Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Houston Cougars Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC A pair of Big 12 squads from the Lone Star State collide on the gridiron as the #11 Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to take on the Houston Cougars Saturday night and we have you covered with our Texas Tech vs. Houston prediction. Texas Tech comes off a bye last week. They drubbed #16 Utah 34-10 on the road in their previous contest, September 20, winning outright as a 3.5-point underdog. Houston edged Oregon State 27-24 in overtime on the road in their previous contest last Friday, failing to cover the line as a 12-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams as FBS opponents, the Cougars own an 18-16-1 advantage, though the Red Raiders have won six straight meetings, including a 49-28 home win in the most recent matchup on September 30, 2023. Read more about this Texas Tech vs. Houston prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Red Raiders Seeking 5-0 Start
Texas Tech is rested and ready for this one as they had a bye last week after dropping #16 Utah on the road two weeks ago. The Red Raiders are 4-0 on the season and 1-0 in Big 12 action entering this contest. Against Utah, Texas Tech led 7-0 after the opening quarter, 10-3 at the half and by that same margin after three quarters. The Red Raiders broke the game open with 24 fourth-quarter points to turn the game into a one-sided affair. Texas Tech rolled up a 484-283 edge in total offense, picked up 20 first downs while allowing 16, controlled the clock by a 32:15 to 27:45 margin and forced four turnovers while committing a pair in the contest.
The Red Raiders enter this contest 1st in the nation in passing offense with an average of 368.5 yards per game, while they are 35th in rushing offense by grinding out 204.5 yards per game on the ground. Texas Tech is 2nd in the FBS in scoring offense by averaging 52 points per contest, while they are 8th in scoring defense by allowing 11.3 points per game. Behren Morton has completed 69 of 100 passes for 1,065 yards with 11 touchdowns against three interceptions on the year. Will Hammond (31 of 41, 369 yards, four TD, INT, 169 rush yards, two TD) and Mitch Griffis (four of five, 40 yards, TD, 21 rushing yards) are next up on the depth chart. Cameron Dickey leads the team on the ground with 50 carries for 232 yards and six scores this season. Adam Hill (24 carries, 207 yards) and J’Koby Williams (39 carries, 201 yards, two TD) are secondary backs in the system. Terrance Carter Jr. leads the team in the passing game with 17 receptions for 243 yards and four touchdowns. Caleb Douglas (11 grabs, 226 yards, TD) and Coy Eakin (14 catches, 260 yards, three TD), Williams (13 catches, 221 yards, TD), and Reggie Virgil (17 receptions, 207 yards, four TD) are also over 200 receiving yards this season. Stone Harrington is 15 of 15 on extra point attempts and four of four on field goal attempts with a long of 58 this year. Upton Bellenfant is eight of nine on extra points and three of three on field goals with a long of 29. Ian Hershey is two of two on extra points and has not attempted a field goal this season.
Wide receiver Roy Alexander, cornerback Tarrion Grant and offensive lineman Holton Hendrix are each expected to miss this game. Receiver Tristan Gentry is doubtful, while defensive lineman E’Maurion Banks and offensive lineman Hunter Zambrano are each questionable for this contest.
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Houston Looking to Continue Surprising Start
Houston was a team that went 4-8 each of the last two seasons. They’ve been a pleasant surprise under second-year coach Willie Fritz, downing Oregon State in overtime last week to remain unbeaten on the year. The Cougars enter this game 4-0 overall and 1-0 in Big 12 play. Against Oregon State, Houston trailed 7-0 after the opening quarter, 14-10 at the half and 24-10 with 12:34 remaining before scoring twice in the final six minutes of regulation to knot the score. In overtime, Houston kicked a field goal and stifled the Oregon State drive to pick up the win. The Cougars were beaten 390-352 in total offense, gave up 22 first downs while recording 17, lost time of possession by a 35:23 to 24:37 margin and committed the game’s lone turnover, yet managed to come up with the victory.
On the season, Houston stands 87th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 208 yards per game through the air on the year. The Cougars are 60th of the 136 FBS teams to see action in rushing offense as they average 171.5 yards per contest. Houston is 60th in scoring offense with 31.2 points per game, while they stand 14th in the country in scoring defense by allowing 13.2 points per contest. Conner Weigman is 65 of 106 passing for 839 yards with six touchdowns and one interception while ranking second on the team with 141 rushing yards plus four scores. Zeon Chriss is one of three for two yards plus seven rushing yards as the backup quarterback. Dean Connors leads the run game with 67 carries for 324 yards and three scores on the year. Stacy Sneed (27 carries, 113 yards) and DJ Butler (12 carries, 57 yards) are the next backups in the system. Tanner Koziol leads the team with 23 receptions for 234 yards and two scores on the season. Stephon Johnson (eight catches, 235 yards, two TD) and Amare Thomas (14 grabs, 214 yards, TD) are the only other players with more than 60 receiving yards on the season. Ethan Sanchez is 14 of 14 on extra point attempts and nine of 11 on field goal attempts with a long of 52 this season.
Running back Re’Shaun Sanford II, tackle David Ndukwe and tight end Jayden York are done for the year. Wide receiver Devan Williams, defensive back Kenzy West, defensive linemen Reshad Sterling and Quindario Lee, tight end Traville Frederick Jr. and wide receiver Anthony Gangi Jr. are also out for this contest.
Texas Tech vs. Houston Prediction
Spread Pick for Texas Tech vs. Houston
- Texas Tech -11 (4 units)
In a matchup of unbeatens, we’re rolling with the visitors in this contest. Texas Tech is rested after the bye, giving them two weeks to prepare for this contest. The Red Raiders already prevailed on the road in a hostile environment against a good team as they put the boots to Utah even after Morton was knocked out with a neck sprain. Houston is 4-0 but the best team they’ve faced is a Colorado squad that sits 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the Big 12 on the year. Both teams faced Oregon State, with Texas Tech rolling to a 45-14 home win while Houston had to rally to win in Corvallis in overtime. The Red Raiders are an explosive offensive team and defensively, they force turnovers as well. Take Texas Tech to remain unbeaten as they pick up a road win in this contest.
Over/Under Pick for Texas Tech vs. Houston
- Under 51.5 (4 units)
While we have a pair of explosive offensive teams here, the fact remains that both sides are capable defensively as well. Texas Tech has split its four games in relation to the total, even though they are second in the nation in scoring offense. That includes their lone road game of the season in their win over Utah two weeks ago. Houston has posted three straight overs, but the number has yet to be higher than 48 points in any of their contests. With a pair of teams that have been sound defensively and who are good in the takeaway/giveaway department, look for this to be a little tougher for points to come by than what one might expect. Lean to the under in this game as a result.
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