Texas State vs. UTSA Prediction and Picks - September 6, 2025
The annual I-35 rivalry returns this Saturday as the Texas State Bobcats make the short trip to face the UTSA Roadrunners at the Alamodome. Check out our Texas State vs UTSA prediction.
These two schools are separated by just 50 miles, making this one of the most heated matchups in the state. UTSA has dominated the series, winning five of the six head-to-head meetings (2012, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2023). Texas State finally broke through in 2019 with a 40-19 victory last year.
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Bobcats offense sharp in opener
Texas State opened its season with a dominant 52-27 win over Eastern Michigan. Redshirt freshman quarterback Brad Jackson, a veteran transfer, shined in his first start, completing 18 of 26 passes for 214 yards and four touchdowns while adding 48 rushing yards.
As strong as Jackson’s debut was, the running game stole the show. The Bobcats piled up 392 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 39 carries. Lincoln Pare led the way with 167 yards and a score on 12 carries.
Overall, Texas State outgained Eastern Michigan 606–391 in total yards, went 7-for-10 on third downs, and converted its lone fourth-down attempt. Neither team committed a turnover.
Coming off a loss to Texas A&M
The Roadrunners had a tougher assignment in Week 1, falling to Texas A&M 42-24. Still, UTSA trailed just 21-7 midway through the third quarter before the Aggies pulled away with 21 unanswered points.
Quarterback Owen McCown, in his third season at UTSA after beginning his career at Colorado, completed 19 of 32 passes for 121 yards. Brandon Tennison also saw action, going 2-for-2 with a touchdown and an interception. McCown is coming off a strong 2024 campaign in which he threw for 3,424 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
The bright spot in the opener was running back Robert Henry Jr., who carried 16 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns. He accounted for most of UTSA’s 203 rushing yards.
Texas State vs. UTSA Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,778.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,716.00 |
| 3 |  David Hess | +1,326.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +1,323.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,071.00 |
Spread Pick for Texas State vs. UTSA Pick
- ATS Pick: UTSA -3.5 (3 units)
Texas State should feel confident after cruising past Eastern Michigan, but that was against a much weaker opponent. UTSA’s experience, home-field edge, and the sting of last week’s loss to Texas A&M make the Roadrunners the sharper play here. With McCown under center and plenty of talent in the backfield, I’ll back UTSA to cover at home.
- Total: Over 66 (4 units)
Both teams showcased explosive offenses in their openers. UTSA combined with Texas A&M for 66 total points, while Texas State and Eastern Michigan put up 79. Playing inside the Alamodome, where conditions favor offense, this matchup has shootout potential. With both teams able to strike through the air or on the ground, I expect plenty of fireworks.
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