UAB Blazers vs. Tennessee Volunteers Prediction and Picks - September 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC Saturday afternoon on the College football gridiron, and we have a UAB vs. Tennessee Prediction ready to rock and roll for you. The Blazers enter this contest off a hard-fought 31-28 home win over Akron to move to 2-1 on the year. Tennessee comes in off a crushing 44-41 home loss to Georgia, which dropped them to 2-1 on the young season. These teams last met back in 2019 and Tennessee won that game 30-7 at home. Can the Blazers keep this one close? Read on to see our UAB vs. Tennessee Prediction.
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Blazers Survive Scare From Akron
UAB enters Neyland Stadium at 2–1, but the record masks some serious defensive concerns. The Blazers eked out a 31–28 win over Akron last week, allowing 282 passing yards and 159 rushing yards while averaging just 2.6 yards per carry themselves. Quarterback Jalen Kitna has been efficient, throwing for 892 yards and six touchdowns on 70% completions, but the offense has leaned heavily on short-area gains and yards after catch. Running back Jevon Jackson has been the most consistent weapon, averaging 92.3 rushing yards per game and adding a receiving score, while Corri Milliner and Iverson Hooks have emerged as reliable targets downfield.
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The problem is on defense—UAB ranks 131st in total yards allowed and 122nd in scoring defense, giving up 36 points per game. They’ve allowed 218.7 rushing yards per contest and a staggering 11.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks dead last in FBS. The Blazers have yet to force a turnover this season and are allowing opponents to convert nearly 58% of third downs. Against a Tennessee offense that ranks sixth nationally in scoring and total yards, that’s a recipe for disaster unless UAB can generate pressure and force mistakes early.
Kitna’s poise and Jackson’s versatility give UAB a puncher’s chance to move the ball, but they’ll need to be near-perfect to keep pace. Tennessee’s defense has been vulnerable at times, allowing 29 points per game, so there’s room for UAB to score. But if the Blazers fall behind early, their lack of defensive stops and inability to flip field position could turn this into a track meet they’re not built to win.
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The Vols Suffer Crushing Loss To Georgia
Tennessee comes in ranked No. 15 and looking to bounce back after a wild 44–41 loss to Georgia. Quarterback Joey Aguilar was brilliant despite the defeat, throwing for 371 yards and four touchdowns while connecting repeatedly with Chris Brazzell II, who racked up 177 yards and three scores on just six catches. The Volunteers are averaging 52.7 points per game and rank sixth nationally in total offense, with 568.7 yards per contest. They’ve been balanced, explosive, and efficient—converting nearly 58% of third downs and averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt.
The run game has been solid as well, with Star Thomas and DeSean Bishop combining for over 425 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Tennessee’s offensive line has kept Aguilar clean, and the Vols have committed just four turnovers through three games. Defensively, they’ve been bend-but-not-break, allowing 29 points per game but ranking 56th against the run and 108th against the pass. The secondary has struggled with deep shots, but they’ve also faced elite competition and have shown flashes of playmaking ability.
This matchup sets up well for Tennessee to get back on track. UAB’s defense is porous, and the Vols have the firepower to score quickly and often. Aguilar’s chemistry with Brazzell and Braylon Staley gives Tennessee multiple vertical threats, and the Blazers haven’t shown they can stop anyone through the air. If the Vols jump out early, they could cruise behind a steady dose of tempo and chunk plays. With Neyland rocking and the offense clicking, Tennessee is positioned to dominate both the scoreboard and the stat sheet.
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UAB vs. Tennessee Pick
UAB vs. Tennessee Spread Pick
- UAB +40 (5 Units)
UAB +40 is a strong situational play, especially with Tennessee coming off a draining, high-profile loss to Georgia in front of a national audience and ESPN’s Gameday spotlight. That kind of emotional peak often leads to a flat performance the following week, and the Vols are in a textbook letdown spot with Mississippi State looming on the road. Historically, this setup has been a fade: home teams off their first loss of the season, after allowing 35+ points, are just 13–29 ATS when facing an opponent that was favored in its previous game. UAB fits that mold after closing as chalk against Akron, and while their defense has been shaky, they’ve shown enough offensive structure to stay competitive for stretches.
Jalen Kitna’s efficiency and Jevon Jackson’s versatility give the Blazers a path to scoring in the teens or low 20s, which may be all they need to cover this inflated number if Tennessee’s urgency dips. The Vols have the firepower to blow teams out, but they’ve also allowed 29 points per game and rank 108th in pass defense—vulnerable enough for UAB to find pockets of success. With Tennessee likely to rotate personnel and manage reps late, especially if they build a lead, the backdoor cover is firmly in play. This isn’t about UAB winning—it’s about Tennessee being emotionally spent, looking ahead, and leaving just enough margin for the Blazers to sneak inside the number.
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UAB vs. Tennessee Over/Under Pick
- Over 69.5 (4 Units)
Over 69.5 is well within reach given the offensive firepower on both sides and the defensive vulnerabilities that have defined their seasons. Tennessee is averaging 52.7 points per game and ranks sixth nationally in total offense, while UAB has quietly put up 35.7 per contest despite inconsistent rushing production. The Blazers’ defense ranks 131st in total yards allowed and has surrendered 36 points per game, making them a prime target for Joey Aguilar and his vertical weapons. On the flip side, Jalen Kitna has thrown for nearly 900 yards and six touchdowns, and Tennessee’s secondary has been gashed for 248.3 passing yards per game. With both teams capable of scoring in bunches and neither defense built to slow tempo, this game has shootout written all over it.
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