Troy Trojans vs. Texas State Bobcats Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s a battle of programs from the Sun Belt on the gridiron as a pair of teams looking to pick up a victory collide in the Lone Star State as the Troy Trojans face the Texas State Bobcats Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Troy vs. Texas State prediction. Troy downed South Alabama 31-24 in overtime at home in their previous contest last Saturday, winning outright as a one-point underdog. Texas State fell 31-30 on the road to Arkansas State in their previous contest, losing outright as a 13.5-point favorite, last Saturday. In the all-time series between the teams, the Trojans own a 13-2 advantage, but it was the Bobcats picking up a 38-17 road win in the most recent matchup on October 3, 2024. Read more about this Troy vs. Texas State prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Troy Seeking Third Straight Win
Troy won their second straight game as they took down South Alabama in a battle of Yellowhammer State rivals last week. The Trojans improved to 3-2 overall and stand 1-0 in the Sun Belt on the season. Against South Alabama, neither team led by more than seven in the contest. Troy gave up the tying score with 1:54 remaining in regulation, took the lead in overtime and stopped South Alabama on downs on the ensuing possession to earn the victory. The Trojans held a 420-369 advantage in total offense, picked up 20 first downs while allowing 18, and was edged 30:11 to 29:49 in time of possession. Troy also overcame committing the game’s two turnovers to earn the win.
On the season, the Trojans are 120th in the country in passing offense with an average of 168.8 yards per game through the air and 72nd in the country in rushing offense with 154 yards per contest on the ground. Troy is 103rd in the FBS in scoring offense with 22.6 points per game, while they are 67th in the nation in scoring defense by allowing an average of 23.2 points per contest. Goose Crowder (35 of 58, 374 yards, four TD, three INT, 53 rush yards, TD), Tucker Kilcrease (37 of 74, 416 yards, three TD, two INT, 134 rush yards, two TD) and Ui Ale (five of 10, 54 yards, three rush yards) have each seen work under center. Tae Meadows leads the team on the ground with 75 carries for 416 yards and three touchdowns this season. Jordan Lovett (36 carries, 149 yards) is the second back in the system. Roman Mothershod is the team’s top receiving threat with 15 catches for 168 yards and a score on the year. Tray Taylor (11 receptions, 191 yards, two TD), RaRa Thomas (11 grabs, 150 yards, two TD) and DJ Epps (10 catches, 107 yards, TD) each have over 100 yards receiving this season. Scott Taylor Renfroe is 14 of 15 on extra point attempts and three of four on field goal tries with a long of 37 this season.
Crowder (shoulder) was injured against South Alabama. He and receiver Mojo Dortch (undisclosed) are both questionable here. Running back Trey Cooley (knee) is done for the season.
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Bobcats Hoping to Rebound at Home
Texas State fell for the second time in three games as they fell on the road against Arkansas State in their previous game. The Bobcats fell to 3-2 overall and 0-1 in the Sun Belt on the season as they try to rebound at home. Against Arkansas State, Texas State was even at seven after the opening quarter, at 10 at the half, and after three quarters. In a wild, back-and-forth final quarter, the teams combined for six touchdowns. The Bobcats took the lead with a minute to go but missed the extra point, only to give up a score with seven seconds remaining. Arkansas State kicked the extra point and walked out with the win. Texas State owned a 521-398 advantage in total offense, held a 23-22 edge in first downs and had a 30:13 to 29:47 margin in time of possession in the game. The missed extra point and committing the game’s lone turnover proved costly.
The Bobcats enter this contest 78th in the FBS in passing offense as they average 222 yards per game through the air. Texas State stands 14th in the nation in rushing offense as they average 235 yards per game this season on the ground. The Bobcats are 41st in the country in scoring offense by putting up 35 points per game. Texas State is 89th in the country in scoring defense, as they allow an average of 26.2 points per game. Brad Jackson is 86 of 128 passing for 1,094 yards with seven touchdowns against one interception while adding 259 yards plus six scores on the ground. Keldric Luster (one of three, 14 yards,14 rush yards) is the backup. Lincoln Pare leads the Bobcats on the ground with 82 carries for 468 yards and five touchdowns this season. Jaylen Jenkins (28 carries, 167 yards, two TD), Greg Burrell (28 carries, 167 yards, two TD,) and Torrance Burgess Jr. (20 carries, 95 yards, TD) are next up on the depth chart. Beau Sparks leads the team with 31 receptions for 428 yards and five scores this season. Chris Dawn Jr. (13 grabs, 206 yards), Kylen Evans (11 catches, 145 yards, TD) and Pare (11 receptions, 113 yards) are the only other players with more than 100 receiving yards on the year. Tyler Robles has drilled 20 of 21 extra point attempts and five of six field goal attempts with a long of 50 on the year.
Burgess Jr. (undisclosed) and receiver Tyrin Smith (hamstring) are both questionable here.
Troy vs. Texas State Pick
Spread Pick for Troy vs. Texas State
- Troy +9.5 (4 units)
Texas State had their chances but special teams and defensive letdowns proved to be too much for them to overcome. The Bobcats are at home here, where they are 2-0 on the season, but beating Nicholls and Eastern Michigan isn’t going to move the needle much. Troy has won back-to-back games around a bye despite having issues with quarterback play. The Trojans are better on the defensive side of the ball, and that should keep them in striking distance. Texas State should prevail at home, but it’s a tighter game than might be expected here. Take the points and the Trojans in this contest.
Over/Under Pick for Troy vs. Texas State
- Under 54.5 (4 units)
Both teams come into this game having stayed under the total in three of their five games this season. Troy stayed under the total in both their road games this season, seeing combined totals of 43 (at Clemson) and 38 (at Buffalo) points in those games. Each of those contests fell at least six points short of the number. Texas State opened with back-to-back overs but their last three games have ended up short of the number. Troy isn’t an offensive powerhouse and it will be tough to see them putting up a ton of points, even against a mediocre Texas State defense. Lean toward the under in this contest as a result.
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