UCF Knights vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The UCF Knights (3-2, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U) take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) in a Big 12 showdown on Saturday afternoon, and we have everything you need to know and the prediction. The Knights dropped a home game vs. Kansas in their previous clash. The Bearcats posted a home win against Iowa State last week. Cincinnati issued a 19-13 road win in the meeting last season.
Can Cincinnati remain unbeaten in conference play on Saturday afternoon? Check out the UCF vs. Cincinnati prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Picks
UCF Eyes First Conference Win of Season
The UCF Knights are searching for their first conference win of the season. UCF had a promising start to the season, netting a 3-0 record after three games, including a win against the Tar Heels. They dropped a road meeting against Kansas State two weeks ago and were kept in check in a 27-20 home loss against Kansas State last week in a bout that had the Knights marked as 3.5-point dogs. The Knights have covered the spread in two of five games on the season.
Tayven Jackson does not attempt many passes, about 20-25 per game. The junior QB exited after recording 97 passing yards in the defeat last week due to an injury. He is questionable. Jackson has recorded 906 passing yards and a 3:1 TD to INT ratio. Myles Montgomery has been a threat, reaching 100 rushing yards on two occasions. The senior running back has netted 110 yards last week and has earned 378 rushing yards on the season. Jalen Nixon is also a threat, amassing 286 yards.
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The receiving core is mediocre. Duane Thomas Jr. has been tagged the most. The junior WR has posted 55 or fewer receiving yards in all but one game and has 245 receiving yards on the season. The UCF offense put up 375 total yards last week. They are posting an average of 425 yards per game.
The Knights' defense is their top strength. They have kept their opponent to 10 or fewer points in three of five games this season. The unit conceded 375 total yards last week. They are keeping opponents to only 305 yards per game on the year. Lewis Carter has 32 tackles. The pass defense is 15th, while the rush defense is rated 85th
UCF is scoring an average of 31.8 points on the season, ranking them 52nd. The Knights are conceding an average of only 17.4 points, good for 29th in the country.
Cincinnati Improves to 2-0 in AAC Action
The Cincinnati Bearcats are seeking their fifth win of the season. Cincinnati lost its season opener against Nebraska and has been dominant since. They took advantage of an easy schedule in non-conference play, including a win against Bowling Green. The Bearcats defeated Kansas in their conference opener and posted a huge 38-30 home win against Iowa State last week to cover the one-point spread. They stand at 2-0 in Big 12 play. The Bearcats have covered the spread in all but one game.
Brendan Sorsby is having an outstanding season. The junior QB wasn’t as sharp as usual last week, posting only 215 yards, but has reached 300 yards in two games. Sorsby has reported 1259 passing yards and a 12:1 TD to INT ratio and has added 291 yards on the ground. The running game is a strength. Tawee Waker has posted at least 50 rushing yards in all but one game. The senior RB has amassed 315 rushing yards an average of 5.6 yards per rush.
Cyrus Allen has earned 50 or more receiving yards in two of his past three games. The senior WR leads the squad with 295 receiving yards. Caleb Goodie is just behind with 337 yards. The Cincinnati offense racked up 478 total yards last week. They are averaging 479 yards per game.
The Bearcats' defense is also a strength. The group had some trouble against a potent offense last week, surrendering 465 total yards. They have conceded 20 or fewer points in three of five games. Safety Christian Harrison has made 27 tackles. The defense is keeping opponents to an average of 356 yards per game. The pass defense is pegged 109th, while the rush defense is stingy, coming in at 29th.
Cincinnati is averaging 39.5 points on the year, good for 15th. The Bearcats are keeping opponents to 18.5 points, placing them 32nd.
UCF vs. Cincinnati Pick
Spread Pick for UCF vs. Cincinnati
- UCF Knights +11.5 (5 units)
The UCF Knights are a solid squad with strong numbers on offense and defense. The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a groove, but this could be a classic trap game where they underestimate the opponent. They only played one road game after five games and won that won by just three points.
Furthermore, Cincinnati relies on its passing game, which ranks 21st. This is good news for the Knights, who have a stingy pass defense that is holding opponents to just 150 passing yards per game, good for 15th in the country. The UCF offense is potent. Tayven Jackson has connected on 65% of his passes. This spread is at 10 points because Jackson is questionable for this game with an injury. I don't see this as an issue, considering they have a ton of depth at QB with Jacurri Brown, who has spent time with Miami. Also, the UCF offense relies on its running game. They are averaging 202 rushing yards per game, ranking them 32nd. The Bearcats gave up 151 rushing yards last week.
Over/Under Pick for UCF vs. Cincinnati
- Over 54 (5 units)
I expect a shootout. UCF has a dangerous offense. They are averaging 425 yards per game. The Bearcats' defense has been shaky. They squandered 465 total yards last week. They have surrendered 68 points in their last two games.
In addition, Cincinnati is racking up the points. They have scored 37 and 38 points in their past two games against conference opponents. The Knights have squandered 61 points in their past two games. Cincinnati is going to have success on the ground. They are averaging 191 rushing yards per game, and are up against a Knights rush defense squandering 155 rushing yards per game. The over is a convincing 4-1 in the Bearcats' previous five games.
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