UCLA vs. Michigan State Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 11th, 2025
Use Code WWWC In this UCLA at Michigan State prediction, the Bruins head East to take on the Spartans at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday afternoon. The Bruins are coming off a huge upset win over Penn State at home, their first win of the season. The Spartans are 3-2 on the season. The opening kick is scheduled for 12:00 pm EST. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
UCLA fresh off a shocking upset win
The UCLA Bruins were winless heading into Saturday’s home tilt with 7th-ranked Penn State. The Bruins were a three-touchdown underdog but surprised the Nittany Lions in a 42-35 win, the first under interim head coach Tom Skipper. The win was the Bruins’ first win over a top-ten team since the 2010 season.
"We wanted to control the game," Interim head coach Skipper said. "That's why we wanted to run the ball, and it all starts with the big boys up front. They have to control the line of scrimmage. They were creating openings. We know their D-line and linebackers are really good, so we had to put bodies on those guys. We just wanted to control it one play at a time, just take it one play at a time, and that's exactly what we did. We actually have never talked about not leading for a game – somebody told me about it, that's how I knew. We never talked about it or anything. We just went out there and played ball today."
UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava was the story for the Bruins. He finished 16-of-24 for 166 yards and two touchdowns. He also led the Bruins in rushing, finishing up with 128 yards on 16 carries. He had three rushing touchdowns, accounting for all five of the Bruins’ touchdowns on Saturday afternoon. Running back Javian Thomas had 51 yards on nine carries, and fellow back Anthony Woods had 63 yards on 14 carries. Wide receiver Kwazi Gilmer had five catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. UCLA had 435 yards of total offense, averaging 5.6 yards per play.
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Defensively, survived a furious Penn State comeback, turning away the Nittany Lions deep in their territory to seal the win. The Bruins allowed 357 yards of total offense and forced a fumble in the contest. Key Lawrence, Jalen Woods, and Isaiah Chisom led the team with eight tackles each. The Bruins had six tackles for loss in the game, including one sack.
UCLA is 102nd in the country in points per game this season. The results drastically changed on Saturday, the first game under new offensive coordinator Jerry Neuheisel. The team is 34th in the country on the ground and 99th in passing. They have been efficient in the red zone, tied for the top spot in the country in red zone offense. The Bruins are 88th in the country in sacks allowed this season. Defensively, the Bruins are just 106th in the nation in scoring defense. They are 121st against the run and 25th against the pass. The Bruins’ defense ranks 47th in the nation in red zone defense. They are just 115th in the country in sacks per game. UCLA has hurt itself with penalties, ranked 120th in penalty yards per game this season. The team is 69th in turnover margin and 97th in time of possession.
Key Injuries: WR Carter Shaw is questionable.
Spartans look for home cooking
After starting the season fast, posting a 3-0 record, the Spartans have now dropped two straight games as they get into the heart of Big Ten play. Last week, the Spartans lost their second straight conference game, both on the road, this time to Nebraska, 38-27. They’ll go for their first conference win this week over the visiting UCLA Bruins.
"I think the big thing offensively, look at it, it's 2 of 14 on third-down. You ain't gonna have much success doing that. We've gotta give them a better plan, we've gotta execute it better, we're back to the (lack of) balance. I didn't love some of the run game to start the third quarter, that's why some of the fourth-downs came up so huge. We've gotta find a way to keep pushing, staying together. This is what I told them – if we want to finish better, we've gotta stay together, we've gotta play better." Head coach Jonathan Smith said after the game.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles was just 9-of-23 for 85 yards and two interceptions, but did score twice on the ground for the Spartans. Running back Makhi Frazier had 58 yards on 18 carries for the game. Nick Marsh led the Spartans in receiving with 41 yards on four catches. In total, the Spartans had 240 yards of total offense. They did win the time of possession battle, but turned the ball over four times in the loss.
Linebacker Jordan Hall led the defensive charge with a team-leading eight tackles. He also ended a Cornhuskers’ drive with his first career interception. Defensive end Jalen Thompson had a big day with five tackles and two tackles for loss, including a sack. Michigan State held the high-powered Nebraska offense to just 260 yards of total offense, including just 67 yards on the ground. They were done in by the multiple turnovers committed by the offense.
Michigan State is ranked 43rd in the nation in scoring. The Spartans are 98th in rushing and 98th through the air. The team is 30th in red zone offense thus far. The offensive line has had issues, ranked just 126th in sacks allowed this season. Defensively, the Spartans are 105th in the country in scoring defense. They are 38th against the run and 99th against the pass. The Spartans’ defense is just 116th in red zone defense. The team is 43rd in sacks per game. They are 24th in turnover margin and 24th in time of possession.
Key Injuries: K Tarik Ahmetbasic and RB Jace Clarizio are questionable.
UCLA vs. Michigan StateÂ
Point Spread pick for UCLA vs. Michigan StateÂ
- UCLA +8.5 (4 units)
The Spartans have not played well in either of their first two Big Ten games, both losses on the road. They come home on Saturday after a miserable performance offensively, turning the ball over four times and throwing for less than 100 yards passing. UCLA looked like a different team last week in its massive upset win against Penn State. The Bruins moved the ball well, particularly on the ground. They also showed some life through the air and can take advantage of a Spartans’ defense that is ranked just 99th in pass defense. The new coaching staff breathed some new life into a terrible season and faces a team whose coaching staff is likely on the hot seat right now. The Bruins should be able to pressure the quarterback in this game, and that could lead to another turnover-filled game for the Spartans. I expect this game to be close and will gladly take the 8.5-point spread.
Take UCLA +8.5
Over/Under Pick for UCLA at Michigan StateÂ
- Over 55.5 (5 units)
UCLA proved last week that, when their ground game complements their passing game, the team can put up points. The Bruins are certainly adept in the red zone, ranked first in the country. The Spartans’ turnovers cost them a good scoring night last week, but they are ranked 43rd in the nation in points per game. This one will likely resemble the Penn State/UCLA game from last week, and the team with the ball last could potentially win this game. I expect this one to go over the number.
Take the over.
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