UAB vs. Navy Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
Use Code WWWC UAB (1-0) travels to Annapolis to take on Navy (1-0) on Saturday at 3:30pmET from Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in this AAC matchup. These teams met last season in Birmingham, with the Mids winning 41-18 on the road. Navy opened their schedule last week with an easy win over FCS VMI 52-7. The Blazers had a little more trouble with their FCS opponent, Alabama State, winning 52-42, but didn't cover the 21 points. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Kitna back to boost Blazers
Jalen Kitna is a well-traveled quarterback who began his career at Florida. He had some off-the-field issues, so he moved on to UAB in 2024 to play for Trent Dilfer, another former pro quarterback like his father Jon. Jalen Kitna threw for 2,209 yards with 17 TDs and 11 picks in 2024. He's not a major threat to run, and amassed -60 yards last season. In the opener, Kitna completed 18 of 23 for 247 yards with two TDs and no picks.
The major issue for the Blazers in their first game was defense as they needed a seven-yard run from Solomon Beebe with 1:19 left to finish the game. At one point, the Blazers were down 28-17 in the third quarter. Defensively, they allowed 202 yards rushing (important in this matchup) and 312 yards passing. They also lost the time of possession battle 34:11 to 25:46. Defensively, the Blazers return just one starter so this could be an Achilles' heel and a work-in-progress.
Horvath is sharp in the opener
Navy returns most of their key players from a 10-3 team that upset Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl and, more importantly, defeated Army 31-13. The key returnee is QB Blake Horvath, who runs a version of the "Wing T", which still leans on the run, but offers more passing options than their old option attack did under former coach Ken Nimatololo. In the opener against VMI, Horvath completed 6 of 7 for 66 yards with one TD and ran just two times for 14 yards. He didn't have to play a ton because the Mids took a 28-0 halftime lead and started using backups in the second half.
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The key with Navy is always going to be their running attack. That's usually the staple of most military academies. Backup QB Braxton Woodson led the way on the ground against VMI with 180 yards on just seven carries with two touchdowns. Fullback Alex Tecza added 89 yards rushing on 15 carries with a TD. Navy's defense returns just three starters and that could be an issue in this game. That wasn't an issue against VMU, as the Navy defense held the Keydets to just 15 yards rushing and 197 yards passing.
UAB vs. Navy Pick
Spread Pick for UAB vs. Navy
- Navy -21 (4 units)
Navy is the better team in this matchup by far. Last season, UAB allowed 214 rushing yards per game on the ground and they didn't appear improved in their opening game against FCS Alabama State. In last year's match-up, the Mids produced 227 rushing yards and 225 passing yards in a very balanced attack. That game was never really close as Navy opened up a 311-3 lead in the third quarter and cruised the rest of the way. Expect a similar result from Annapolis, where Navy's Wing-T attack led by offensive coordinator Drew Cronic will be firing on all cylinders.
Over/Under Pick for UAB vs. Navy
- Over 58.5 (5 units)
Navy's defense could end up being a problem for them later in the season due to their inexperience. I seem them getting a very big lead and mixing in a lot of backups with starters. Navy's offense is difficult to stop when facing a normal defense. Now, they are facing a swiss cheese defense with one starter returning coming off an awful performance against an FCS squad. The good news is that Kitna will produce some points and should have a better game than last season when he struggled with two picks against Navy last September. Go over.
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