Syracuse vs. SMU Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC Syracuse Orange (3-2) vs. SMU Mustangs (2-2)
Week 6 of the 2025 college football season is upon us, and in this preview, we are breaking down the ACC showdown from Gerald J. Ford Stadium to get you the Syracuse vs. SMU prediction and the latest odds update.
The Orange meet the Mustangs for the first time since 1932. SMU is a 17.5-point home favorite, while the total sits at 58.5 points, as the bookies expect a high-scoring affair.
The kick-off is set at 3:30 PM ET, so let’s look closer at this Syracuse vs. SMU prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 6 of the 2025 NCAAF season.
Syracuse is coming off a troubling loss
The Syracuse Orange (3-2; 2-2-1 ATS; 3-2 O/U) put an end to their three-game winning streak last Saturday. After beating UConn 27-20 in overtime in Week 2, FCS Colgate 66-24 in Week 3, and Clemson 34-21 in Week 4, the Orange suffered a 38-3 home loss to Duke in Week 5.
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Two weeks ago, the Orange stunned Clemson as 17.5-point road underdogs. The Orange were outgained by the Tigers in total yards, 503-433, but Syracuse won the turnover battle 2-0. Junior QB Steve Angeli threw for 245 yards and two touchdowns, while senior WR Justus Ross-Simmons caught five passes for 53 yards and a couple of scores.
Angeli suffered a season-ending injury in the third quarter of the Clemson game. A week later, Syracuse’s offense fell apart with sophomore Rickie Collins under center. Duke outgained Syracuse 503-314 in total yards and won the turnover battle 3-0. Collins went 24-of-37 for 229 yards and an interception, while junior WR Johntay Cook lost two fumbles.
“I want to apologize to the Syracuse fan base,” Syracuse coach Fran Brown said. “That performance that you've seen out there today was not good. We had some sparks in there, but we shot ourselves in the foot a whole lot that killed our momentum.”
Syracuse certainly needs more from its rushing offense. The Orange rack up 112.0 rushing yards per game (115th in the nation) and 3.3 yards per carry (tied for 121st). Sophomore RB Yasin Willis leads the way with 63 carries for 296 yards and four touchdowns.
The Orange’s defense needs to improve as well. Syracuse allows 29.6 points per game (112th) on 174.0 rushing yards (tied for 112th) and 290.6 passing yards (132nd). The Orange surrender 6.2 yards per play (tied for 114th).
SMU looks to get back on track
The SMU Mustangs (2-2; 0-4 ATS; 1-3 O/U) are coming off a bye. They’ve been alternating wins and losses through the first four weeks of the season. The Mustangs beat East Texas A&M 42-13 in Week 1 and Missouri State 28-10 in Week 3. They suffered a 48-45 double-overtime defeat to Baylor in Week 2 and a 35-24 loss at TCU in Week 4.
SMU couldn’t cope with TCU’s dynamic offense. The Horned Frogs outgained the Mustangs 517-384 in total yards, and TCU’s signal-caller Josh Hoover threw for 379 yards and five touchdowns. On the other side, junior QB Kevin Jennings went 24-of-38 for 290 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Mustangs rushed 27 times for 94 yards.
“This team has to find a way to finish those games. But this team still has a lot of potential to get better and be competitive in our league,” SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said. “It’s funny, you go 2-2 to start a season, and people forget that you’ve won 22 games in the last two years, or that you’ve not lost a conference game in almost three years in the regular season.”
The Mustangs had a 24-21 lead over TCU with 10:30 remaining in the fourth quarter. However, SMU allowed a couple of big plays down the stretch, and both of Jennings’ interceptions came in crunch time. Now, the Mustangs are yielding 26.5 points per game (tied for 88th in the country) on 114.8 rushing yards (39th) and 334.5 passing yards (136th).
SMU is tallying 34.8 points per game (tied for 44th). The Mustangs rank 89th in the nation in rushing yards per game (141.0), while Jennings has thrown for 1,126 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions so far this season. Senior wideout Romello Brinson leads the receiving corps with 19 receptions for 365 yards and three touchdowns.
Syracuse vs. SMU Pick
Spread Pick for Syracuse vs. SMU
- SMU -17.5 (5 units)
Steve Angeli is a big part of the Orange’s offense, and his absence is a huge blow for Syracuse. The Orange lean on their passing offense, and through the first four weeks of the season, Angeli has thrown for 1,317 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Without Angeli, the Orange will struggle to take full advantage of SMU’s defensive flaws. The Mustangs’ pass defense is full of shortcomings, but it’s hard to rush efficiently against this SMU team. On the other side, Syracuse has struggled against both passing and rushing thus far.
Hereof, I’m backing SMU to win and cover. The Mustangs had two weeks to prepare for this game.
Over/Under Pick for Syracuse vs. SMU
- Over 58.5 (5 units)
I expect the Mustangs to move the chains with ease. SMU will be able to establish its ground game in this matchup, and the Mustangs’ passing offense should torture the Orange all day long. Syracuse can only play better than it did against Duke, so I expect a high-scoring affair.
I’m looking for a few big plays, which will help the over backers. Moreover, Syracuse’s red-zone defense is far from an elite level (tied for 86th in the country). The over is 6-2 in the Orange’s last eight games overall, and it is 4-1 in the Mustangs’ last five showings in conference play.
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