The SMU Mustangs (2-1, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U) take on the TCU Horned Frogs (2-0, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U) in an inter-conference meeting on Saturday afternoon, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Mustangs recorded a road win against Missouri State last week. The Horned Frogs did as expected and posted a home win against Abilene Christian. SMU posted a big 66-42 home win against TCU last season.
Can TCU remain undefeated with a convincing home win on Saturday? Check out the SMU vs. TCU prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Betting Picks!
SMU Targets Third Win of Season
The SMU Mustangs are targeting win number three. SMU has enjoyed a rather easy schedule to this point. The Mustangs beat Texas A&M Commerce 42-13 in the opener. Next, they had a showdown against Baylor and struggled defensively in a narrow 48-45 overtime home defeat. Last week, SMU rebounded with a 28-10 road win against Missouri State, which is now in the FBS, in a clash that had the Mustangs favored by 29 points. The Mustangs have covered the spread in two of three games.
Kevin Jennings is a potent QB. The junior had a dominating 2024 season and has been superb this season. He has posted 260 or more yards in all three games for a total of 836 passing yards and a 6:3 TD to INT ratio. SMU has opted for the run over the pass. T.J. Harden has been hard to contain, amassing 96 yards last week, and has racked up 253 rushing yards on the year. SMU has a potent receiving core. Romeo Brinson has been dominant, bringing in 100 + yards in two of three games, recording 314 yards. Jalen Cooper has 230 yards. The SMU offense posted 448 yards last week and is averaging 435 yards per game.
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The Mustang defense has only been challenged by one tough opponent so far, and it struggled in that game against Baylor. They gave up 601 total yards, but the game did go to OT. Last week, the Mustangs only yielded 328 yards and are conceding an average of 426 yards per game. Isaiah Nwokobia has made a combined 25 tackles. The pass defense is ranked 133rd, while the rush defense is 45th.
SMU is averaging 38.3 points per game, ranking them 39th. The Mustangs have conceded an average of 23.7 points, pegging them 79th.
TCU Remains Undefeated After Two Games
The TCU Horned Frogs are striving for their third win. TCU opened the season on the road against Belichick and the Tar Heels and made a statement with a 48-14 win to cover the 3.5 point spread. TCU had a bye in week two. Next, TCU had an easy one, recording a 42-21 home win against Abilene Christian, but did not cover the mammoth 42-point spread. The Horned Frogs are one of the better teams in the BIG 12. They received votes in the AP Top 25 this week but have not yet earned a spot in the rankings.
Josh Hoover was one of the best QBs in the country last season, and to no surprise, he has been magnificent in two games. The junior QB reported 284 yards in the win against the Tar Heels and has issued 621 passing yards with a 6:1 TD to INT ratio on the season.
Kevorian Barnes has spent his career with UTSA before transferring this season. The senior RB posted 43 yards last week and has managed 156 yards on the year. Nate Palmer is a freshman with 88 yards. Jordan Dwyer had a dominating season with Idaho last season and appears to be in for another outstanding season. The junior WR has brought in 225 receiving yards. Joseph Manjack IV has 138 yards. The TCU offense amassed 490 total yards against Abilene Christian last week and has averaged 515 yards in two games.
The Horned Frogs' defense has been decent after two games. This will be the best offense they’ve seen this season. They kept North Carolina to only 222 total yards and were shaky in the win last week, surrendering 453 yards against Abilene Christian. The unit is conceding an average of 337 yards on the season. Safety Bud Clark has made nine tackles. The pass defense is marked 86th, while the rush defense has been stingy, coming in at 52nd.
TCU is scoring an average of 45 points, rating them 15th. The Horned Frogs have kept the opposition to an average of 17.5 points, good for 46th.
SMU vs. TCU Pick
Spread Pick for SMU vs. TCU
- TCU -7
The SMU Mustangs have won two of three games on the season, but the two wins are nothing to be excited about, considering they were against Texas A&M CC of the FCS and Missouri State. The TCU Horned Frogs are one of the best teams in a strong Big 12 this season. They beat North Carolina by 34 points on the road in their first game and won by 21 points last week.
Furthermore, TCU has a potent passing offense under Josh Hoover. He is one of the best QBS in the country and already has 621 yards in two games. This is key against a Mustangs pass defense that has been exposed, squandering an average of 319 passing yards, pegging them at the bottom at 132nd. This is an especially worrisome number considering two of their three games were against weak squads. TCU QB Hoover dominated in the meeting against the Mustangs last season, posting a stunning 396 passing yards against the Mustangs' defense.
Over/Under Pick for SMU vs. TCU
- Under
I expect this one to go under, considering this huge number. SMU has a strong offense, but this is its toughest opponent so far. The Horned Frogs have only conceded 35 points in two games. SMU will run more than pass and have extended drives. The Horned Frogs' rush defense has been their top strength, conceding an average of 113 rushing yards per game.
In addition, the Mustangs' defense has been a strength except for the game against Baylor, which went to overtime. Baylor scored 10 points in overtime. Dating back to last season, the Mustangs have conceded 13 or fewer points in four of their past five games. The under is 4-1 in the Mustangs’ past five games.
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