Troy vs. JMU Picks and Prediction for Friday, December 5, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s the Sun Belt title game on the gridiron as a pair of teams looking to pick up a victory collide in the Old Dominion as the Troy Trojans face the #25 James Madison Dukes on Friday night and we have you covered with our Troy vs. James Madison prediction. Troy downed Southern Miss 28-18 on the road in their previous contest last Saturday, winning outright as a seven-point underdog. James Madison routed Coastal Carolina 59-10 on the road in their previous contest, covering the line as a 23.5-point favorite, last Saturday. In the all-time series between the teams, the Dukes own a 2-1 advantage, including a 16-14 road win in the most recent matchup on September 16, 2023. Read more about this Troy vs. James Madison prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Troy Trying to Earn Sun Belt Title
Troy closed the regular season with two straight wins, including a triumph over Southern Miss, to claim the Sun Belt West Division title. The Trojans improved to 8-4 overall and 6-2 in the Sun Belt, finishing one game against Southern Miss for the West Division title. Against Southern Miss, Troy took a 14-3 halftime advantage after a scoreless opening quarter. The Trojans never let the Golden Eagles closer than three the rest of the way as they had an answer each time in the second half to earn the win. Troy owned a 428-304 advantage in total offense, picked up 22 first downs while allowing 20 and owned a 32:30 to 27:30 margin in time of possession in the game. Both teams turned the ball over once in the contest.
On the season, the Trojans are 83rd in the country in passing offense with an average of 216.4 yards per game through the air and 121st in the country in rushing offense with 109.2 yards per contest on the ground. Troy is 86th in the FBS in scoring offense with 25.2 points per game, while they are 63rd in the nation in scoring defense by allowing an average of 23.9 points per contest. Goose Crowder (97 of 156, 1118 yards, 11 TD, five INT, 37 rush yards, TD), Tucker Kilcrease (117 of 194, 1414 yards, nine TD, four INT, 131 rush yards, five TD) and Ui Ale (five of 10, 54 yards, three rush yards) have each seen work under center. Tae Meadows leads the team on the ground with 152 carries for 685 yards and five touchdowns this season. Jordan Lovett (79 carries, 311 yards, two TD) is the second back in the system. Roman Mothershod is one of the team’s top receiving threat with 25 catches for 259 yards and a score on the year. Tray Taylor (28 receptions, 478 yards, three TD), RaRa Thomas (31 grabs, 495 yards, five TD), tight end Ethan Conner (26 catches, 362 yards, three TD), Peyton Higgins (32 receptions, 253 yards, TD) and DJ Epps (40 catches, 430 yards, five TD) each have over 250 yards receiving this season. Scott Taylor Renfroe is 36 of 37 on extra point attempts and nine of 12 on field goal tries with a long of 47 this season. Paddy McAllister has not attempted an extra point and hit one of two field goal attempts with a long of 53 on the year.
Key Injury Report for Troy:
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- No Key Injuries
Dukes Seek to Run Win Streak to 11
James Madison won their 10th straight game by trouncing Coastal Carolina on the road in their regular-season finale last week. The Dukes improved to 11-1 on the year and stand 8-0 in the Sun Belt, winning the East Division title by two games over Old Dominion. Against Coastal Carolina, James Madison bolted to a 17-0 lead after the opening quarter and 20-0 in the second quarter to take control of the game. The Dukes were up 20-10 at the half before outscoring the Chanticleers 39-0 in the second half to win going away. James Madison piled up a 505-170 advantage in total offense, picked up 24 first downs while allowing 10, and controlled the clock by a 36:04 to 23:56 margin. Both teams turned the ball over once, with the Dukes scoring on a pick-six. Coach Bob Chesney is expected to finalize a five-year deal with UCLA though he will stay with the team through this game and a potential CFP run should the Dukes make the field.
On the year, the Dukes are 88th in passing offense as they average 211.7 yards per contest, while they are 6th in rushing offense with 239.8 yards per game. James Madison is 10th in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up an average of 37.8 points per game, while they are 10th in scoring defense by allowing 16 points per game this year. Alonza Barnett III is 183 of 297 passing for 2,440 yards with 20 touchdowns against seven interceptions while ranking second on the team with 59 yards and two scores on the ground. Matthew Sluka (eight of 11, 100 yards, three TD, two INT, 239 rush yards, three TD) is the backup. Wayne Knight leads the run game with 169 carries for 1,051 yards and eight scores. Jordan Fuller (82 carries, 415 yards, five TD), Jobi Malary (35 carries, 318 yards, four TD), and George Pettaway (33 carries, 193 yards) are also effective when they tote the rock. When the Dukes go to the air, Knight leads the team with 35 receptions for 368 yards and a score. Landon Ellis (32 catches, team-high 532 yards, five TD), Nick DeGennaro (21 grabs, 386 yards, four TD), Jaylan Sanchez (26 receptions, 349 yards, TD,) and Braeden Wisloski (18 grabs, 275 yards, three TD) are each over 250 receiving yards this season. Noe Ruelas has connected on 59 of 59 extra point attempts and 11 of 15 field goal attempts with a long of 47 this season.
Key Injury Report for JMU:
- Defensive lineman Immanuel Bush (undisclosed) is questionable. (26 tackles, three sacks)
- Running back Jordan Fuller (undisclosed) is questionable.
Troy vs. James Madison Pick
Spread Pick for Troy vs. JMU
- JMU -22.5 (4 units)
Sure, it’s a big line but take a look at what the Dukes have done this season. Their lone loss was a 28-14 setback to Louisville on the road back in mid-September. Seven of their eight conference wins came by double figures, with five of those coming by at least three touchdowns. James Madison is in the top 10 in the FBS in both scoring offense and scoring defense this season. In their six home games this season, their lone single-digit win came over Washington State. Troy is 4-2 on the road, though they were shellacked 33-0 by an Old Dominion team that James Madison hung 63 on back in mid-October. The Trojans struggle offensively and James Madison picks up the win here to give Chesney a shot at one more marquee game with the program.
Over/Under Pick for Troy vs. JMU
- Under 47.5 (4 units)
Troy enters this game having stayed under the total in seven of their 12 games on the season. On the road this season, the Trojans have stayed under the total in four of their six contests. They come in off with four straight unders entering this contest. James Madison has split their 12 games in relation to the total this season. The Dukes split their six home games in relation to the total this season. James Madison scored at least 24 points in each of their home games, scoring at least 35 points in four of those contests. The Dukes held four of their six opponents at home to 14 points or less. This game has the makings of a 34-10 type of game, keeping this game under the total.
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