Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction and Picks - September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC Southeastern Conference College Football action on Saturday afternoon, and we have a Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction locked and loaded for you. The Volunteers bounced back from their loss to Georgia with a 56-24 home win over UAB to move to 3-1 on the year. Mississippi State enters this contest off a 38-10 home win over Northern Illinois, which puts them at a perfect 4-0 on the year. Tennessee won last year's meeting by a score of 33-14. Can the Bulldogs get revenge for that loss? Continue reading to see our Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction.
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Volunteers Bounce Back In A Big Way
Tennessee enters Saturday’s matchup with a 3–1 record and a top-15 national ranking, fresh off a dominant 56–24 win over UAB. Quarterback Joey Aguilar was sharp, throwing for 218 yards and three touchdowns on 68.2% passing, while Peyton Lewis added 81 yards on the ground at 7.4 yards per carry. The Volunteers have scored 214 points through four games—second-most in the country—and rank fifth nationally in passing yards. Head coach Josh Heupel’s offense is built for tempo and vertical pressure, and they’ve hit 235+ rushing yards in three of four games, giving Aguilar clean third-down looks and play-action leverage.
Defensively, Tennessee has been disruptive and opportunistic. The Vols rank third nationally in sacks (15) and fourth in interceptions (3), with a front seven that collapses pockets and forces hurried throws. They’ve allowed 24 points or fewer in three of four games and have held opponents under 300 total yards twice. The secondary, led by Kamal Hadden and Wesley Walker, has been aggressive in man coverage, while linebacker Elijah Herring anchors a unit that’s thriving in short-yardage and red zone situations. Tennessee’s +5 turnover margin and top-10 third-down defense give them a strong foundation heading into SEC play.
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Saturday’s trip to Starkville is pivotal. Tennessee has won eight of the last nine meetings against Mississippi State, but after a collapse against Georgia, there’s no room for error with Alabama and Oklahoma still ahead. If Aguilar continues to protect the ball and the run game sets the tone early, the Vols are built to control tempo and force Mississippi State into a pass-heavy script. With playoff hopes still alive, this is a must-win for Tennessee to stay in the SEC Championship conversation.
Bulldogs Off To Best Start Since 2014
Mississippi State is off to its best start since 2014, sitting at 4–0 after a convincing 38–10 win over Northern Illinois. Quarterback Blake Shapen has been efficient, throwing for 160 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 51 more in last week’s win. Running back Da’Marion “Fluff” Bothwell continues to be the engine of the offense, racking up 101 yards on 17 carries and adding two receptions. The Bulldogs have scored 159 points through four games and rank 14th nationally in scoring offense, with a ground-heavy attack that wears down defenses and controls the clock.
Defensively, Mississippi State has allowed just 47 points all season—24th best in the country—and has been dominant at home, holding opponents to under 300 total yards in all three games at Davis Wade Stadium. The Bulldogs have forced multiple turnovers in each outing and rank top-20 in fumble recoveries and red zone defense. Linebacker Jett Johnson leads the team in tackles and has been a disruptive force in the middle, while the secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to under 55% completions. Their ability to stop the run and force third-and-long situations has been key to their early success.
Saturday’s game is a litmus test for Mississippi State’s legitimacy in the SEC race. They haven’t faced a high-powered offense like Tennessee’s yet, and how they handle Aguilar’s tempo and deep ball will be telling. If Shapen can stay clean and Bothwell continues to move the chains, the Bulldogs have the formula to shorten the game and keep it close. With three of their next four games on the road—including Georgia and Ole Miss—this home matchup is critical. A win would vault them into the national conversation and set the tone for a potential breakout season.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Pick
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Spread Pick
- Mississippi State +8.5 (4 Units)
Mississippi State +8.5 is a sharp play in a spot where motivation, matchup, and historical trends all line up. The Bulldogs are 10–1 ATS when seeking double-revenge, and they’ve dropped two straight to Tennessee by a combined 41 points. This year, they’re undefeated, playing at home, and finally have a balanced offense behind Blake Shapen and Da’Marion Bothwell. The defense has been stout at Davis Wade, allowing under 300 yards in every home game, and they’ve forced multiple turnovers in all four contests. If they can control tempo and keep Joey Aguilar off the field, they’re built to hang inside the number.
Tennessee has the firepower, but they’ve yet to face a defense this disciplined or a run game this physical. The Vols have leaned on early leads and explosive plays, but Mississippi State’s red zone defense and ball control could flip the script. Add in the coaching edge, home-field intensity, and a locker room that knows what’s at stake, and this sets up as a four-quarter fight. Even if Tennessee escapes with the win, the Bulldogs have the tools to cover and keep their SEC momentum alive.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Over/Under Pick
- Over 64 (5 Units)
Over 64 is in play with two offenses that thrive on tempo, chunk plays, and red zone efficiency. Tennessee ranks second nationally in scoring and fifth in passing yards, while Mississippi State has quietly posted 38+ in three of four games behind Blake Shapen’s mobility and Da’Marion Bothwell’s downhill power. Both defenses have playmakers, but neither has faced an opponent this fast or this balanced. If Joey Aguilar continues to push vertical routes and Shapen avoids early mistakes, this game could turn into a shootout by the second quarter. With both teams capable of scoring in bunches, the total has room to clear.
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