Tulsa vs. Memphis Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane will play the Memphis Tigers at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in American Athletic Conference football action. The Week 6 NCAAF game kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Memphis is a 20.5-point spread favorite, and the game total is 56.5 points scored.
This Tulsa vs. Memphis prediction highlights a Golden Hurricane squad that has lost three of its last four games and a Tigers team that is off to an undefeated start to the NCAAF season. Saturday's game marks the 33rd meeting between the Tulsa and Memphis football teams on the gridiron. The Tigers won the last meeting in 2022 and lead the all-time series 20-12.
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Tulsa has struggled to stop the run
Tulsa (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, and 1-4 O/U) has beaten Abilene Christian (35-7) and Oklahoma State (19-12), with losses against New Mexico State (21-14), Navy (42-23), and Tulane (31-14).
The Golden Hurricane was held scoreless in the second half of last week's home loss to the Green Wave, as they were a combined 5-for-18 on third and fourth down. The home team struggled to run the football, averaging 2.4 yards per carry, and committed two turnovers. Tulane took the early lead, and while Tulsa tied it up twice, the visitors never trailed in the conference clash.
The Golden Hurricane offense is paced by senior RB Dominic Richardson, who has turned his 98 carries into 490 yards (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns. Freshman Baylor Hayes (787 passing yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions) is Tulsa's starting QB, and junior WR Zion Booker (33 receptions for 283 yards and one TD) is the team's top pass-catcher.
Tulsa scores 21.0 points per game (107th) and averages 392.8 total yards (70th), including 223.4 passing yards (76th) and 169.4 rushing yards (62nd). The Golden Hurricane defense surrenders 22.6 points (60th) and 370.4 total yards (79th) per game, including 191.2 passing yards (51st) and 179.2 rushing yards (114th).
Memphis is a top contender in the AAC
Memphis (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, and 2-3 O/U) is off to one of its best starts in program history, taking down Chattanooga (45-10), Georgia State (38-16), Troy (28-7), Arkansas (32-31), and Florida Atlantic (55-26) to kick off the college football season. Will the Tigers continue to thrive versus AAC competition?
Memphis handled its business on the road at FAU last week, pouring it on with 31 points in the final quarter. The Tigers outgained the Owls by nearly 100 yards, averaging 10.3 yards per pass and 6.3 yards per carry. Florida Atlantic struggled to gain traction on the ground (2.6 YPC) and committed ten penalties.
Senior QB Brendon Lewis paces the Memphis offense with 1,003 passing yards (66.9% CMP%), five touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has also rushed for 353 yards and six scores, but has also been sacked ten times. The Tigers feature three players with at least 260 rushing yards, led by junior RB Sutton Smith (60 carries for 420 yards and five TDs). Senior WR Cortez Braham Jr. (22 receptions for 382 yards and four scores) and junior WR Jamari Hawkins (13 receptions for 239 yards) are the team's top receiving targets.
Memphis scores 39.6 points per game (15th) and averages 447.8 total yards (30th), including 200.6 passing yards (96th) and 247.2 rushing yards (12th). The Tigers' defense surrenders 18.0 points (34th) and 326.0 total yards (49th) per game, including 234.6 passing yards (89th) and 91.4 rushing yards (22nd).
Tulsa vs. Memphis Pick
Spread Pick for Tulsa vs. Memphis
- Tulsa +20.5 (5 Units)
The Tigers have a lot of momentum, but I question whether they will be locked in mentally after riding the high of five straight wins, especially with more impactful games upcoming on the schedule. They have covered the spread in all of their previous games, a trend that will be difficult to continue as large spread favorites this week. The Golden Hurricane is a well-balanced offensive team, ranking 62nd in rushing yards and 76th in passing yards, and they should be able to wear down the Tigers throughout the game, especially through the air.
I don't expect this matchup to be closely contested, but I don't envision Memphis playing well enough to win by three touchdowns in a conference game.
Over/Under Pick for Tulsa vs. Memphis
- Over 56.5 (5 Units)
The Tigers average almost 40 points per game. They won't be slowed down much by a Golden Hurricane defense that ranks 108th in third-down defense and has really struggled against the run. That's particularly concerning against Memphis' high-powered rushing attack. While a ground-heavy game plan would typically result in fewer possessions, the Tulsa defense is so overmatched in that department that the Tigers should be able to score quickly and often. As for the visitors, I expect the Tigers' secondary to give up too many explosive plays (115th in opponent long passing plays allowed), especially with the game already decided in the second half.
These teams will combine for 60-plus points on Saturday!
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