TCU Horned Frogs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Picks and Predictions for Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code WWWC Week 5 of the college football season rolls on with a battle of Big 12 squads looking to continue strong starts as the #24 TCU Horned Frogs travel to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils Friday night and we have you covered with our TCU vs. Arizona State prediction. TCU downed SMU 35-24 at home Saturday, covering the line as a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona State downed Baylor 27-24 on the road Saturday in their previous game, winning outright as a three-point underdog. In the all-time series between the teams as FBS opponents, the Sun Devils won both previous meetings, including a 33-10 road win in the most recent matchup September 20, 1975. Read more about this TCU vs. Arizona State prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Horned Frogs Seek to Remain Unbeaten
TCU cruised past SMU at home in their previous contest last week and heads into conference play ranked as they look to remain unbeaten. The Horned Frogs improved to 3-0 on the year and seek to maintain that momentum. Against SMU, TCU drove down the field for a touchdown on their opening possession and never let the Mustangs get even again. The Horned Frogs owned a 517-394 edge in total offense, picked up 24 first downs while allowing 19, won the turnover battle 2-1 and controlled the clock by a 31:06 to 28:54 margin in the contest. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover tossed a career-high five touchdown passes in the contest.
On the season, TCU ranks 6th in the FBS in passing offense with 341.3 yards per game, while they are 63rd in rushing offense by grinding out 174.7 yards per contest. The Horned Frogs are 23rd in the nation in scoring offense by putting up 41.7 points per contest, while they are 51st in scoring defense as they give up 19.7 points per game. Josh Hoover is 70 of 103 passing for 1,000 yards with 11 touchdowns against two interceptions along with 30 rushing yards. Ken Seals (four of six, 24 yards, INT) is the backup quarterback. Jeremy Payne is the team’s second-leading rusher with 23 carries for 110 yards on the season. Trent Battle (12 carries, 108 yards, two TD), Nate Palmer (15 carries, 90 yards) and Kevorian Barnes (21 carries, 156 yards, TD) are all in the mix. Eric McAlister is the team’s second-leading receiver with 13 catches for a team-high 320 yards and three scores. Jordan Dwyer (17 catches, 257 yards, two TD), Joseph Manjack IV (nine receptions, 153 yards, TD) and tight end DJ Rogers (nine catches, 82 yards, TD) are other key contributors in the passing game. Kyle Lemmermann is six of six on extra point attempts and two of two on field goals with a long of 33 this season. Nate McCashland is 11 of 11 on extra point attempts and missed his lone field goal attempt on the year.
Barnes (leg), Jordan Bailey (undisclosed), Brandon James (undisclosed), Gekyle Baker (undisclosed), Lemmermann (leg) and Caleb Sempebwa (undisclosed) are all out for this contest.
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Arizona State Hoping to Earn Road Victory
Arizona State won their second straight game as it took care of business on the road against Baylor in their conference opener. The Sun Devils improved to 3-1 overall and stand 1-0 in Big 12 action on the season entering this contest. Against Baylor, Arizona State battled in a tight game that went to the wire and wasn’t decided until Jesus Gomez nailed a 43-yard field goal as time expired, capping an 11-play, 49-yard drive. The Sun Devils owned a 400-357 advantage in total offense, held a 26-19 edge in first downs, controlled the clock by a 36:24 to 23:36 margin and forced three turnovers while not committing any in the contest.
The Sun Devils are averaging 187 yards per game through the air this season (101st in the nation) while they run for 219 yards per contest, which is 24th in the country. Arizona State is 73rd in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 29.8 points per game and they stand 56th in scoring defense by allowing 20.5 points per contest. Sam Leavitt is 72 of 118 passing for 748 yards with six touchdowns against three picks while ranking second on the team with 219 yards and four scores this season. Raleek Brown is the leading rusher for the team with 56 carries for 372 yards and two touchdowns this season. Kyson Brown (11 carries, 93 yards) and Kanye Udoh (39 carries, 156 yards, TD) have seen work as well. In the passing game, Jordyn Tyson (31 receptions, 357 yards, five TD) is the team’s top target. Kyson Brown (eight catches, 72 yards), tight end Chamon Metayer (13 receptions, 135 yards, TD) and Raleek Brown (10 grabs, 57 yards) are the only other players with more than four catches this season. Jesus Gomez is 12 of 12 on extra points and nine of 10 on field goal attempts with a long of 51 on the year.
Safety Xavion Alford is expected to be out again here as he deals with what coach Kenny Dillingham calls a “multi-week injury.” Nickel corner Montana Warren and receiver Jalen Moss are also expected to miss the contest.
TCU vs. Arizona State Pick
Moneyline Pick for TCU vs. Arizona State
- TCU +120 (4 units)
Arizona State may be at home and coming in off a win over Baylor here, but TCU is a road dog that one can get behind. The Sun Devils have struggled against the pass this season, giving up at least 242 yards through the air in three of their four games. They have allowed eight passing touchdowns while recording only two picks to date this year. Meanwhile, TCU is sixth in the nation in passing offense with 11 scoring passes, and they have thrown for at least 284 yards in each contest. Arizona State’s bread and butter is the run game, but the Horned Frogs have shut that down, allowing only 107 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry on the year. Even those numbers are skewed by Abilene Christian running the ball 46 times for 177 yards in a three-touchdown loss. TCU is live here and storms out of Tempe with a win.
Over/Under Pick for TCU vs. Arizona State
- Over 54.5 (4 units)
TCU is explosive offensively, putting up at least 35 points in all three games this season, including a pair with more than 40. The Horned Frogs have put up at least 34 points in eight of their last 10 contests, dating back to last season. TCU has seen combined totals of 62, 63 and 59 points in their games this year. Arizona State has put up at least 27 points in three of their four games this year. The Sun Devils have turned in three straight unders but it’s hard to see them slowing the Horned Frogs to a crawl here. Arizona State has seen totals of 57, 44, 49 and 51 points on the year. With the way TCU is clicking, this one winds up over the number.
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