Texas State vs. Southern Miss, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 15, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Texas State Bobcats (3-6, 0-5 Sun Belt) pay a visit to Hattiesburg, Mississippi, and M. M. Roberts Stadium on Saturday for a Sun Belt Conference clash with the Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-2, 5-0 Sun Belt). Texas State lost to Louisiana 42-39 last time out and has lost each of its last five. The Bobcats are last in the West Division of the Sun Belt and must win each of their final three games to become bowl eligible. Southern Miss defeated Arkansas State 27-21 last time out and has won each of the last five. The Golden Eagles lead the West Division of the conference by one game over Troy with three remaining. Make sure to read this in-depth Texas State Bobcats vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles prediction. Your ultimate guide to NCAAF excitement—don’t miss our free picks for Texas State vs. Southern Miss prediction!
Texas State scores plenty, but gives up far too many
Last week, Texas State was involved in a postgame incident against Louisiana on Nov. 8. The Bobcats lost Tymere Jackson (2 games), Khamari Terrell (1 game), Justin DeLeon (1 game), Kyran Bourda (1 game), J.P. Deeter (1 game) and Devarrick Woods. Terrell is a starting corner who has 30 tackles on the season.
The Texas State Bobcats score an average of 34.7 points per game, which is 25th, but give up 34.8 points per game, which is 130th. Texas State averages 477.3 yards (11th) of total offense per game. The Bobcats are 15th in rushing yards and 31st in passing yards per game. The Texas State defense allows an average of 414.3 yards (114th) per game. The defense is 95th against the pass and 109th against the run.
Brad Jackson has done it all for the Texas State offense, throwing for 2,376 yards with 13 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 442 yards and 9 touchdowns. Lincoln Pare is the leading rusher with 737 yards and 10 TDs on the ground. Beau Sparks has 927 yards receiving with 7 TDs, while averaging 15.2 yards per reception. Linebacker Treylin Payne is the leading tackler with 81. The Texas State defense has made 19 quarterback sacks and intercepted five passes.
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Southern Miss is playing well on both sides of the line of scrimmage
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles score an average of 32.3 (45th) points per game and allow an average of 24.2 (66th) points per game. Southern Miss averages 412 yards of total offense per game, which is 49th. The Golden Eagles are 38th in passing yards and 75th in rushing yards per game. The Southern Miss defense allows an average of 389.0 yards per game, which is 90th. The Golden Eagles are 75th in passing yards allowed and 92nd in rushing yards allowed per game.
Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton has 2,187 yards passing with 19 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Jeffrey Pittman leads all rushers for Southern Miss with 494 yards and six touchdowns, while the leading receiver is Elijah Metcalf with 425 yards and one touchdown reception. Southern Miss has 14 touchdowns on the ground and 20 through the air. Linebacker Chris Jones is the leading tackler with 91. The Southern Miss defense has made 22 quarterback sacks and intercepted 20 passes.
Texas State vs. Southern Miss Pick
Spread Pick for Texas State vs. Southern Miss
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles -5 ( units)
The fight probably won't galvanize Texas State. Southern Miss has averaged 32.3 points per game this season while allowing an average of 24.2 points per game. The strength of the Southern Miss offense is its passing game, averaging 258.2 yards per game, but its running game is also solid, averaging 153.8 yards per game. The Texas State defense is porous, allowing 239 yards passing, which is 95th, and 175.3 yards rushing, which is 109th. Opponents are averaging 34.8 points per game against Texas State. The Bobcats have a strong offense that averages over 211 yards rushing and 265 yards passing, but face a solid Southern Miss defense that is 75th against the pass and 92nd against the run. Texas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games, and the Bobcats have covered the spread in just one of the last five games on the road. Southern Miss is 5-1 ATS in the last six games at home.
Over/Under Pick for Texas State vs. Southern Miss
- Over 65 (5 units)
This will be a shootout in Hattiesburg. Texas State averages 34.7 points per game, and Southern Miss averages 32.3 points per game. The Golden Eagles allow an average of 24.2 points per game, and the Bobcats allow an average of 34.8 points per game. The total has finished over in four of Texas State's last five games. The total has finished over in four of Southern Miss's last five games played during week 12 and in four of the Golden Eagles’ last six games when tagged as the favorite
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