Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky Wildcats Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 18, 2025

A pair of SEC programs collide on the gridiron in the Bluegrass State as the #21 Texas Longhorns travel to take on the Kentucky Wildcats Saturday night and we have you covered with our Texas vs. Kentucky prediction. Texas comes in off a 23-6 win over #6 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry last Saturday, covering the line as a three-point favorite, in their previous contest. Kentucky was hammered 35-14 on the road by #12 Georgia last Saturday, failing to cover the line as a 20-point underdog. In the all-time series between the teams, the Longhorns have won both previous meetings, including a 31-14 home win in the most recent matchup on November 23, 2024. Read more about this Texas vs. Kentucky prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!

Longhorns Seeking to Avoid Letdown

Texas rebounded from a loss to Florida in the Swamp as they dropped #6 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry last weekend. The Longhorns improved to 4-2 overall and 1-1 in SEC play as they take the field here on the road. Against Oklahoma, Texas got off to a slow start but got into gear in the second half to earn the win. The Longhorns were down 3-0 after one quarter, 6-0 in the second quarter and 6-3 at the half. Texas outscored Oklahoma 20-0 in the second half to earn the victory. The Longhorns held a 302-258 advantage in total offense, owned a 30:58 to 29:02 margin in time of possession, and forced three turnovers while not committing any in the game. Those numbers offset that they gave up 16 first downs while picking up 15 in the contest.

On the year, the Longhorns are 66th in the nation in passing offense as they average 233.2 yards per game through the air, while they are 56th in rushing offense by racking up 166.5 yards per contest on the ground. Texas is 72nd in the FBS in scoring offense, as they average 28.5 points per game, while they are 3rd in scoring defense by allowing 11 points a contest. Arch Manning is 102 of 162 passing for 1,317 yards with 12 touchdowns against five interceptions while leading the team with 194 yards and five scores on the ground. Matthew Caldwell (seven of 10, 75 yards, 64 rush yards) and Karle Lacey Jr. (one of one, seven yards) are next up on the depth chart. Quintrevion Wisner leads the running back group with 46 carries for 185 yards and a score this season. James Simon (29 carries, 122 yards), Jerrick Gibson (37 carries, 152 yards, TD), Christian Clark (29 carries, 116 yards, TD) and CJ Baxter (24 carries, 110 yards) have seen action as well. Ryan Wingo leads the team with 22 receptions for 298 yards and four scores this season. Parker Livingstone (15 catches, 308 yards, three TD), DeAndre Moore Jr. (17 grabs, 240 yards, TD) and tight end Jack Endries (11 catches, 112 yards, two TD) are all over the 100-yard receiving mark this season. Mason Shipley is 21 of 21 on extra point attempts and eight of 10 on field goal attempts with a long of 48 on the year.

Kentucky Looking to Earn Home Upset

Kentucky suffered a second straight loss as they were drubbed on the road by #12 Georgia in their previous contest. The Wildcats fell to 2-3 overall and stand 0-3 in the SEC on the season as they take the field in this contest. Against Georgia, Kentucky trailed 14-0 after the opening quarter and never got closer than seven the rest of the way. The Wildcats were down 21-7 at the half and 35-7 after three quarters en route to the loss. Kentucky was outgained 425-270 in total offense, gave up 25 first downs while picking up 19, and lost time of possession by a 33:38 to 26:22 margin. Both teams turned the ball over twice in the game.

The Wildcats enter this game ranked 115th in the FBS in passing offense with an average of 172.2 yards per game. Kentucky was 65th in the nation in rushing offense with an average of 159.4 yards per game on the year. The Wildcats were 93rd in scoring offense as they averaged 24.4 points per contest and stood 97th in scoring defense as they limited the opposition to 27.8 points per game this season. Cutter Boley is 48 of 84 passing for 627 yards with four scores and three interceptions while adding two yards on the ground. Zach Calzada (25 of 52, 234 yards, INT, 23 rush yards, TD) has seen action under center as well. Seth McGowan leads the run game with 79 carries for 431 yards and seven scores on the season. Dante Dowdell (56 carries, 247 yards, TD) and Jason Patterson (14 carries, 83 yards, TD) are effective in the run game. Kendrick Law leads the team with 19 catches for 174 yards and a score on the year. Ja’Mori Maclin (eight grabs, 135 yards), Josh Kattus (nine catches, 141 yards, two TD), Hardley Gilmore IV (nine receptions, 121 yards) and Willie Rodriguez (nine catches, 141 yards, TD) are valuable options in the passing game. Jacob Kauwe is 14 of 14 on extra point attempts and eight of nine on field goal attempts with a long of 51 this season.

Calzada (shoulder) remains questionable for this contest.

Texas vs. Kentucky Pick

Spread Pick for Texas vs. Kentucky

• Texas -10.5 (4 units)

Kentucky is winless in SEC play, losing by seven to Ole Miss before getting waxed by South Carolina and Georgia in its previous two contests. Neither quarterback for the Wildcats (Boley or Calzada) has looked overwhelmingly good under center. Kentucky has turned the ball over eight times in their five games, while Texas has recorded 12 takeaways on the defensive side of the ball. While the Longhorns have had their struggles at times offensively this season, they are coming in off a win over a top-10 team in Oklahoma, and their defense has been stellar this season. Look for the Longhorns to pick up the win here in convincing fashion.

Over/Under Pick for Texas vs. Kentucky

• Under 42.5 (4 units)

Texas has seen the under post a 4-2 mark in their six games this season. The Longhorns have allowed 14 points or less in five of their six games this season, with the lone exception when Florida hung 29 two weeks ago. Kentucky comes into this game having seen the over post a 4-1 mark on the season. The Wildcats opened the season with an under in their season-opening win over Toledo as the teams combined for 40 points against a number of 48.5 points. They posted totals of 53 and 71 points in their games against Ole Miss and Eastern Michigan to go over the total in both games. That was followed by 48 points in their loss to South Carolina and 49 points in their loss to Georgia. Given the way the Longhorns clamp down defensively, this game ends up falling short of the number.

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