Stanford vs. SMU Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code WWWC Stanford Cardinal (2-3) vs. SMU Mustangs (3-2)
It’s Week 7 of the 2025 college football season, and the Stanford Cardinal head to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX, to take on the SMU Mustangs in the ACC showdown. And we’ve got you covered with our Stanford vs. SMU prediction.
The Cardinal meet the Mustangs for the second straight season. A year ago, SMU cruised past Stanford 40-10, covering a 16.5-point spread on the road, while the game went under the 52.5-point line. The Mustangs are 19.5-point favorites this time around, and the total sits at 55.5 points.
Let’s take a closer look at this Stanford vs. SMU prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 7. The kick-off at Gerald J. Ford Stadium is set at noon ET.
Stanford hopes to stay on track
The Stanford Cardinal (2-3; 1-4 ATS; 3-2 O/U) started their 2025 campaign with consecutive road losses against Hawaii 23-20 and BYU 27-3. Since then, the Cardinal have gone 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS, sandwiching a 48-20 road defeat at Virginia with home wins over Boston College 30-20 and San Jose State 30-29.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Last week, the Cardinal outlasted the Spartans in a thrilling finish, overcoming a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit. SJSU outgained Stanford 524-481 in total yards, but the Cardinal found a way to make stops in crunch time.
Stanford racked up just 37 rushing yards in Week 6. However, the Cardinal took full advantage of SJSU’s lousy secondary, and senior QB Ben Gulbranson threw for 444 yards and two touchdowns. Senior wideout CJ Williams had 11 receptions for 130 yards, while junior WR Caden High caught five passes for 110 yards.
The Cardinal score 20.6 points per game (tied for 111th in the country) on 96.2 rushing yards (126th) and 233.4 passing yards (tied for 66th). They allow 29.4 points in return (tied for 104th) on 113.2 rushing yards (36th) and 315.0 passing yards (135th).
Gulbranson has thrown for 1,167 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions so far this season. Sophomore RB Micah Ford has 347 rushing yards and three touchdowns on his season tally, while senior wideout Bryce Farrell leads the receiving corps with 18 catches for 346 yards and a touchdown. Stanford has seven wide receivers listed as questionable due to undisclosed injuries.
SMU continues to alternate wins and losses
The SMU Mustangs (3-2; 0-5 ATS; 1-4 O/U) have yet to cover the spread in 2025. They started the season as massive 50.5-point favorites, beating East Texas A&M 42-13. In Week 2, the Mustangs suffered a 48-45 double-overtime defeat to Baylor, while Week 3 saw SMU beat Missouri State 28-10.
Week 4 brought another loss for the Mustangs, as TCU outlasted SMU 35-24 as a 6.5-point fave. After a bye in Week 5, the Mustangs defeated Syracuse 31-18 as 17.5-point home favorites. The Orange outgained the Mustangs 389-370 in total yards, but SMU won the turnover battle 3-1 and committed just two penalties for 15 yards. The Mustangs led the Orange 24-3 at halftime.
Junior signal-caller Kevin Jennings dominated Syracuse, throwing for 285 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. Jennings completed 29 of his 35 passing attempts. Senior WR Romello Brinson had seven receptions for 71 yards, while fellow senior wideout Jordan Hudson posted six catches for 47 yards and a touchdown.
Jennings has tossed for 1,411 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions so far this season. Three wideouts have amassed at least 15 receptions, and Brinson leads the way with 26 catches for 436 yards and three touchdowns. Senior running back TJ Harden has 376 rushing yards and five touchdowns on his season tally.
The Mustangs lean on their passing offense. SMU scores 34.0 points per game (44th in the nation) on 128.0 rushing yards (104th) and 284.0 passing yards (tied for 23rd). The Mustangs allow 24.8 points in return (tied for 75th) on 113.8 rushing yards (37th) and 323.4 passing yards (136th).
Stanford vs. SMU Pick
Spread Pick for Stanford vs. SMU
- SMU -19.5 (5 units)
Both Stanford and SMU have struggled to defend against the pass thus far. They are solid against rushing, and SMU’s ground game is arguably better than Stanford’s. The Cardinal look like a one-dimensional team, so I’m backing the Mustangs to finally beat the number.
The Mustangs have a better quarterback, and their receiving corps is versatile and full of dangerous playmakers. Moreover, the Mustangs force 2.4 turnovers per game, so their defensive unit could easily add to the scoreboard.
SMU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall, while Stanford has only covered the spread once in its previous six outings at any location. At least, the Mustangs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine contests played in October.
Over/Under Pick for Stanford vs. SMU
- Over 55.5 (5 units)
Only one team allows more passing yards than Stanford, and it is SMU. The ball will fly in this clash, so I can only look at the over when it comes to the total. As I noted, it’s hard to run efficiently against these two teams. But they will find a way to move the ball through the air, and I expect to see more than 55 points on the scoreboard. The Cardinal just gave up 29 points to San Jose State. Two weeks ago, they yielded 48 points against Virginia on the road. The Mustangs should be scoring at will in this matchup.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
