UL Monroe vs. Alabama Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 6, 2025
UL Monroe Warhawks (1-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (0-1)
Week 2 of the 2025 college football season is here, so we are breaking down Saturday’s non-conference showdown from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL, to get you the UL Monroe vs. Alabama prediction.
The Warhawks meet the Crimson Tide for the first time since September 17, 2022, when Alabama dismantled UL Monroe 63-7 as a 49.5-point home fave. The Tide are 36.5-point home favorites this time around, while the total sits at 50.5 points.
Read more about this UL Monroe vs. Alabama prediction, and check out all our NCAAF picks for Week 2. The kick-off at Bryant-Denny Stadium is set at 7:45 PM ET.
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The Warhawks had an easy job in Week 1
The UL Monroe Warhawks cruised past Saint Francis 29-0 in Week 1. They outgained the Red Flash 434-131 in total yards but failed to cover a 31.5-point spread in front of the home fans.
The Warhawks rolled over the Red Flash, posting a whopping 311 yards on 43 carries. Junior RB Braylon McReynolds led the charge with 11 totes for 113 yards, while sophomore RB Tyrell Reed Jr. amassed 47 yards on seven carries. McReynolds also had two receptions for 20 yards and a touchdown.
Sophomore QB Aidan Armenta went 12-of-23 for 95 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Armenta carried the pigskin five times for 39 yards and a TD, while fellow sophomore QB Landon Graves completed two of his three passing attempts for 28 yards and a TD.
Last season, Armenta threw for 1,292 yards, nine touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 12 games. The Warhawks ranked 117th in the country in scoring offense (21.0 points per game) and 93rd in scoring defense (28.8). They went 5-7 overall and 3-5 in the Sun Belt.
The Warhawks relied on their ground game in 2024. However, they lost Ahmad Hardy, who rushed 237 times for 1,351 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. McReynolds had just 111 rushing yards and a touchdown at South Alabama in 2024.
The Tide look for a bounce-back performance
The No. 21 Alabama Crimson Tide suffered a 31-17 defeat at Florida State this past Saturday. They were 13.5-point favorites over the Seminoles, but the Tide played lousy defense while committing eight penalties for 70 yards.
Florida State outgained Alabama 382-341 in Week 1. The Seminoles rushed 49 times for 230 yards, and QB Tommy Castellanos led the way with 78 rushing yards and a TD. All four of their touchdowns came on the ground, whereas Alabama posted just 87 yards on 29 carries.
The Tide relied on their passing offense last Saturday. Junior signal-caller Ty Simpson went 23-of-43 for 254 yards and two touchdowns. Senior WR Germie Bernard posted eight catches for 146 yards, and senior tight end Josh Cuevas had three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown.
Simpson logged six relief appearances in 2024, completing 14 of his 25 passing attempts for 167 yards. The Crimson Tide lost QB Jalen Milroe, who was selected by the Seattle Seahawks in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Milroe was a proper dual-threat last season, and Alabama was scoring 33.8 points per game (22nd in the nation) while tallying 173.8 rushing yards (47th). On the other side of the ball, the Tide ranked 10th in scoring defense (17.4) and 48th in rushing defense (137.8). They went 9-4 overall and 5-3 in the SEC.
UL Monroe vs. Alabama Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for UL Monroe vs. Alabama
- Alabama -36.5 (5 units)
Alabama’s streak of 23 straight wins in season openers came to an end. The Tide’s run defense was awful in Week 1, and I expect a much better performance when they host the Warhawks in Week 2. UL Monroe tortured Saint Francis last week, but the Warhawks won’t be able to replicate that performance against a much stronger rival.
The Tide must be angry and ready to prove their worth. There are a lot of talented players on their roster, and the clash against UL Monroe is a perfect opportunity for a bounce-back performance. The Warhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and 1-4 ATS in their previous five showings as underdogs of 36 or more points.
Over/Under Pick for UL Monroe vs. Alabama
- Under 50.5 (5 units)
The Tide’s offensive line struggled to cope with Florida State in Week 1. Now, Alabama is going to bully the Warhawks, whose run defense is far from an elite level. Last year, UL Monroe ranked 121st in the country in rushing yards allowed per game (200.1).
I expect both teams to pound the rock and eat the clock. The Warhawks will struggle to move the chains and could easily fail to score in double digits. The line is a tricky one, but I have to take the under. UL Monroe has scored three points in each of its last three outings as a dog of 36 or more points, and two of those three games have seen fewer than 51 points on the scoreboard.
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