TCU vs. Kansas State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code WWWC TCU Horned Frogs (4-1) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (2-4)
Week 7 of the 2025 college football season is upon us, and in this preview, we are breaking down Saturday’s Big 12 Conference showdown from Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS, to get you the TCU vs. Kansas State prediction.
The Horned Frogs take on the Wildcats for the first time since October 21, 2023, when Kansas State trounced TCU 41-3 as a 5.5-point home fave. The Wildcats have dominated the Horned Frogs lately, going 5-1 SU and ATS in their previous six encounters.
Read more about this TCU vs. Kansas State prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 7. The kick-off at Bill Snyder Family Stadium is set at 3:30 PM ET, and TCU is a slight 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 55.5 points.
TCU is back on track
The TCU Horned Frogs (4-1; 3-2 ATS; 2-3 O/U) started their 2025 campaign with a three-game winning streak, outlasting North Carolina 48-14, Abilene Christian 42-21, and SMU 35-24 in the process. After a 27-24 loss at Arizona State in Week 4 and a bye in Week 5, the Horned Frogs defeated Colorado 35-21 in Week 6.
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TCU covered a 13.5-point spread last Saturday. The Horned Frogs scored 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to see off the Buffaloes’ challenge. Junior QB Josh Hoover went 23-of-33 for 275 yards and four touchdowns while rushing eight times for 20 yards and a touchdown.
“Kind of a frustrating game,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes said. “Proud of our players for making plays down the stretch and in critical situations.”
Hoover has done a great job so far this season, tossing for 1,517 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions. TCU has three guys with at least 301 receiving yards, and senior wideout Eric McAlister leads the way with 17 receptions for 385 yards and five touchdowns.
Senior RB Kevorian Barnes returned from a two-game absence last Saturday, carrying the pigskin 16 times for 48 yards. Barnes has amassed 204 rushing yards and a touchdown through three appearances this season, while fellow senior RB Trent Battle has 154 rushing yards and three touchdowns on his season tally.
On the other side of the ball, senior LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr leads the way with 40 tackles and three sacks, while junior safety Jamel Johnson had three interceptions and 38 tackles. The Horned Frogs allow 21.4 points per game (tied for 56th in the country) on 129.6 rushing yards (54th) and 249.2 passing yards (109th).
Kansas State is coming off a tough loss
The Kansas State Wildcats (2-4; 2-4 ATS; 3-3 O/U) are not enjoying their season at all. After three losses through the first four weeks and a 34-20 home victory over UCF in Week 5, the Wildcats suffered a heartbreaking 35-34 defeat at Baylor in Week 6.
K-State blew a 31-17 lead last Saturday. The Wildcats outgained the Bears 506-444 in total yards and won the turnover battle 2-1, but it wasn’t enough. Junior QB Avery Johnson threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for another, but his turnover cost the Wildcats a lot. Jacob Redding’s 66-yard pick-six gave Baylor a 32-31 lead with 4:17 left on the clock.
“We did things well enough to win, but we didn’t earn the win,” Kansas State coach Chris Klieman said. “That’s why we’re walking out of here with a one-point loss and a lot of woulda, shoulda, couldas.”
Johnson has thrown for 1,363 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions so far this season. He leads the team in rushing yards with 209 and rushing touchdowns with three, while sophomore RB Joe Jackson has accounted for 274 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. Junior WR Jayce Brown has amassed 494 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. The Wildcats have three wide receivers listed as questionable due to an undisclosed injury and RB Dylan Edwards (ankle), who had 166 yards rushing against UCF, is questionable.
On the other side of the ball, junior LB Austin Romaine has 45 tackles, including 4.5 for a loss. Junior DE Tobi Osunsanmi is having a nice year with four sacks and six tackles for a loss, while junior DB Qua Moss has recorded four tackles for a loss and two interceptions thus far.
The Wildcats allow 26.8 points per game (tied for 93rd in the country). They rank 109th in the nation in rushing yards allowed (167.7 per game) and 61st in passing yards allowed (208.3).
TCU vs. Kansas State Pick
Spread Pick for TCU vs. Kansas State
- Kansas State +1.5 (5 units)
Four of Kansas State’s six games in 2025 have been decided by three points, and Week 6 brings another tight battle for the Wildcats. This game will be decided late in the fourth quarter, and frankly, it could easily go either way.
I’m backing the Wildcats because of their passing defense. TCU’s ground game has struggled thus far, and Kansas State has enough weapons to slow the Horned Frogs’ passing offense down. That could make a difference down the stretch.
TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall, while K-State is 3-9 ATS in its previous 12. However, the Horned Frogs have struggled against the Wildcats over the last few years, as I mentioned in the intro, and Kansas State has won 14 of its last 17 home games.
Over/Under Pick for TCU vs. Kansas State
- Under 55.5 (5 units)
The Wildcats struggle against the rush, but I’m not sure that TCU has the weapons to take full advantage of Kansas State’s shortcomings. The Horned Frogs are way more dangerous when attacking through the air, and I expect the Wildcats to slow TCU down.
Kansas State has kept its opponents below a 25-point mark in three of its previous four outings. The Wildcats will have to bring their best defense if they want to beat the Horned Frogs. The under has hit in eight of the last nine encounters between these two schools.
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