Tulsa vs. East Carolina Picks and Prediction, Thursday, October 16, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s a mid-week American Athletic Association clash on Thursday, Oct. 16. Read our Tulsa vs East Carolina prediction along with our other NCAAF Betting Picks! Tulsa is 2-4 and they are coming off of their bye week. Prior to their off time, they lost big to Memphis. They have elected to start their freshman quarterback this week on the road. East Carolina is 3-3 and had a chance against Tulane on the road, but they couldn’t find the stops in the end for a big win. The Pirates do have one of the best passing attacks in college football. These two teams will meet with kick-off set for 7:30 P.M. EST.
Tulsa set to start freshman quarterback fresh off bye week
Tulsa is 2-4 overall this season. The Hurricanes have secured wins over Abilene Christian and Oklahoma State along with defeats to New Mexico State and Navy. After a 2-2 start, the Hurricanes have lost back-to-back games. The team is coming off of its bye week before this matchup against East Carolina.
In their last game, Tulsa lost 45-7 to Memphis on the road on Saturday, Oct. 4. Tulsa struggled throughout the game and could only muster 246 yards of offense compared to Memphis’ 457 yards. Tulsa turned the ball over four times in the loss, along with going 4-for-14 on third down.
Quarterback Kirk Francis threw for 175 yards on 20-for-34 passing. He tossed a touchdown and finished with three interceptions in the defeat. The rushing attack struggled as they went for just 71 yards on 24 carries, averaging 3.0 yards per carry.
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After Francis’ poor start last week, Tulsa announced earlier this week that Baylor Hayes will get the start against ECU and for the rest of the year. Hayes has thrown for 787 yards and has completed 61% of his passes. He has also thrown four touchdowns and three picks. The freshman has made four appearances this season which included the team’s win over Oklahoma State.
"He has that Baker Mayfield about him. He is very competitive and talks smack. He is a young stud, and I think he will be a great player.” Tulsa head coach Tre Lamb said. "He knows my offense, and he knows what we do well. I will not put as much volume on him, and we need to make sure he is protected. He brings some athleticism to the position that Kirk doesn't have.”
On defense, Tulsa is led in tackles by linebacker Ray Coney. He has 64 total tackles, with the second-best tackler being Lento Smith Jr. with 37. Defensive lineman J’Dan Burnett has been great this season with a team-high six sacks. Corner Elijah Green has been a lockdown player, too. He has five total interceptions, while the entire defense has forced eight total turnovers.
Tulsa is averaging 18.7 points per game, which ranks 120th in the nation. They are the 76th rushing offense, going for 152 yards per game on the ground. The Hurricanes are throwing for 216.3 passing yards per game, placing them 82nd.
On defense, the Hurricanes are allowing 26.3 points per game, which ranks 83rd. They are the 52nd-ranked passing defense, giving up 181.2 rush yards per game. Tulsa is allowing 181.2 rush yards per game, placing them 114th.
Tulsa is 2-4 against the spread this season. They are 1-3 against the spread when they have been underdogs. The Hurricanes are 1-2 against the spread when they have played on the road. They are also 0-3 against the spread versus conference foes. The under is 5-1 when Tulsa has played this season. The under is 3-0 when playing on the road. The under is 3-0 when the total has been set at 54 or higher.
East Carolina close to taking down Tulane
East Carolina is 3-3 this season. The Pirates are 1-1 in American Athletic Conference play. Four different teams in the league remain undefeated. The Pirates have wins over Campbell, Coastal Carolina and Army this season. They have two Power-4 defeats to NC State and BYU.
In their last game, the Pirates lost 26-19 on the road to Tulane on Thursday, October. 9. It was a strong first half for Tulane as they led 12-0 at halftime. But ECU fired back with 16 unanswered points in the third quarter. Tulane scored an early touchdown in the fourth quarter before ECU tied the game 19-19. With 35 seconds left, Tulane won the game with a late touchdown pass to seal the win.
ECU quarterback Katin Houser threw for 180 yards on 19-for-30 passing and a touchdown. The offense rushed for 160 yards with Marlon Gunn Jr. leading the team with 52 yards. ECU won the turnover battle which helped them stay in the game, but they couldn’t get the stops late in the game to win.
"I thought defensively, we played some good red zone defense, holding them to the field goals. I always tell the defense, if you just hold them to field goals throughout the game, you got a chance to win the ball game,” East Carolina head coach Blake Harrell said. “Thought we did that in the first half, and we didn't let it get away from us, which we certainly could have in the first half. And offensively just couldn't get the run game going. We took some negative plays in there, took a few sacks in there, and just hard to dig out of that, a good team, a good defense, in Tulane. And, I think the field position really was key in the first half.”
Houser has thrown for 1,689 yards and has completed 68% of his passes. He has thrown eight touchdowns and four interceptions on the year. London Montgomery has been a key running back for the team with a team-high 240 yards and two touchdowns. The wide receiver has a plethora of different options with four different wideouts with at least 200 yards total.
On defense, Ja’Marley Riddle leads the team with 36 total tackles. Jasiyah Robinson has a team-high two sacks, with the roster holding a team total 12 sacks. The defense has also forced 10 turnovers on the season.
ECU is averaging 28.5 points per game, which ranks 71st in the nation. They rank 20th in passing offense, going for 292.5 pass yards per game. The Pirates also rank 86th in rush yards as they go for 144.2 yards per game on the ground.
On defense, ECU is allowing 15.5 points per game, which ranks 15th best. They are the 36th-best rush defense, allowing 114.2 yards per game on the ground. The Pirates are also the 60th ranked pass defense giving up 215.7 yards.
East Carolina is 4-2 against the spread this season. They are 2-1 against the spread when they have played at home. The Pirates are 3-0 against the spread as a favorite. The under is 5-1 when ECU has played this season. The under is 3-0 when the total has been set at 54 or lower.
Tulsa vs East Carolina Picks
Tulsa vs East Carolina Spread Pick
- East Carolina -17 (5 units)
The Pirates showed last week that they can contend with one of the top teams in the conference. They almost came away with a big road win. But, they are just a little off the pace and a big win this week could get them closer to bowl eligibility. It’s down to their quarterback, Katin Houser, who has ECU ranked 20th in passing offense. The Pirates can move the ball quickly with a plethora of receiving options. It’s what makes their team dangerous and will allow for a big win this week against Tulsa.
The Golden Hurricanes are one of the bottom feeders in the league at the moment. They have bounced from quarterback to quarterback and are settling with their freshman signal caller after their bye week. Tulsa was dominated by Memphis in their last game. The offense turned the ball over, they couldn’t move the chains on third down and their defense was hardly able to slow Memphis down. Tulsa ranks 114th in pass defense. ECU is going to dominate in that area of the game, while the Pirates are also the 15th-best defensive scoring team. Tulsa relies on the run, and ECU will have an answer for that with their 36th-ranked rush defense. ECU is also 3-0 against the spread as a favorite this year.
Take ECU to cover.
Tulsa vs East Carolina Over/Under Pick
- Under 54 (5 units)
East Carolina’s defense has been very underrated this season. They are allowing an average of 15.5 points per game and they rank 36th in rush defense. They will stop Tulsa often in this game, and it will become a field position game at some points. East Carolina’s offense will thrive for a big win, but they will turn to their rushing attack to bleed the clock in the second half. Expect a low-scoring game thanks to East Carolina’s ball control and defense. he under is 5-1 when ECU has played this season. The under is also 3-0 when the total has been set at 54 or lower for ECU games. The under is 3-0 when Tulsa has played on the road. The under is 3-0 when the total has been set at 54 or higher.
Take the under on Thursday.
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