South Florida Bulls (USF) at Memphis Tigers Picks and Prediction for Saturday October 25, 2025
Use Code WWWC The top two teams in the American Athletic Conference collide Saturday as the South Florida Bulls visit the Memphis Tigers. Both squads enter at 6-1 overall and 6-1 against the spread, making this one of Week 9’s most intriguing matchups. Memphis has dominated the recent series, winning four straight meetings, including a 21-3 victory in Tampa last season, but South Florida has been a different team this year.
South Florida? Playoffs?
The South Florida Bulls are building a case as one of the nation's most dangerous teams. Winners of four straight, the Bulls improved to 6-1 (3-0 AAC) after a dominant 48-13 home win over FAU last week in which they scored the final 27 points to turn a close game into another blowout.
In the win over FAU, quarterback Byrum Brown completed 14 of 24 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns while adding 111 yards and a score on the ground. He’s now thrown for 1,695 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, while rushing for 475 yards and six TDs on 99 carries. His dual-threat ability has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, and he’s been instrumental in South Florida’s national surge. Running back Nykahi Davenport added 71 rushing yards and a touchdown, and freshman Jeremiah Koger had 90 receiving yards and a touchdown, as USF racked up 522 total yards.
The Bulls’ offense ranks 12th nationally in scoring (40.7 PPG) and 19th in total offense (468.3 YPG). They play at one of the fastest tempos in college football, running a play every 21.3 seconds, and average 6.1 yards per snap.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Defensively, the Bulls rank 71st in scoring defense (24.7 PPG) and are 66th in yards per play allowed, but their ability to generate takeaways has been a difference-maker. With a +1.2 turnover margin per game, South Florida ranks eighth nationally in that category.
Memphis Looks to Rebound After Rare Loss
The Memphis Tigers’ playoff hopes took a major hit last week in a stunning 31-24 road loss to UAB as 24-point favorites. The defeat snapped a 10-game winning streak dating back to last season and marked just the second time in 18 games that Memphis failed to score at least 30 points.
It was a wild scene in Birmingham. UAB, under interim head coach Alex Mortensen, the son of the late ESPN reporter Chris Mortensen, played inspired football just days after firing Trent Dilfer. Memphis had multiple chances to avoid the upset late, reaching the 1-yard line twice in the final minute. But two false starts and a delay-of-game penalty pushed them backward, and a fourth-down pass into the end zone fell incomplete.
Starting Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis started but was replaced early in the second half due to a leg injury by AJ Hill, who finished 13-for-25 for 175 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Lewis is considered questionable, which means Lewis, Hill or Arington Maiden could start or play in this game. The Tigers’ normally powerful rushing attack also struggled to establish dominance, gaining 190 yards but failing to produce explosive plays when it mattered most.
Despite the setback, Memphis remains one of the AAC’s most balanced teams. The Tigers average 437.6 yards per game (32nd nationally), powered by a rushing attack ranked 15th at 221.6 yards per game. Running backs Sutton Smith (480 yards, six TDs) and Greg Desrosiers Jr. (389 yards, five TDs) form a productive duo, while their quarterback Lewis adds 440 rushing yards and seven scores himself.
Defensively, Memphis allows just 18.3 points per game (24th nationally) and ranks among the top 25 against the run, giving up only 106.7 rushing yards per contest.
USF Bulls at Memphis Tigers Predictions
USF Bulls vs Memphis Tigers ATS Pick:
- Memphis Tigers +5 (4 units)
This is a prime bounce-back spot for Memphis after last week’s stunning upset loss at UAB. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a defeat and have covered in four straight meetings against South Florida. Playing at home, where they’ve averaged nearly 42 points per game since 2023, expect Memphis to lean on its dominant rushing attack and improved red-zone execution. South Florida has yet to face a defense this physical on the road. Take the home dog to respond and cover.
USF vs. Memphis Total Pick:
- Under 63 (4 units)
While both teams feature explosive offenses, I believe this total is too high, given the stakes, and level of competition on the other side. The Memphis’ defense has quietly been one of the AAC’s best, holding opponents under 20 points per game and ranking top 25 nationally against the run. South Florida’s fast tempo may lead to more possessions, but the Tigers’ front seven should be able to prevent the Bulls’ ground attack from too many explosive plays. Expect longer drives, especially with both teams relying heavily on the run in key situations. This matchup could stay under 60 points.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
