Tennessee vs. Illinois Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Two 8-4 teams will go head to head on Tuesday in the Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee when the Tennessee Volunteers face the Illinois Fighting Illini. This will be the first ever meeting between these two programs. Make sure you are ready for all the upcoming bowls with our free college football picks.
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Vols led by their offense
Tennessee comes into this game ranked 19th in the College Football Power Index. They are ninth in offensive efficiency, and 43rd on the defensive end.
The Volunteers will be looking to end their season on a high note after falling to rival Vanderbilt 45-24 in their regular season finale. Tennessee's other losses this season all came to playoff teams: Georgia (44-41), Alabama (37-20), and Oklahoma (33-27).
Quarterback Joey Aguilar, a transfer from Appalachian State, has led the way this season, completing just under 67% of his throws for 3,444 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while ranking 20th nationally in QBR. Running back DeSean Bishop adds balance with 983 rushing yards at 6.0 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns..
Tennessee ranks fifth nationally in total offense at just over 482 yards per game and sixth in scoring at 40.3 points per game, thriving on pace and explosive plays. Defensively, however, the Vols sit 86th in total defense (395.5 yards allowed per game) and 91st in scoring defense (28.8 points per game).
The Volunteers have several important opt-outs for this game, including the teams leading receiver Chris Brazzell II. There are also several key pieces on defense who have opted out including the team’s leading tackler Arion Carter.
Can Illinois keep up
The Illinois Fighting Illini are 31st overall in the College Football Power Index ratings, while coming in 27th in offensive efficiency and 46th on the defensive end. They ended the regular season with a 20-13 win over Northwestern, which followed a disappointing loss to Wisconsin. Illinois other loses this season came to Indiana (63-10), Ohio State (34-16), and Washington (42-25).
The Illini are 89th overall in yards per game (370.3) and 55th in scoring (29.3 ppg). Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been efficient, throwing for 2,811 yards with 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions, and Hank Beatty leads the Illini with 826 receiving yards. On the ground, Illinois has mixed in a committee approach, led by Calil Valentine, who has 549 rushing yards and four touchdowns and gives the Illini a shifty, high-effort back to pair with their power run looks.
On defense, Illinois is 47th allowing 350.5 yards per game, and 55th holding opponents to 23.3 ppg. Illinois will be without All-Big Ten outside linebacker Gabe Jacas, who leads the team with 11 sacks, and they finished the regular season allowing modest yardage totals in most Big Ten games by shortening contests and winning at the line of scrimmage. Safety Matthew Bailey, who led with 76 tackles, will miss the bowl game as well due to shoulder surgery.
Tennessee vs Illinois ATS pick
- Tennessee -2.5 (5 Units)
Tennessee owns the clear edge offensively with quarterback Joey Aguilar leading the team to the sixth most prolific passing attack in the nation this season in terms of yards per game, and solid running game supporting it. The Vols offense has proven it can score on anybody, and it will be hard for the Illini to match blows, as they don’t posses the same fire power. Even with key opt-outs at receiver and on defense, the Vols still possess superior speed and depth at the skill positions compared to an Illinois team that relies more on discipline and physicality than raw explosiveness.
On the defensive side, although Tennessee has struggled, the Illini don’t rate out better, and will also have huge pieces missing as well. With this game also being played in Tennessee, I like the Vols to roll.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Tennessee vs Illinois total pick
- Over 61.5 (4 Units)
Tennessee has one of the top offenses in the nation and ranks sixth in plays per second, pushing tempo and creating constant pressure. Illinois, meanwhile, sits just 97th in pace and will try to slow the game down to limit the Volunteers’ explosiveness. The problem is Illinois doesn’t run the ball well, and once they fall behind, they’ll be forced to open things up through the air.
Illinois has been pulled into some high-scoring games this season, which include combining for 73 points with Indiana, 66 with USC, 70 with Purdue, and 67 with Washington. Also, with key defensive players missing on both sides, we should see some big plays and consistent scoring.
Tennessee has scored 40+ points seven times this season and has allowed at least 24 points in nine games.
Everything points to points here. Take the over.
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