UCF Knights vs. Kansas State Wildcats Prediction and Picks – Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC The UCF Knights (3-0) are on the road to face the Kansas State Wildcats (1-3) in a Saturday noon Big 12 matchup at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
UCF looks to avoid last year’s collapse, when the Knights started 3-0 but limped to a 4-8 finish and just two conference wins. As for Kansas State, they are coming off a 9-4 campaign in 2024, but have stumbled out of the gate with three one-score losses in its first four games.
The Wildcats won the last head-to-head meeting 44-31 at home in 2023, and they’ll once again have the Manhattan crowd on their side.
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Will this season be a better story?
UCF has turned heads with a dominant 3-0 start, highlighted by last week’s 34-9 dismantling of North Carolina. Quarterback Tayven Jackson has been efficient and steady, completing over 70% of his passes for 694 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Jackson has also shown mobility, adding 140 rushing yards and two scores. Running back Jaden Nixon provides explosiveness, averaging nearly 15 yards per carry on limited attempts, while Myles Montgomery has been steady between the tackles.
The Knights’ balance shows up in the stats: they rank 35th nationally in total offense (449.3 yards per game) and 28th in scoring offense (39.7 points per game). But it’s the defense that has been most impressive. UCF is top-20 in total defense (246.3 ypg) and ranks sixth nationally in points allowed (8.7 ppg). Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 51% against a secondary ranked No. 5 in the FBS in passing yards allowed.
Still, discipline has been a concern, with UCF averaging more than 58 penalty yards per game, and questions remain about how this roster will handle its first true road test of the season. A year ago, the Knights’ early success faded once Big 12 play began, and this trip to Manhattan will serve as a critical measuring stick for their legitimacy in 2025.
UCF will be playing with heavy hearts as OL coach Shawn Clark passed away on Sunday at the age of 50. Clark was previously the head coach at Appalachian State, going 50-24.
Rough start for Kansas State
Kansas State entered the season with high expectations after last year’s 9-4 finish, but the Wildcats have been one of the Big 12’s early disappointments. They’ve dropped three of their first four contests, including close losses to Iowa State, Army, and Arizona. Last week’s 23-17 defeat to the Wildcats in Tucson summed up the issues: offensive inconsistency, poor third-down execution, and lack of running game balance.
Sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson has flashed promise with 851 yards and six touchdown passes, but he has completed just 60.6% of his throws and was held to 88 passing yards in the Arizona loss. Joe Jackson leads the backfield with only 136 rushing yards through four games, underscoring the team’s 121st-ranked rushing attack. Wideout Jayce Brown has been a bright spot, pacing the team with 284 receiving yards and two scores.
Defensively, the Wildcats are middle-of-the-pack overall, ranking 68th in total defense (352.8 ypg), but their rush defense has been gashed for 175.8 yards per game. That spells trouble against UCF’s ground-heavy offense. Kansas State also ranks dead last nationally in time of possession (24:23) and sits outside the top 100 in third-down conversions, a pair of metrics that have kept the defense on the field too long.
UCF vs Kansas State Pick
Spread Pick for UCF vs. Kansas State
- UCF Knights +6.5 (4 units)
Kansas State opened as a 6.5-point favorite, largely on name value and home-field advantage, but the early numbers point strongly toward UCF. The Knights are 2-1 against the spread, while Kansas State has yet to cover in four tries.
The low total also points towards the underdog as UCF’s defense is built to frustrate an already struggling K-State offense that ranks 117th in total yards and converts just 31% on third downs.
The Knights’ ability to create turnovers (+5 margin, 10th in FBS) and control the red zone (No. 2 nationally) makes them a live underdog. Kansas State may win in front of its home fans, but UCF has the firepower and defensive discipline to stay within the number.
Total Prediction
- Under 49.5 (4 units)
UCF’s defense has been suffocating, allowing fewer than nine points per game, and the Wildcats’ offensive struggles are well-documented, allowing just 24.3 points per game and near the bottom nationally in rushing production.
While UCF’s offense has averaged nearly 40 points, penalties and the first true road test, and first Big 12 game will lead to a less efficient performance on offense. Both of these teams have also not pushed the pace offensively with Kansas State ranked 72nd in plays per second and UCF 116th. I like the under.
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