Toledo Rockets vs. Louisville Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Use Code WWWC We’re in the heart of bowl season and it brings us a clash between the MAC and the ACC when the Toledo Rockets travel to face the Louisville Cardinals Tuesday afternoon in the Boca Raton Bowl and we have you covered with our Toledo vs. Louisville prediction. Toledo closed their regular season slate with a 21-3 road win over Central Michigan in their previous contest November 29, covering the line as a 10.5-point favorite. Louisville clobbered Kentucky 41-0 in their regular season finale November 29, winning outright as a one-point underdog, in their previous game. In the all-time series between the teams, the Cardinals own a 5-3 advantage, including a 31-6 home win in the most recent meeting September 12, 1981. Read more about this Toledo vs. Louisville prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Toledo Trying to Close Season on Positive Note
Toledo closed the regular season with four straight wins to finish strong after sitting 4-4 eight games into the year. The Rockets enter this game 8-4 overall and finished 6-2 in the MAC this season. Against Central Michigan, Toledo trailed 3-0 at the half and remained down by that margin late into the third quarter before taking the lead on a 57-yard touchdown pass from Kalieb Osborne to Chip Trayanum with 10 seconds remaining in the stanza. The Rockets led the rest of the way, scoring a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to put the game away. Toledo owned a 411-323 advantage in total offense and picked up 18 first downs while allowing 15 in a game where both teams turned the ball over once. The Rockets were beaten 31:26 to 28:34 in time of possession in the win. Coach Jason Candle was hired by UConn so Robert Weiner will be the interim coach here. Defensive coordinator/LB coach Vince Kehres (Syracuse), co-defensive coordinator/S coach Ross Watson (Iowa State) and special teams coordinator Stanton Weber (Kansas State) also took new gigs.
On the year, the Rockets are 53rd in the nation in passing offense with 244 yards per contest while they are 44th in rushing offense with 177.8 yards per game. Toledo is 38th in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up 31.6 points per contest and 4th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 12.2 points per contest this season. Tucker Gleason is 207 of 320 passing for 2,515 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions while adding 144 yards plus four scores on the ground. John Allan Richter (17 of 25, 153 yards, three TD, INT, 15 rush yards) and Kalieb Osborne (15 of 24, 260 yards, two TD, 205 rush yards, two TD) have seen limited action. Chip Trayanum leads the team in the run game with 166 carries for 950 yards and 11 scores this season. Kenji Christian (99 carries, 501 yards, four TD) and Willie Shaw III (15 carries, 85 yards) are in the mix as well. Junior Vandeross III leads the team with 75 catches for 947 yards and 11 scores this season. Javon Brown (eight receptions, 156 yards, TD), Jacob Petersen (22 grabs, 275 yards, two TD), Trayvon Rudolph (38 catches, 423 yards, two TD) and Trayanum (19 receptions, 207 yards, two TD) are good targets in the passing game. Dylan Cunanan is 48 of 48 on extra point attempts and eight of 11 on field goal attempts with a long of 46 on the year. Anthony Ruggles is one of one on extra point attempts and has not attempted a field goal this season.
Key Injury Report for Toledo:
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- Defensive end Malachi Davis (35 tackles, 5.5 sacks, FF) is in the transfer portal.
- Safety Braden Awls (52 tackles, four pass defenses, five INT, FF) is in the transfer portal.
- Linebacker Chris D'Appolonia (68 tackles, sack, FF) is in the transfer portal.
- Quarterback Tucker Gleason (undisclosed) is doubtful.
Cardinals Seeking to Add Bowl Win to Resume
Louisville snapped a three-game slide by clobbering Kentucky in their regular season finale. The Cardinals enter this game 8-4 overall and stand 4-4 in ACC play. Against Kentucky, Louisville dominated the contest, leading 7-0 after the opening quarter, 20-0 at the half and 27-0 after three quarters as they rolled to the victory. The Cardinals piled up a 440-140 advantage in total offense, rolled up a 26-10 edge in first downs, dominated time of possession by a 36:28 to 23:32 margin and forced the game’s two turnovers. Louisville’s defense didn’t let Kentucky deeper than the Cardinals’ 31-yard in the shutout win.
The Cardinals enter this contest averaging 226.3 yards per contest through the air (67th in the nation) and 162.6 yards per game (65th) on the ground this season. Louisville is 46th in the FBS by averaging 30.2 points per contest while the team is 36th in scoring defense by giving up 21.1 points per game. Miller Moss is 228 of 356 passing for 2,526 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions plus nine rushing scores. Brady Allen (eight of 12, 75 yards, TD, two INT) and Deuce Adams (15 of 21, 112 yards, 33 rush yards) are next up on the depth chart. Isaac Brown leads the run game with 91 carries for 782 yards and five scores. Keyjuan Brown (81 carries, 592 yards, six TD), Braxton Jennings (37 carries, 200 yards, TD) and Duke Watson (49 carries, 158 yards, TD) are also in the mix. Chris Bell leads the Cardinals with 72 receptions for 917 yards and six scores. Caullin Lacy (54 catches, 547 yards, two TD), Dacari Collins (13 grabs, 219 yards, TD) and Jaleel Skinner (20 receptions, 199 yards, two TD) are each over the 175-yard mark in receiving yards. Cooper Ranvier is 36 of 37 on extra point attempts and 21 of 24 on field goal attempts with a long of 51 this year. Nick Keller is one of two on extra points and two of four on field goal attempts with a long of 57 on the season.
Key Injury Report for Louisville:
- Wide receiver Chris Bell (knee) is out.
- Running back Isaac Brown (undisclosed) is questionable.
- Running back Keyjuan Brown (undisclosed) is questionable.
- Running back Duke Watson (undisclosed) is questionable.
- Defensive tackle Rene Konga (29 tackles, 1.5 sacks, five pass defenses) is in the transfer portal.
- Defensive end Wesley Bailey (39 tackles, six sacks) is in the transfer portal.
Toledo vs. Louisville Prediction
Spread Pick for Toledo vs. Louisville
- Toledo -6.5 (4 units)
Toledo has been tough defensively but as been the trend with successful mid-major programs, power conference schools came calling. The Rockets lost their head coach, in addition to their co-defensive coordinators and their special teams coordinator. Their starting quarterback is doubtful and it leaves the Rockets in a bit of disarray. Louisville will be missing a pair of their starting defensive linemen but Moss will be running the offense. Coach Jeff Brohm is hopeful that at least one of their running backs will be able to take the field but as it stands, Louisville is in better shape here to come up with the win.
Over/Under Pick for Toledo vs. Louisville
Under 45 (4 units)
Toledo has split their 12 games in relation to the number this season. The Rockets stayed under the number in five of their six games away from home on the year. Louisville has stayed under the number in seven of their 12 games in relation to the total this season. The Cardinals have scored at least 24 points in 10 games this season and they have hung at least 26 points in nine of their 12 games. Toledo has a top-five scoring defense and Louisville is a solid defensive squad themselves. Points are likely hard to come by in this contest and with the Rockets missing a ton of pieces, this game winds up under the number.
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