Texas State vs. Arkansas State, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC Texas State (3-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) will be trying to pick up their first conference win of the season when they visit Centennial Bank Stadium on Saturday afternoon to face Arkansas State (1-4, 0-1 Sun Belt) at 4 PM. ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Bobcats vs. Red Wolves prediction. When it comes to NCAAF selections, our College Football Picks are stellar.
The Bobcats are coming off a 35-3 win over Nicholls as 32.5-point favorites. The Red Wolves are coming off a 28-16 loss to Louisiana Monroe as 1.5-point underdogs.
Arkansas State and Texas State have split their last 10 meetings. The Bobcats won last season’s meeting, 41-9.
Texas State Going For Second Consecutive Win
The Bobcats bounced back from their loss to Arizona State with a win over FCS Nicholls in their last game. They beat Eastern Michigan 52-27 to open the season and UTSA 43-36 on Sept. 6. They are also coming off a bye this week.
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Texas State averages 36.3 points per game. They throw for 219.5 yards and rush for 221.5 yards per game.
Brad Jackson has completed 67 percent of his passes for 864 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. He also has 128 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Lincoln Pare leads the team with 61 carries for 363 yards and three touchdowns, while Beau Sparks leads the team with 28 carries for 370 yards and five touchdowns.
Texas State is giving up 25 points per game, which is 76th in the nation. They are giving up 218.3 passing yards and 211 rushing yards per game.
Arkansas State Trying To Snap Four-Game Losing Streak
The Red Wolves followed up their season-opening win over FCS SE Missouri with four straight losses, failing to cover the spread in three of those games. They will try to snap their losing streak and pick up their second win of the season when they play on Saturday. In their last game, they fell at UL Monroe 28-26 as Jaylen Raynor threw for 285 yards, but did not throw a TD pass and had a pick.
Arkansas State averages 21.8 points per game, which is 106th in the nation. They throw for 242 yards and rush for 112.8 yards per game.
Jaylen Raynor has completed 65 percent of his passes for 1,203 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions. He also has 104 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Devin Spencer leads the team with 39 carries for 188 yards and one touchdown, while Chauncy Cobb leads the team with 27 catches for 367 yards.
Arkansas State is giving up 32 points per game, which is 122nd in the country. They are giving up 264.3 passing yards and 229 rushing yards per game.
Texas State vs. Arkansas State Picks
Point Spread Pick for Texas State vs. Arkansas State
- Texas State Bobcats -13.5 (4 Units)
The Bobcats have won three of their four games, while the Red Wolves have lost four of their five games. Texas State has the advantage here because they have one of the best ground games in the country, averaging more than 220 yards per game, and they’re facing a defense that is giving up close to 230 rushing yards per game, so expect them to take advantage of Arkansas State’s poor run defense.
The Red Wolves won’t be as successful offensively because they don’t run the ball well and rely heavily on their passing game. With the Bobcats not having to worry about the Red Wolves running on them, they will be able to focus on stopping the pass. Go with Texas State to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Texas State vs. Arkansas State
- Over 64 (4 Units)
The Red Wolves played over the total in four of their last seven games, while the Bobcats played over the total in two of their last four games. Arkansas State averages 21.8 points per game. They throw the ball 56 percent of the time with the 76th-best passing attack in the country. They are facing a team that is 61st against the pass and is giving up 25 points per game. The Bobcats average 36.3 points per game. They run the ball 58 percent of the time with the 17th-best ground attack in the country. They are facing a team that is 127th against the run and is giving up 32 points per game. The Bobcats will do the heavy lifting, but expect these teams to score enough points to push the score over the total.
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