TCU vs. BYU Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 15, 2025

TCU Horned Frogs (6-3) vs. BYU Cougars (8-1) 

Another exciting Saturday of college football is here, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Big 12 Conference showdown from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT, to get you the TCU vs. BYU prediction.

The Horned Frogs meet the Cougars for the first time since October 14, 2023, when TCU trounced BYU 44-11 as a 5-point home favorite. TCU is a 3.5-point road underdog this time around, while the total sits at 51.5 points.

Read more about this TCU vs. BYU prediction, and check out all our NCAAF picks for Week 12. The kick-off at LaVell Edwards Stadium is set at 10:15 PM ET.

TCU upset its fans in Week 11                                                     

The TCU Horned Frogs (6-3; 4-5 ATS; 4-5 O/U) are coming off a 20-17 home defeat to Iowa State in Week 11. They were 7.5-point favorites, and the Horned Frogs blew a 17-6 lead in the fourth quarter. Aiden Flora shocked TCU with a 79-yard punt return to the house, and the Horned Frogs couldn’t get to the field-goal range in the final six minutes.

TCU outgained Iowa State 432-272 in total yards but lost the turnover battle 3-2. The Horned Frogs mustered 30 1st downs while going 7-for-14 on a 3rd down and 2-for-3 on a 4th down, and it wasn’t enough. Junior QB Josh Hoover threw for 319 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions, while junior WR Jordan Dwyer had 11 catches for 108 yards and a TD.

“We’ve got to close games out better obviously,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes said. “I don’t know if closing games out is the issue as much as it is committing critical mistakes in the game. The game gets closed out better if you make a field goal, if you don’t give up a punt return for a touchdown.”

TCU failed to extend its winning streak to three games and dropped to 3-3 in conference play. In their previous two showings, the Horned Frogs beat Baylor 42-36 in Week 8 and West Virginia 23-17 in Week 9.

The Horned Frogs score 32.7 points per game (tied for 41st in the nation) and allow 24.6 points in return (tied for 72nd). Hoover has thrown for 2,690 yards, 23 touchdowns, and eight interceptions this season, while senior WR Eric McAlister has recorded 834 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.

BYU’s win streak is over                                                        

The No. 12 BYU Cougars (8-1; 6-3 ATS; 4-5 O/U) are coming off their first loss of the season. Last Saturday, they suffered a 29-7 defeat at Texas Tech. The Cougars failed to cover a 13.5-point spread on the road and dropped to 5-1 in conference play. Now, BYU is tied with Cincinnati for the second spot in the Big 12.

The Cougars’ offense completely fell apart in Week 11. BYU racked up just 255 total yards, going 3-for-14 on 3rd down and 1-for-3 on 4th down. The Cougars lost a couple of fumbles, and freshman QB Bear Bachmeier tossed for 188 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.

“A couple of passes and a muffed punt cost us, I think, 13 points,” BYU coach Kalani Sitake said. “Even after that, I thought we were going to be able to respond and make a game of it in the second half, but we weren’t able to do that.”

It’s been a great run for the Cougars, who have recorded a couple of impressive wins during their streak. BYU outlasted Utah 24-21 as a 4.5-point home dog in Week 8 and beat Iowa State 41-27 as a 2.5-point road dog in Week 9.

The Cougars tally 33.0 points per game (tied for 32nd in the country) and surrender just 18.3 points in return (16th). Bachmeier has thrown for 1,881 yards, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions thus far while rushing for 420 yards and nine scores. Wideouts Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston have combined for 1,211 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.

TCU vs. BYU Pick 

Spread Pick for TCU vs. BYU      

• BYU -3.5 (5 units) 

I think BYU is a better defensive team than TCU, and I expect the Cougars’ defensive unit to make a difference. Of course, the Cougars’ offense will have to play much better than it did last week, and TCU is arguably a much weaker defensive team than Texas Tech.

TCU allows 241.6 passing yards per game (103rd in the nation), and Bear Bachmeier will have an easier task than he had against Texas Tech. On the other side, BYU allows just 192.2 passing yards per game (33rd). The Cougars forced Texas Tech to kick five field goals last Saturday.

BYU is 10th in the country in red-zone defense, whereas TCU ranks 110th in this category. The Cougars are chasing the playoff spot and a place in the Big 12 Conference championship game, so I’m backing them to beat TCU at home and cover a 3.5-point spread.

Over/Under Pick for TCU vs. BYU            

• Under 51.5 (5 units) 

These two teams have done a good job against rushing thus far. TCU allows 124.0 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry, while BYU yields 131.6 yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

The Cougars have relied on their defense all season, and I expect them to slow the Horned Frogs down. Both teams will rely on passing, but I don’t expect to see a high-scoring affair. BYU’s offense is not explosive, and the Cougars like to pound the rock. They tally 200.0 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.

TCU posts just 122.8 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. The under has hit in five of the Horned Frogs’ last seven games overall.