Toledo vs. Bowling Green Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s another key MAC game between Ohio rivals on Saturday, Oct. 11. Read our Miami (OH) vs Akron prediction along with our other NCAAF Betting Picks! The Battle of I-75 is one of the top rivalries in small school college football. The series has been played since 1919. The Rockets are 3-2 this season and they are coming off of a big win over Akron. Bowling Green is 2-3 with back-to-back losses to Louisville and Ohio. The series has been split 3-3 in the last six games. Toledo has won six of the last seven games at Bowling Green dating back to 2009. These two teams will meet with kick-off set for 12 P.M. EST.
Toledo winless on the road
Toledo is 3-2 overall this season. The Rockets are undefeated when playing at home and winless when going on the road. They have road losses to Kentucky by 8-points and a 14-13 road loss to Western Michigan. They secured big back-to-back home wins over Western Kentucky and Morgan State.
In their last game, Toledo defeated Akron 45-3 in their last game on Saturday, Sept. 27. It was an easy win for the Rockets, who accumulated 538 yards of offense. Quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for 237 yards on 16-for-19 passing and three touchdowns. The Rockets rushed for 245 yards as a team with no individual rushing for more than 75 yards.
Gleason has thrown for 925 yards and has completed 63% of his throws. He has thrown seven touchdowns and three picks. Chip Trayanum, the Ohio State and Kentucky transfer, leads the running back room with 476 yards on the ground and six touchdowns.
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On defense, Toledo is led in tackles with 34 by linebacker K’Von Sherman. He has seven more tackles than anyone else on the team. Malachi Davis has a team-high 2.5 sacks, too. The defense has forced eight turnovers this season.
Toledo is averaging 35.8 points per game, placing them 37th. They are the 21st-ranked rushing offense as they are accumulating 213.8 yards per game. The Rockets are throwing for 230 passing yards per gam,e placing them 69th.
On defense, Toledo is allowing 12.4 points per game which ranks ninth best. They are the sixth-best pass defense, giving up 131.8 yards per game. The Rockets are allowing 94.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 23rd.
Toledo is 4-1 against the spread this season. They are 3-1 against the spread when they have been favored. The Rockets are 1-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. They are also 2-1 against the spread as a double-digit favorite. The under is 3-2 when Toledo has played. The under is 2-0 when Toledo has played on the road. The under is 3-0 when the total has been set at 50 or less.
Bowling Green undefeated at home this season
Bowling Green is 2-3 overall this season. They started the season strong with wins over Lafayette and Liberty along with a 14-point loss to Cincinnati. But it’s been a tough two-week stretch with back-to-back losses to Louisville and Ohio.
In their last game, the Falcons lost 35-20 to Ohio on the road on Saturday, Sept. 27. Bowling Green never led in the game, but they kept it close throughout. Turnovers were a key difference with the Falcons turning the ball over four times. Quarterback Drew Pyne threw for 170 yards on 19-for-29 passing, along with three picks and a touchdown. The rushing attack was led by running back Chris McMillian with 89 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown.
Pyne is a veteran quarterback who has made stops at Notre Dame, Arizona State and Missouri. He’s in his first and last year with Bowling Green and has 830 passing yards this season. He’s completed 64% of his throws along with four touchdowns and five picks. Three different running backs have over 180 yards rushing on the year with McMillian leading the team with 226 yards and two touchdowns.
On defense, Bowling Green is led in tackles by linebacker Gideon Lampron with 44, nine more tackles than anyone else on the team. Linebacker Myles Bradley has a team-high three sacks this season, too. The Falcons have forced nine turnovers with a different player securing a takeaway each time.
“Excited about playing in this rivalry game against Toledo,” first year Bowling Green head coach Eddie George said. “Been a fan of college football pretty much all my life and this one here is definitely in the top five of rivalry games. Of course, in my time at Ohio State, I played ‘the team up north,’ and I sold hot chocolate at the Army-Navy game. This one here ranks right up there with that. So, to have had the opportunity to coach in this game is an honor. Thrilled to compete against ‘that team up north.’”
Bowling Green is averaging 21.2 points per game, which ranks 109th. They are the 121st-ranked passing offense, averaging 166 yards per game. The Falcons are rushing for 156.6 yards per game on the ground which ranks 68th.
On defense, Bowling Green is allowing 25.8 points per game, which places them 85th. They are the 86th ranked pass defense giving up 233.2 yards per game. The Falcons are allowing 134.8 rush yards, which ranks 60th.
Bowling Green is 3-2 against the spread this season. They are 1-1 against the spread when they have played at home. The Falcons are 3-1 against the spread as underdogs. They are also 2-0 against the spread as doubled-digit underdogs. The over is 3-2 when Bowling Green has played this season. The under is 2-0 when Bowling Green has played at home.
Toledo vs Bowling Green Pick
Toledo vs Bowling Green Spread Pick
Both teams will be fresh for the annual rivalry game as they enjoyed their bye week last week. The Falcons have been playing better that season under first-year head coach Eddie George, but they have suffered back-to-back losses with both of them being on the road. They have looked their best when playing at home. Bowling Green has a stand-out home win over Liberty on the books. They will be relying on their veteran quarterback, Drew Pyle to lead the charge. The former Notre Dame quarterback has been solid this season, but he will need his experience to lead an upset win. The Falcons have a defense that can help, as they are the 60th-ranked rush defense.
The rush defense will be key against a Toledo team that ranks 21st in rush yards per game. Toledo can also throw the ball, but they win games when they succeed in rushing the football. I think they will be able to break off a long rush or two by former Ohio State and Kentucky running back Chip Trayanum, but Bowling Green will be determined to keep the trophy at home. The Falcons did win last year’s game in Toledo by 15 points. Expect another close rivalry game with Bowling Green’s rush defense, along with Pyle making plays for the home team.
Take Bowling Green to cover.
Toledo vs Bowling Green Over/Under Pick
Toledo’s offense has been great this season. They are averaging over 35 points per game, but they will be slowed down by a much-improved Bowling Green defense that ranks 60th in rush defense. Slow, methodical drives will be key in this game as the clock ticks for two teams that like to run the ball. A low-scoring game should be expected between the two rivals. The under is 2-0 when Bowling Green has played at home. The under is 3-0 when the total has been set at 50 or less for Toledo games this season, too.
Take the under on Saturday.
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