UCF Knights vs BYU Cougars Prediction and Picks - November 29, 2025
Big 12 Saturday afternoon, College football action, and we have a UCF vs BYU prediction locked and loaded for you. The Knights enter this game at 5-6 on the year and off a 17-14 home win over Oklahoma State. BYU is off a 26-14 road win over Cincinnati, which puts them at 10-1 on the year. These teams met last year, and BYU won that game on the road by a score of 37-24. Can UCF get revenge and gain bowl eligibility at the same time? Read on to see our UCF vs BYU prediction.
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UCF Is Looking For Bowl Eligibility
UCF heads into the final weekend at 5-6 overall and 2-6 in Big 12 play, still clinging to bowl hopes after a 17-14 comeback win over Oklahoma State on November 22. The Knights trailed 14-0 at halftime but rallied behind quarterback Tayven Jackson, who threw a pair of second-half touchdown passes to Dylan Wade. The defense tightened up after the break, holding the Cowboys to just 22 yards in the second half, and a late field goal sealed the victory. It was a gritty performance that kept UCF’s postseason chances alive.
Offensively, the Knights have averaged 386.3 yards per game and 24.6 points per contest, leaning on a balanced attack. Jackson has thrown for 1,919 yards and six touchdowns, while running back RJ Nixon has been the big-play threat on the ground with 545 rushing yards and seven scores at 8.0 yards per carry. Mark Montgomery adds consistency with 676 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while Dylan Wade leads the receiving corps with 492 yards and four scores. UCF has shown flashes of explosiveness, but turnovers and inconsistency have kept them from breaking through against stronger opponents.
Defensively, UCF has been respectable, allowing just 22 points per game and 329 yards per outing. Their run defense has held opponents to 153 yards per game, while the secondary has given up 175 passing yards per contest. The Knights have forced 17 turnovers, and their ability to clamp down late was evident in the win over Oklahoma State. Against BYU, UCF will need to find ways to slow down LJ Martin and force quarterback Bear Bachmeier into mistakes, while hoping their offense can generate enough balance to stay competitive in Provo.
BYU Looks To Keep Playoff Hopes Alive
BYU enters at 10-1 overall and 7-1 in Big 12 play, fresh off a 26-14 road win over Cincinnati on November 22. Running back LJ Martin stole the show with a career-high 222 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including a 33-yard score in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier added a short rushing touchdown in the first quarter, and the Cougars’ defense held Cincinnati to just 87 rushing yards. The win kept BYU firmly in the Big 12 title hunt, with everything still on the line heading into the finale.
Offensively, the Cougars have been efficient, averaging 414.6 yards per game and 33.4 points per contest. Bachmeier has thrown for 2,304 yards and 13 touchdowns, while also rushing for 525 yards and 11 scores, giving BYU a dynamic dual-threat leader. Martin has been the workhorse with 1,134 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, while Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston headline the receiving corps with a combined 1,391 yards and nine scores. The Cougars’ ability to pound the ball on the ground while mixing in timely passing has made them one of the most balanced offenses in the conference.
Defensively, BYU has been outstanding, allowing just 17.5 points per game and 327 yards per outing, ranking among the top units nationally. Their run defense has limited opponents to 126 yards per game, while the secondary has held teams to 201 passing yards per contest. The Cougars have forced 20 turnovers, and their ability to control the line of scrimmage was evident against Cincinnati. Facing UCF, BYU will look to lean on Martin’s rushing attack and a defense that has consistently shut down opponents, with a chance to lock up a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
UCF vs BYU Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +706.00 |
UCF vs BYU Spread Pick
- UCF +17.5 (5 Units)
Taking UCF +17.5 has logic behind it because the Knights’ defense has been one of their steadier units all season, holding opponents to just 22 points per game and 329 total yards per outing. That kind of consistency gives them a chance to hang around even against a BYU team that’s been rolling offensively. In their win over Oklahoma State, UCF showed resilience by shutting down the Cowboys in the second half, and that ability to adjust mid-game could help them limit BYU’s explosive rushing attack led by LJ Martin.
On the flip side, BYU has been dominant, averaging over 33 points per game and more than 414 yards of offense, but UCF’s defense matches up better than most against the Cougars’ balanced approach. If the Knights can lean on RJ Nixon and Mark Montgomery to sustain drives and keep Bear Bachmeier off the field, they can shorten the game and stay within the number. With UCF’s defense capable of forcing mistakes and BYU unlikely to completely blow them out, grabbing the +17.5 looks like a reasonable play.
UCF vs BYU Over/Under Pick
- Under 47.5 (4 Units)
The Under 47.5 looks appealing because BYU’s defense has been one of the best in the Big 12, allowing just 17.5 points per game, while UCF’s offense has been inconsistent, averaging only 24.6 points per contest. The Knights rely on their defense to stay competitive, holding opponents to 22 points per game, and that unit has shown it can slow down explosive attacks. With BYU leaning heavily on LJ Martin’s rushing game to control tempo and UCF trying to grind possessions to keep things close, this matchup sets up for a slower pace and fewer total points, making the under a strong angle.
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