Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 25, 2025
Use Code WWWC A pair of SEC programs collide on the gridiron in the Magnolia State as the #22 Texas Longhorns travel to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Texas vs. Mississippi State prediction. Texas escaped with a 16-13 overtime road win over Kentucky last Saturday, failing to cover the line as a 12-point favorite, in their previous contest. Mississippi State fell 23-21 on the road at Florida last Saturday, though they did cover the line as a 9.5-point underdog. In the all-time series between the teams, the Longhorns have won a 3-2 edge and won the last two meetings, including a 35-13 home win in the most recent matchup on September 28, 2024. Read more about this Texas vs. Mississippi State prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Longhorns Looking for Better Execution
Texas won their second straight as they slipped past Tennessee in overtime but they have to consider itself fortunate after being badly outplayed for the majority of the contest. The Longhorns improved to 5-2 overall and 2-1 in SEC play as they take the field here on the road. Against Kentucky, Texas led 7-0 at the half and 10-3 after three quarters in a rock fight. The Longhorns took a 13-10 lead with 53 seconds remaining in regulation but allowed Kentucky to drive for the tying field goal with nine seconds remaining in regulation. In overtime, Texas kicked a field goal after stopping the Wildcats on downs to earn the win. The Longhorns were outgained 395-179 in total offense, gave up 26 first downs while picking up 8 and lost time of possession by a 39:23 to 20:37 margin, yet still won. They did force the lone turnover of the game.
On the year, the Longhorns are 80th in the nation in passing offense as they average 218.7 yards per game through the air, while they are 75th in rushing offense by racking up 149.4 yards per contest on the ground. Texas is 81st in the FBS in scoring offense, as they average 26.7 points per game, while they are 3rd in scoring defense by allowing 11.3 points a game. Arch Manning is 114 of 189 passing for 1,449 yards with 12 touchdowns against five interceptions while ranking second on the team with 193 yards and five scores on the ground. Matthew Caldwell (seven of 10, 75 yards, 64 rush yards) and Karle Lacey Jr. (one of one, seven yards) are next up on the depth chart. Quintrevion Wisner leads the running back group with 58 carries for 222 yards and two scores this season. James Simon (29 carries, 122 yards), Jerrick Gibson (37 carries, 152 yards, TD), Christian Clark (32 carries, 129 yards, TD) and CJ Baxter (24 carries, 110 yards) have seen action as well. Ryan Wingo leads the team with 24 receptions for 320 yards and four scores this season. Parker Livingstone (15 catches, 308 yards, three TD), DeAndre Moore Jr. (20 grabs, 277 yards, TD), Jordan Washington (six grabs, 104 yards, TD) and tight end Jack Endries (12 catches, 111 yards, two TD) are all over the 100-yard receiving mark this season. Mason Shipley is 22 of 22 on extra point attempts and 11 of 13 on field goal attempts with a long of 53 on the year.
Baxter (undisclosed) is questionable for this contest.
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Mississippi State Trying to Snap Slide
Mississippi State started the year 4-0 but suffered a third straight loss as they fell in the swamp to Florida last week. The Bulldogs enter this game 4-3 overall, 0-3 in SEC play, as they try to get back on track. Against Florida, Mississippi State led 7-0 but gave up 20 unanswered points. The Bulldogs never got even after that, though they cut the margin to two points with two minutes to play and had one final drive that reached the Florida 29-yard line before Blake Shapen threw an interception. Mississippi State owned a 468-452 advantage in total offense, gave up 24 first downs while picking up 22 and had a narrow 30:05 to 29:55 edge in time of possession in the contest. Both teams turned the ball over twice in the contest.
On the year, the Bulldogs are 70th in the nation in passing offense with 227.3 yards per contest, while they are 48th in rushing offense by picking up 178.6 yards per contest. Mississippi State is 50th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 31.9 points per game, while they are 38th in scoring defense by allowing 20.3 points per contest. Blake Shapen has hit 124 of 185 passes for 1,525 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions while adding 20 yards and a score on the ground this season. Kamario Taylor (two of three, 46 yards, TD, 92 rush yards, TD) and Luke Kromenhoek (two of four, 20 yards, 24 rush yards, TD) are next in line on the depth chart. Fluff Bothwell leads the team in the run game with 84 carries for 465 yards and six scores this season. Davon Booth (81 carries, 371 yards, six TD) and Xavier Gayten (14 carries, 122 yards, TD) are also in the mix. Anthony Evans III leads the team with 42 receptions for 471 yards and two scores on the year. Brenan Thompson (29 catches, 533 yards, four TD), Jordan Mosley (eight grabs, 168 yards, TD), Seydou Traore (13 receptions, 160 yards, three TD) and Ayden Williams (10 catches, 122 yards) are other options for Shapen to target. Kyle Ferrie is 26 of 26 on extra points and seven of nine on field goal attempts with a long of 55 this season. Marlon Hauck is two of two on extra point attempts but has not attempted a field goal this year.
Bothwell (leg) was injured against Texas A&M and is unlikely to take the field here.
Texas vs. Mississippi State Pick
Spread Pick for Texas vs. Mississippi State
- Mississippi State +7 (4 units)
Texas has been dismal offensively of late, as they were completely stymied by Kentucky on the road in their previous contest. The Longhorns were smacked around by the Wildcats and were fortunate to earn an overtime win. Mississippi State has dropped three straight games entering this contest but they pushed Tennessee and Florida to the limit in two of those games. The Bulldogs are stingy defensively and they can make life difficult for a Texas team that sputtered last week. Mississippi State, playing at home, does enough to cover the line as the Longhorns’ offense doesn’t inspire confidence.
Over/Under Pick for Texas vs. Mississippi State
- Under 45.5 (4 units)
Texas has seen the under post a 5-2 mark in their seven games this season. The Longhorns have allowed 14 points or less in six of their seven games this season, with the lone exception when Florida hung 29 three weeks ago. Mississippi State has seen the under post a 5-2 mark in their seven games so far this season. The Bulldogs have split their four games at home in relation to the total. We’ve got two teams that are in the top 40 in the FBS in scoring defense and a Texas offense that has looked mediocre the last few games. As a result, this is another low-scoring contest that winds up short of the total.
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